Daily Box Office Analysis
By David Mumpower
July 15, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
The number one movie in North America for the fourth consecutive day is Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. In the process, it ended the two weeks of dominance demonstrated by Transformers 4. The latest Planet of the Apes flick grossed $8.2 million on Monday, raising its current domestic total to $80.8 million. I would also add that despite some dire projections, the monkey movie’s $73 million estimate was only slightly above the $72.6 million actual weekend total. There were a lot of skeptics who believed that the World Cup final with its 26.5 million viewers would create a Super Bowl-like Sunday impact. In such a scenario, everything in release would have taken a huge hit that day. Fortunately, any impact was negligible, enabling Dawn of the Planet of the Apes to continue to perform very well.
How strong a hold did the number one movie have on Monday? Its Sunday-to-Monday decline is 58%, meaning it held 42% of its weekend business on its first weekday. That is right in line with Age of Extinction, which managed 41%, albeit with a much larger number of $10.5 million. It is similar to last week’s Tammy, which had a 43% hold. Some other comparisons to provide frame of reference are How to Train Your Dragon (37% retention), Edge of Tomorrow (41% retention), Think Like a Man Too (37% retention) and 22 Jump Street (52% retention). Relative to scale, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes had a solid first weekday. We will evaluate it more over the next pair of columns, of course, but my belief as of this moment is that it will be less front-loaded than some of the other blockbusters released this summer. To a larger point, the entire summer to date should provide a cautionary tale regarding the seminal important of quality in determining a movie’s domestic take, especially after opening weekend.
Reinforcing the point above is the second place movie in North America yesterday, Transformers: Age of Extinction. It fell to $2 million on Monday. That box office take indicates a 58% Monday-to-Monday drop on the heels of a 56% weekend drop that was even worse than indicated due to holiday deflation the previous weekend. In the Weekend Wrap-Up I wrote on Sunday (feel better, John Hamann!), I noted the dramatic gap between prior Transformers movies and the current one after 17 days in theaters. Today, I want to make a different point.
Yesterday was the 18th day of release for Transformers 4. It is already earning only $2 million. Transformers did not fall that low in terms of domestic box office until its 28th day in theaters, a full 11 days later than Age of Extinction. It had earned $286.2 million by that point. Revenge of the Fallen did not do so until its 27th day, by which point it had already grossed $365.6 million. Dark of the Moon also did not fall so low until its 27th day; its total domestic take was $327.4 million by that point. The point here is simple. Transformers: Age of Extinction is not only well behind the pace of its predecessors but it is also dwindling so rapidly that it has no chance of recovery.
The BEST Transformers performance after the film was earning $2 million or less was 11% more box office from that moment forward. Transformers 4 should beat that by a bit but if we ballpark its performance under those parameters, it winds up in the range of $235 million. That is a roughly $117 million drop from Dark of the Moon. Were the box office numbers in China not so spectacular, we would be viewing this release as a franchise killer. That is the new math in box office. When a film dies this quickly domestically, how much benefit of the doubt do we give it for maxing out in a country where the corporation retains no more than 25% of its box office? Nobody has the answer to that yet. I am simply throwing it out there so that you understand the direction we are heading.
A movie we have not discussed in this forum finished in third place yesterday. Tammy grossed $1.6 million yesterday, a drop of only 42% from last Monday’s $2.8 million. This solid hold occurs on the heels of a 42% weekend fall. As I noted above, all of the weekend depreciation numbers are lower than normal due to the anti-holiday behavior of July 4th falling on a Friday. Still, Tammy is a critically loathed film with the type of Cinemascore that generally indicates a quick exit from theaters. Somehow, Tammy is demonstrating solid legs. Due to its $20 million budget, it is also a blockbuster, having already earned $58.6 million domestically. I posit that there is a simple explanation for this. This sort of funny fat person falling down a lot concept features a rare level of truth in advertising for Hollywood. Anyone who buys a ticket knows exactly what they are getting. I also believe that Age of Extinction qualifies under the same umbrella. So, the Chinese will figure out that these movies are garbage in another three films or so.
Rounding out the top five are the inseparable sequel duo, 22 Jump Street and How to Train Your Dragon 2. They have finished on top of one another every weekday in July (weekends include Fridays with regards to box office, pedants). Due to this close competition, it should not be surprising to realize that the last time I wrote this column, the two films were separated by $18.2 million. The gap after yesterday is $19.5 million.
Yesterday, the buddy cop flick earned just under a million while the animated title earned just over a million. The difference between the two films on Monday was $16,661. The 21 Jump Street sequel seems to have the tiniest bit more spring left in its step despite yesterday’s proceedings, though. No matter what happens next, both films are winners for their respective studios. The difference is that 22 Jump Street is a bona fide blockbuster while How to Train Your Dragon 2 continues to be a head scratcher. Most analysts feel like 22 Jump Street’s box office is a best case scenario result while the Dragon sequel is worst case scenario. And 32 days later, there is still no good explanation as to why for the latter outcome.