Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
June 24, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: I think it's a good or merely okay result depending on how you view it. In terms of the film as a standalone prospect, it made its production budget back before the weekend was out and will probably see a tidy profit by the time it exits theaters. That's nothing to be sniffed at, and Think Like a Man Too will probably be a win for everyone concerned. However, it's a follow-up to a fairly popular film, and one that was clearly designed to capitalize on the drastically increased profile of one of the stars, yet it was not able to grow the audience from the first film, and actually shot under it by several million. Plus, even though it won the weekend, it was actually only the number one film at the box office for its first day; on Saturday it trailed 22 Jump Street, and on Sunday it fell to third behind Jump Street and How to Train your Dragon 2. That suggests some front loading, and I doubt the film will get close to the total of the first film. Think Like a Man Too will be a win, but it's not as big of a win as the studio were probably hoping for.
Matthew Huntley: Edwin always has a way of writing exactly what I think before I have a chance to respond, and his assessment on the performance of Think Like a Man Too is no different. I agree - this is a good, healthy start given the movie's budget, and despite good audience (as opposed to critical) reception, I think the road ahead will be short. I don't think it will tumble and be out of theaters as fast as last February's About Last Night, but it will likely top out around $65 million total - a solid figure, but far from earth-shattering. Will this be enough to justify a third installment? Perhaps, but it might also run of the risk of turning people off the characters/premise just like The Hangover sequels did.
Bruce Hall: A lot has been made of the fact that Think Like a Man Too (am I the only one who thinks of the Dumb and Dumber sequel every time I see that title?) earned slightly less than the original's opening weekend haul. All 11 articles I've read about this weekend's box office mentioned it before the end of the first paragraph. And while I understand it makes for good conversation, I also kind of don't care.
Nobody expected the original to be a hit in the first place, and I don't recall seeing the internet petition for a sequel. Few people would care had "Too" never existed - as evidenced by the aforementioned ho-hum opening - but it's still going to be extremely profitable before all is said and done.
As I've said many times, any time you make your production budget back opening, it's okay to buy champagne. I'd even say that's true if you don't finish the week at number one, but this movie DID - and against a strong holdover from last weekend. It goes down as a win for the franchise, the studio, and Kevin Hart. And yes, there's probably going to be a sequel, most likely with a "3" worked into the title somehow.
Dibs on "Think Lik3 a Man"
Jay Barney: This is a very good opening considering the production budget. It is probably a film that I am not going to go see, but I think it is worth noting when a studio invests in the path to success and it works. Sure, this is not going to be the earner that the original was, but if the money making formula is in place, and a studio only needs to throw a sequel out there to make money, why shouldn't they? Yes we all want to be entertained, and yes we want quality, but studios need to earn the money first.
And despite the drop off from the original, this film is already a recipe for success. It surpassed its production budget in week one, and will likely get beyond marketing costs in the next couple of weeks. I don't think it is going to be around very long, but it is going to make money.
Max Braden: That's an impressive weekend number. I agree it probably isn't indicative of a strong overall run, but that's probably evidence that the audience was saying "We're just here for Kevin Hart." The movie may have opened to half this number without him. And even if the movie falls off, Hart gets to point to another big opening on his filmography.
David Mumpower: I agree with Bruce in that sometimes too much is asked of a product. Think Like a Man was never intended to be a franchise. It was a one-off film in the same vein as the briefly ubiquitous star cast romance movies such as Valentine’s Day, He’s Just Not That into You and Couples Retreat. After New Year’s Eve bombed dramatically, studios ran away from such projects. Since Think Like a Man had already been filmed, Warner Bros. was stuck with it but then rewarded because the genuinely entertaining movie became a pleasant surprise at the box office. Nobody expected even that from it, much less a sequel.
Fast forward to today. The luckiest aspect of Think Like a Man was the casting of diminutive funnyman Kevin Hart. The trailers highlighted all of his best jokes such as, “Look at how small your skirt is!” In the process, they leveled up Hart as a box office draw. He has experienced only success over the interim since the original film came out, including Ride Along a few months ago. I suspect that the blockbuster nature of that film elevated expectations for a needless sequel to a surprise hit. In reality, Think Like a Man’s $33.6 million was always the reasonable high end for its sequel. $29.2 million represents a dazzling return for a $24 million production, so I see nothing but good news here.
Kim Hollis: Jersey Boys, an adaptation of the Broadway musical from Clint Eastwood, opened to $13.3 million this weekend. What do you think of this result?
Edwin Davies: This is pretty par for the course for Eastwood's films, and is actually his best wide-release opening since Space Cowboys opened to $18 million back in 2000 (he's had some pretty huge hits since then, most notably Mystic River, Million Dollar Baby and Gran Torino, but they all opened in limited release, racked up impressive numbers there, then slowly expanded). Considering that the musical is one of the most popular Broadway shows ever, this result has to be considered pretty disappointing, and this opening can be chalked solely up to goodwill from that show and curiosity about what Eastwood would do with a musical, since the trailers and the reviews didn't make the film seem enticing. However, considering that it skews decidedly older than pretty much every other film currently in release (or due to be released in the near future), and older audiences don't rush out on opening weekend, there is a chance that it might have legs and be able to quietly chug along for the rest of the summer. Since word-of-mouth is mixed at best, though, I'd be surprised if it winds up making its $40 million budget back domestically.
Matthew Huntley: This has to be viewed as a disappointment, but given that this is an adult-skewing, R-rated musical, is it really that surprising? I question Warner Bros.' decision to open the movie in the middle of the summer season anyway, since even mature adults - to whom this film is geared - typically flock to what's popular over what's substantive this time of year. Unfortunately, the mixed reviews and subject matter don't suggest Jersey Boys will be in the black any time soon.
Bruce Hall: I think America has spoken. This is an official disappointment almost any way you look at it, but that's mainly due to the pedigree of the material. There's no doubt expectations were somewhat higher for this, as Jersey Boys opened in more theaters than anything Eastwood has ever done. Unfortunately in light of that, this weekend's per theater average looks a little closer to something that's been out three weeks, rather than three days.
Still, this result is actually on the high end for Eastwood's directorial work. I don't think it's unfair to call him a "boutique" artist at this stage of his career. He is an elder statesman of Hollywood and an artist who's not afraid to stretch himself. Something tells me more lifetime achievement awards are in his future, and plans to dig his star off the Walk of Fame can be put on hold.
Jay Barney: I am not surprised that it opened on the low end of expectations, but this is another one where a wait and see approach will be best. The production budget of nearly $40 million will be steep against this initial showing, but there is a chance the older crowds will come out during the summer.
It is interesting that Hollywood has fully embraced the summer musical now, even though some are not getting the fan support you would expect. Rock of Ages comes to mind.
Overall, though, this opening has to be seen as a bit of a disappointment. Opening in fourth is not a great accomplishment, nor is barely beating Maleficent, which has been out for a month. So over all this opening is on the blah side, and Jersey Boys has a lot of work to do.
Max Braden: I grew up in New Jersey and had no interest in seeing this movie (nor the source material). All I could think about from seeing the trailer was "Didn't Tom Hanks already do this with That Thing You Do!, and didn't it look more fun?" I didn't recognize anybody but Christopher Walken, so the cast didn't help anything. I actually think it was lucky to pull in this much money opening weekend.
David Mumpower: Looking at this a different way, the best recent comparison is Rock of Ages. Yes, I realize that sounds crazy due to the tone of the films. The key is that Rock of Ages was the only other summer musical release of similar scale. That film cost $70 million to produce while grossing $14.4 million on opening weekend. Jersey Boys required a financial outlay of “only” $40 million while generating $13.3 million. For this reason, I think that disappointment is too strong a term for the result. It is effectively a box office draw that will wind up in the black over the years.