They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
The Calm Before the Storm: The Early Contenders
By J. Don Birnam
September 8, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Following and covering the Academy Awards as closely as I do can be an emotional ride akin to watching a Disney movie where the second half has been replaced by a depressing Aronosfky flick. One starts out bright-eyed and bushy-tailed, excited for what the season may bring in cinema, for which one of your favorite stars may finally catch the golden statute, and for the excitements and thrills of the opening of the envelopes. As September and October turn into January and February, however, the mood darkens considerably. After six months of wrong guesses, predictable, safe, and boring outcomes, and awards funerals for all of your favorite picks as they give way to the Academy’s pedestrian and taciturn choices, one is left pleading “No more.” Like at the end of a sinister movie, you are left feeling stunned and defeated, yet somewhat elated and secretly wanting more.
Every year one strives to avoid some of the ebbs and flows of awards season - and ideally, following this column will help by weeding down the surplus. Yet, I wager most people do not start paying attention to awards this early or even realize that the race officially begins now. But indeed, Oscar prognosticators have already begun licking their chops as major film festivals get under way.
To catch everyone up, let’s first look back at the first half of the year and try to divine from there what movies have a realistic chance of making it to the podium at the Kodak Theater in February, and then take a look at what potentially lies ahead.
The State of the Race So Far: What We Have Already Seen
The quick answer is that movies released in theaters before September rarely make it all the way through. It is not hard to understand why: although obsessive Oscar prognosticators may endeavor to see movies as early as the film festivals, most Oscar voters have jobs/lives and do not start paying attention until they have to - that is, when ballots for the various guilds and organizations start becoming due. That doesn’t happen for a while. So, barring a Hurt Locker-type phenomena, do not count on anything you have seen so far having a great chance at Best Picture.
To be clear, I’m talking right now only of movies that have been released to movie theater audiences. There are a number of movies that have been seen at the Cannes and the Telluride Film Festivals that have garnered much buzz, and I expect some will ride the wave through. But of what has been seen so far in screens across the country, there is little to discuss.
Indeed, it arguably all boils down to one word:
Boyhood
Richard Linklater’s 12-years-in-the-making story about a kid growing up right now starts a better-than-even chance of landing a Best Picture nod. The movie is impressive not only because it was filmed over the course of so long, but because of its incredibly realistic and moving portrayal of childhood as it yields to adolescence and adulthood. Patricia Arquette’s turn as the lead character’s flawed yet loving mother is refreshing in its frankness - Arquette is not afraid to show herself as she ages and uses that to her artistic advantage. The script, perhaps the movie’s strongest element, is engaging and thought-provoking.
The hardest thing about predicting this far in advance is that we don’t know yet how many other of the movies around which there is buzz will resonate with American audiences and critics. In a year with little competition or with 10 nominees, I would say Boyhood is a shoo-in for a Best Picture nod, occupying, say, An Education’s slot. But we don’t know much yet other than critics in the United States have given it essentially perfect scores, so as the race stands today it has a good chance of major nominations.
Potential Nominations: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress (although she is lead, the studio is going for Supporting), Best Original Screenplay, Best Editing (simply for the impressive feat of working with the 12 years worth of material).
The Rest
Not much else that has been released has any chance at anything other than the usual visual effects lineup populated by summer blockbusters - expect movies like Captain America and perhaps Transformers to land token nods there.
There is some buzz right now for the teen drama The Fault in Our Stars starring Shailene Woodley. I don’t buy it for one instant. Although the movie did well with audiences and received generally good reviews, I just do not see the stodgy Academy members bothering to watch this. To be sure, Woodley could pull a Jennifer Lawrence-type nomination in recognition of her proven box office draw for Divergent together with her more serious work. But unless other more serious work turns out weak, I doubt she will be invited to the party.
Potential Nominations: Best Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay.
One movie that figured to make a splash in last year’s race was Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel. It was moved up to the spring at the last minute and disappeared from contention. Still, it is Anderson’s most successful movie in a while and the praise for it was unending. On the other hand, the Academy has proven time and time again that it does not like Anderson’s quirky style. Sure, the writers’ branch has always shown him love, but he has always walked away empty-handed. Again, barring a complete dearth of options, this movie is the longest of shots.
Potential Nominations: Best Actor for Ralph Fiennes (not really but I had to fill something in), Best Art Direction (this it has a fair shot at), Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design.
And the second highest-grossing movie of the first half of the year is the final flick I could think of landing any serious nominations: The LEGO Movie, simply because of how popular it was. But it is not Up or Toy Story 3 or WALL-E-level respected, so don’t expect much outside of the obvious nomination.
Potential Nominations: Best Animated Feature.
What We Are Yet To See
The four major film festivals that produce most Oscar-nominees are, believe it or not, halfway over. Cannes (which is in May) and Telluride (late August) are done. And the Toronto Film Festival (running from September 4th through the 14th) is well under way. The only one left of the four is the New York Film Festival, which begins September 28th and goes through October 12th.
The pedigree of these festivals in terms of Oscar-bait is impressive. Argo premiered at Telluride. Slumdog Millionaire and The Hurt Locker premiered in Toronto, and The Artist dazzled at Cannes. New York hasn’t premiered a Best Picture winner in a bit, but it has recently shown sneak-peeks of Hugo and Lincoln (arguably the two runners-up in their respective Oscar years), and opened with movies such as Captain Phillips and Life of Pi.
So what can we expect to come out of these festivals? I won’t list potential nominations for any movie until I have personally seen it. Here, I will go through a basic primer of where the buzz is so far so that readers can start getting used to seeing these names - they will probably be with us through the end of February.
From Cannes
Although other movies that we may yet hear again from premiered at Cannes, the two main movies to track from this festival are Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher and David Cronenberg’s Maps to the Stars. The former is by the acclaimed director of Capote and Moneyball - both Best Picture nominees - and tells the story of Olympic Wrestling Champion Mark Schultz (of whom I had not heard before reading about this movie). It stars Channing Tatum and Steve Carell and has what is heralded as a surefire Best Actor nominated role. The film will have its North American premiere in Toronto, at which point we should have a better idea whether it’s a contender or a pretender.
The second entry, by the director of Eastern Promises and a History of Violence, tells the story of two child stars and how they deal with being famous as they grow up. Cronenberg has never found much love from the Academy, which makes me immediately skeptical of this movie’s Oscar chances, but Julianne Moore won Best Actress at Cannes, so she is at least a force to be reckoned with for a nomination in that category for the Academy Awards.
From Telluride
Cannes always scores the artsy names and quirky pieces, but Telluride is right now the official beginning of the movie awards season throughout the world. And yet, for whatever reason, nothing huge seems to be coming out of Telluride exclusively at least for now.
Perhaps the biggest name out of the Colorado mountains is Alejandro González Iñárritu’s Birdman, starring Michael Keaton as an aging actor, and another supposed threat for a Best Actor nod. However, this film actually premiered in Venice the week before it had its North American coming out party at Telluride.
Other potentially award-worthy movies were screened at Telluride, including Foxcatcher and Marion Cotillard’s acclaimed Two Days, One Night, about a factory worker in France who has 48 hours to convince her co-workers to forego bonuses so she can keep her job. And the list goes on - Mike Leigh’s (Oscar winning director for The Graduate) Mr. Turner, about the 19th Century British poet; The Imitation Game, about the life of computer programmer Alan Turing, and Wild, starring Reese Witherspoon and telling the story of a hiker’s unfathomable journey, were all screened at Telluride.
However, these films are not exclusive to the festival, marking perhaps the first year that its original lineup will not showcase a Best Picture frontrunner.
From Toronto
Like the others, the Toronto Film Festival will screen The Foxcatcher. Beyond that, however, its two main official selection debuts will be The Judge, the Robert Downey Jr. and Robert Duvall coming home-type story about a lawyer and his complex relationship with his father, alongside A Little Chaos, the Alan Rickman and Kate Winslet vehicle about the construction of the Versailles gardens by Louis the XIV. I have it from a reputable source, however, that Chaos is not much to write home about (nor have Toronto’s or other festival’s closing night selections been so for a while), and The Judge does not seem like serious Oscar material from its trailers.
Thus, like for Telluride, Toronto may be left bragging only about North American premiers of movies that screened first across the Atlantic - perhaps a trend worth keeping an eye on and discussing further in a future column.
From New York
Last but not least is my own local film festival, New York’s 52nd.
One of the movies I am most looking forward to this fall is David Fincher’s Gone Girl, which will have its world-premiere in New York in a few weeks. Given how deliciously naughty the book is, the fact that Fincher is perhaps my favorite currently-working director, and that I would much rather see Ben Affleck in front of the camera than behind it, it is no wonder that I look forward to this movie. Of course, as you may know, the source material is dark and problematic in its denouement, so the project could fall flat. However, most of Fincher’s work has received multiple Oscar nominations (from The Social Network to The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo to Fight Club), so I would be more stunned if the movie was blanked out of nominations.
To close, it’s worth clarifying that the movies covered here are by no means whatsoever the only ones getting advance Oscar buzz. Unbroken, directed by Angelina Jolie and based on the book by the author of Best Picture nominee Seabiscuit, is highly anticipated, and will not be seen by critics or audiences for a while. Nor will Christopher Nolan’s highly-anticipated sci-fi blockbuster, Interstellar.
So, all of this is to say that, as the race gets underway, there is much cause for hope and optimism: exciting and promising movies, familiar and new faces, creative projects by beloved directors.
Now all we have to do is wait for all the award shows to come in and ruin all of it.