Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
April 29, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Matthew Huntley: Like most industry observers, I'm surprised by this figure, especially since the trailer made the movie look awful (and judging by the critical reception, that's exactly what it is [although I haven't seen it yet]) and b ecause Cameron Diaz's drawing power in the past few years has waned. Therefore, I would have pegged The Other Woman to open more in the $14-$16 million range. But if I had to attribute a reason to its mid-20s debut, I'd say it was mostly due to the under-served female demographic, who hasn't had a movie to themselves since the rom coms of February and Divergent, which has been out for more than a month. The past few weeks have been dominated by male or family-oriented fare, and perhaps The Other Woman was an option that women felt was finally worth making a trip to the movies for.
It's hard to say where the movie will go from here and how strong its legs will be. On the one hand, it will still have its audience all to itself (even with The Amazing Spider-Man 2 opening); on the other, its reviews are terrible and it could be slammed by poor word-of-mouth. I guess we'll know in a week.
Jason Barney: This is a really impressive intro weekend on a number of fronts. First and foremost it blew expectations out of the water, nearly doubling the forecast of BOP’s own Reagan Sulewski. To be fair, predicting the performance of a new entry into the market place on a weekly basis is not easy, but this is far above everyone’s expectations. Second, movie goers are saturated with options right now. Last weekend featured four new openers. Two weeks ago there were three. The Other Woman had its own calendar competition as it was one of three to hit the big screen this week. Third, the weekend prior to the unofficial start of summer is usually one of the dartboards for the movie industry. An assortment of projects slide into this slot. Last year it was Pain & Gain and The Big Wedding. In 2012 there were four options, Pirates, Band of Misfits, Safe, The Raven, and The Five Year Engagement. The first weekend of May has received event status with the unofficial arrival of the big budget blockbusters, and the last weekend of April, generally, represents a bit of a sigh for the movie industry.
What The Other Woman has managed to achieve here is significant. It has latched onto the counter-programming success of late spring which is very likely to expand into the action movies of early summer. When Amazing Spider-Man 2 opens next weekend, this will be a viable option for those tired of the superhero mania. In past years The Big Wedding and the Five Year Engagement were really not able to garner the counter programming interest, but there have been a few breakout successes like this. In 2010 Date Night really did well. In 2011 it was Bridesmaids.
This $40 million film should have little trouble making its budget back.
Edwin Davies: As others have said, this is surprising considering that the film looked really quite bad, but at the same time it's easy to see why it did well being released prior to the "official" start of the blockbuster season. It's been a while since a film aimed directly at women has been out, so there was pent up demand for something that could serve as a girls' night out type of thing. It's also very rare for a film to be headlined entirely by women which doesn't also include some romantic subplot (for example: Bridesmaids was mainly about the relationship between Kristen Wiig and Maya Rudolph, but it still had Chris O'Dowd in the mix as well) so there was a novelty factor there which, along with the revenge aspect, set the film apart.
I don't expect that the film will do terribly well going forward (Bridesmaids had great reviews and word-of-mouth, which helped it become one of the leggiest comedies in recent memory, and neither of which The Other Woman has), but even a Sex and the City-style performance would leave it with a final tally north of $70 million. I'd expect it to do a touch better than that, if only because it'll be one of the only games in town for a little while, as far as overtly female-orientated films go, and so could work as counter programming for a few weeks.
Kim Hollis: I wasn’t quite expecting mid-20s for The Other Woman, but I’m not surprised by the number at all. As many have mentioned, there haven’t been any recent films targeted to a specifically female audience. Sure, there have been the romances like Endless Love, but I think we’ve seen recently that cookie cutter stuff like that has to have some kind of a hook to attract viewers. With more straightforward comedy, I think it’s easier to sell to a broader audience, and possibly get some men into theaters in the process. Sex and the City really did revolutionize the concept of “Girls’ Night Out” in the movie theater, and I do think it’s a solid marketing approach that works for the right film. The Other Woman was just such a film, and some would argue that some of its attraction is that it’s empowering for women, though I don’t really agree (they’re pretty consistently defined in relation to a dude throughout the entire film, after all).
Bruce Hall: This was an ideal weekend to open. Demographically speaking there's no real competition right now, and as has been mentioned, the closest thing to a girl-friendly major release might be Divergent, which opened in March. Women have indeed been under served lately, and the fact it took a revenge flick to remedy that seems oddly fitting.
But of course next week Spider-Man opens, so say your goodbyes to The Other Woman now.
David Mumpower: Spider-Man impacts the performance of The Other Woman about as much as the NBA playoffs do, by which I mean none at all. What I admire about The Other Woman's opening weekend performance is that there was no attempt to do too much here. Instead, a minimalist approach was taken. The advertising was infrequent enough that nobody was tired of the commercials by the time the movie was released. The publicity for the film was understated. The entire campaign felt subtle but effective and in the end, that's exactly what it proved to be. I think that a lot of people trying to sell star-driven films should study carefully the tactics employed on The Other Woman.
Max Braden: I think the plot was a big part of the success. There have probably been less successful female-'revenge' movies (though I can't recall any at the moment) but the movie this one reminds me of is 9 to 5. Though romantic comedies are often thought of as chick flicks, they still frequently feature the lead female character as someone whose life is defined by men. It's also all too infrequent to see a comedy with a mostly female cast working together rather than against each other. With movies like 9 to 5 and The Other Women, the female characters get to take charge. I'm sure that was a draw for female audiences, but of course the sexy cast is easy on the eyes for male audiences as well. This must be one of the best female-ensemble openings since Sex In the City.
Kim Hollis: Who benefits the most from the success of The Other Woman?
Matthew Huntley: My gut tells me Cameron Diaz, since she got top billing and the trailer essentially made it look like her vehicle. After this weekend, I think we can expect more scripts for comedies of this nature to end up on her desk, although if she's smart, she'll avoid them and choose better, more substantive roles. The world can do without movies like The Sweetest Thing and (probably) The Other Woman.
Edwin Davies: I'd go with Diaz primarily, with Kate Upton as a possible secondary figure. Diaz has had some considerable success in the past, but she's also coming off a disappointment in What to Expect When You're Expecting and an outright bomb in The Counselor. Both were ensemble films, but she was the main star of the former and her, er, auto-erotic performance in the latter came in for plenty of derision, so being the headline star of a decent hit reasserts her status as a draw in the right projects. However, it could just as easily backfire on her if the word-of-mouth on the film is bad, in that it could make people skip the similarly raunchy comedy Sex Tape, which comes out in July.
Upton, meanwhile, has her most high-profile role to date after bit parts in The Three Stooges and Tower Heist, which will no doubt boost her profile as an actress, even though her actual ability seems a little dubious at this stage. Still, being prominently featured in a hit film so early in your career can't hurt (she's almost the same age that Cameron Diaz was when she successfully transitioned from model to comedic actress with The Mask) and will probably afford her more opportunities going forward.
Bruce Hall: With much of the attention surrounding this movie going to Diaz, the easy money is that her career gets the biggest immediate boost from this, at least in the minds of the public. But Leslie Mann is quietly putting together the kind of resume that certainly has its peaks and valleys, but also increases the chances of her finally landing a career role that takes advantage of all her gifts. This is not that movie, but forget who she's married to - I think it's coming, and it's coming on merit.
Kim Hollis: This feels like a movie that benefits Leslie Mann, though I’m having trouble quantifying that belief. All comments I’ve heard are that she steals the movie (and that she’s basically the best part of a terrible film), so I think she could see some carryover with regard to recognition that she might not have had previously as more of a character player in Apatow’s films and stuff like 17 Again.
Reagen Sulewski: I have to agree that Mann is probably the best one to bet on following this - this is her first hit in ages without her husband anywhere involved, and it's much more legitimizing than Knocked Up or This is 40. She's a very funny woman, who has mostly not been in the public eye for a long time, and thus is not overexposed and doesn't have a ton of baggage weighing her down. I don't know if her range is huge, but I'd be throwing her some scripts if I were a producer right now.
Max Braden: Had this flopped I would expect Diaz to take most of the blame. The reviews aren't good, but with the box office numbers I think it helps keep Diaz and Mann afloat, but I wouldn't call that a “win” for them, more like a wash. I think the under the radar wins here are really for Upton and Minaj. Debuting from non-acting fields can lead to knee-jerk "she should go back to modeling/singing" reviews, but it sounds like neither screwed up, which means they now get to say they were in a solid box office movie and deserve to be in another.
David Mumpower: I'm going to answer differently from everyone else. I believe that Kate Upton is aided the most. Mann and Diaz's careers were already secure, even if Diaz has struggled lately. Upton established herself in a hit film and in a role where was more than just a sexy nun (I feel like I'm going to Hell simply for typing those words), her forgettable role in The Three Stooges. Upton has a ubiquity that matters more to this generation of celebrities than in past eras. Establishing herself as a viable lead provides another avenue to sustain her popularity. I also believe that Nicolaj Coster-Waldau receives a boost for being the male lead in a hit movie. All of the Game of Thrones actors are receiving opportunities in major motion pictures. The artist currently known as Jaime Lannister was just a background character to the many Tom Cruises in Oblivion. With The Other Woman, he takes center stage and does so well enough to justify further work as a male lead.