Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
July 15, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Matthew Huntley: Dawn's weekend numbers were very much in line with my personal expectations, and I was happy to see the film met them because it really is as good as the reviews indicate. This is an all-around pleasing blockbuster and I'm glad audiences are spreading the word (hopefully more than I realize, because it'd be great if the film had really long legs).
I think we can attribute its $73 million box office take to a few obvious factors: a) a very prolific marketing campaign (it seems everywhere you turned the past two weeks, there was an ad for Dawn of the Planet of the Apes somewhere); b) a highly praised and well-liked predecessor; c) outstanding critical reception; d) a disappointing last couple weeks. About that last point, I think audiences were so disillusioned by Transformers: Age of Extinction and Tammy, they wanted something--anything--to reinvigorate their hope in Hollywood's lackluster summer. Apes more than suffices.
Edwin Davies: For me, the commercial and critical success of Rise of the Planet of the Apes takes the lion's share of the credit for this result. We often say that the quality of one film will determine the success of its sequel, and this is a textbook example of that in action. A lot of people saw Rise and were impressed by it, and it ended at a point that suggested a more intense and action-packed continuation. The ads for Dawn highlighted the conflict between apes and humans, establishing that while this was definitely the next stage in the story of Caesar, it was not going to be a simple retread. All of that, coupled with the great reviews, convinced people that Dawn was worth seeing in the theater on opening weekend. Hopefully the word-of-mouth will help it to prosper over the coming weeks, rather than falling foul of the big opening, rapid drop-off problem that's afflicted pretty much every big blockbuster this summer.
Jay Barney: I think this is an outstanding result. The first part of the equation for me is always the numbers. By that measure Dawn of the Planet of the Apes is going to be very successful, as it is easily going to make its money back. I think it has a fine chance of passing $200 million in domestic theaters and the money should work out real well with overseas markets. With this opening, $200 million might seem a bit low, but the box office has not exactly been on fire lately, and even some of the hotter films this summer have struggled to attain that much. So I guess I am going to keep my estimates conservative for now, but even with that 20th Century Fox is going to see a hefty profit.
There is no question that audiences embraced one of the more thought provoking and "iffy" sci-fi concepts, and I have an idea about why. There is something to be said about story; that movie goers will pay good money to watch compelling characters involved in a fairly believable sequence of events. Franchises like Star Trek and Planet of the Apes are ingrained in our cultural history, yes, but early versions of those were embraced by people who were science fiction fans. They did branch out and became partially mainstream, but the special effects have added so much to how some of these science fiction stories can be told.
We have seen it with the Marvel Superhero universe. I can remember an interview with Stan Lee in the early 1990s where he was asked when there would be a Spiderman movie. Part of his response was that he wanted to see one, but he wanted it done right, and he knew the project would involve a massive budget involving a lot of graphics, etc. Avatar was a bit of a trend setter in this regard, and the Marvel Universe has done much of the same. The ability of Hollywood to deliver stories that seem far-fetched and corny just years ago, partially because of the imagination involved in those projects, has come together.
So when you get a universe like Planet of the Apes, which has something to say, is good entertainment, is an incredibly imaginative place for fans to visit, and the project is GOOD...you have a powerful equation for success. The movie is well worth seeing and does a fabulous job telling its story. It should continue to do well.
Felix Quinonez: I think this is a great result and I am very happy about it. But on the other hand, it's a somewhat expected result. Given of what we know about how a movie's quality and audience reception impacting the box office performance of its sequel, this is pretty much a textbook result. That being said, I'm really looking forward to seeing this and hope it shows some strong legs.
Max Braden: That's a significant improvement over the first movie's opening weekend, which is always a good sign. Also a good sign: strong audience and critical reviews at the same time (for both movies), which will certainly help sustain the legs of this movie and set up the financial success of a third installment in the series. I know it's not as big as some of the other movie series openers, but I've felt - maybe due to the original movies in the 1960s - that this series has a stronger aura of political message, or is a bit more intellectual than some of the recent big series such as Avengers or X-Men or Transformers. Which is not to say one is better or worse, but that I think Apes has had a slightly more uphill challenge in reaching the same numbers and demographic in audience. That factor improves the look of the weekend tally as well.
David Mumpower: This opening reflects the sort of expansion we witnessed with 22 Jump Street and expected for How to Train Your Dragon 2. As Edwin noted, it is reflective of a group of consumers who were so satisfied with the first film that they anticipated the next one. To the credit of the producers of Rise of the Planet of the Apes, they angled for a franchise rather than a single story. The second (well, latest) movie does not feel forced for that reason. I also believe there is something to the fact that consumers have been desirous of a good action film for over a month now. When Transformers: Age of Extinction failed to scratch that itch, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes was boosted by that unmet demand.
Kim Hollis: Not only do I think this is a terrific opening that should lead to solid numbers for the studio both domestically and internationally, but it is a victory for good storytelling and direction. Every time that a “good” movie is rewarded with stellar box office returns, I develop a little bit more hope for the future of cinema.