Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
September 9, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Brett Ballard-Beach: About on par with the almost-forgotten Apollo 18 only with not quite as virulently venomous reviews. With a low production budget, it's no money loser, but it brings the summer to a close with a whimper, and guarantees that the horror crowd will be chomping at the bit for what October has to throw their way (and with no Paranormal Activity 5, that means Annabelle, Ouija and possibly Horns)
Edwin Davies: It's decent in terms of how much the film cost to produce and, considering how anemic the advertising was in the weeks leading up to release, to market, but it's a pretty ignominious end to a pretty crappy summer. I know that Labor Day is traditionally a dead zone as far as the box office is concerned, but when a 5-weekend-old film is able to rise to the top of the chart one week and remain their the next, while earning twice as much as the nearest new opener, you know that Hollywood is failing to provide anything that audiences might want to see.
Jason Barney: Despite last weekend being full of press about not much action at the box office, the results for As Above, So Below really are very strong. The risk for the studios was minimal, even with opening during the graveyard known as Labor Day. The budget of $5 million is very cheap, and we have seen this formula work very well over the last couple of years - spending pennies and then putting a film out there to see what happens. Normally I would say an opening in fourth is not very good at all, but this film has set out what it was meant to accomplish – to exceed the production budget in a short amount of time. This formula continues to work. We will likely see more of this.
David Mumpower: Jason touched upon the important point, which is that it cost so little to create and market that it is already a profitable film. I consider this an impressive feat for a simple reason. Watch an ad for As Above, So Below. Is there anything about the project that distinguishes it from the type of programming one would see on any faux-ghost chaser show on television? This “movie” would fit right in with the ordinary late night programming of SyFy. Ergo, the fact that consumers were somehow enticed into watching it at the theater is a win.
Kim Hollis: The November Man, a spy flick starring Pierce Brosnan, earned $7.9 million from Friday-to-Sunday and has accumulated $18.4 million since debuting a week ago last Wednesday. What do you think of this result?
Brett Ballard-Beach: It's interesting that this is the 2014 "action film slotted for adults action that Focus normally releases over on the Wednesday before Labor Day, only Focus isn't involved this time around (this project is from Relativity). The reviews I have read were a strange mix of positive and negative: that there were elements of the film for a more thoughtful, contemplative audience, mixed in with wild tonal shifts and violence that ran the gamut from two-handed guns blazing slo-mo squibs to visceral someone takes a smash to the face and you feel their hurt. As with Above/Below, this probably had a low budget and so may make it back domestically. It's interesting that a sequel was announced when this opened as it will likely top out below $30 million and I don't see it being a huge hit overseas (unless Brosnan is huge the world over?)
Edwin Davies: Brett already mentioned the announcement of a sequel, which at the time seemed premature and now seems pretty foolhardy. This is a pretty bad result that makes it unlikely that The November Man will see any kind of profit until way, way, way down the line, and is not the sort of thing that you build a franchise on.
Jay Barney: I'm less impressed with this result than the other Labor Day opener. Regardless of the weekend, opening in sixth place is never a good thing. Yes, this is a weak weekend, but studios have to expect more than just a start in the single digits. I am a Brosnan fan, and hope to continue to view his work, but this opening is pretty awful.
David Mumpower: I have been a deep and abiding fan of Pierce Brosnan going all the way back to Remington Steele, which I am old enough to have watched occasionally when it was still first-run programming. When I first saw ads for The November Man, I felt like it could be a hit if marketed perfectly. I thought it was much more likely to fall into that gray area of The Tailor of Panama, another James Bond-style film that used Brosnan’s previous career in an odd way. History has repeated itself with The November Man, which wanted to be Taken but isn’t even The Recruit, another film from the same director that earned a mediocre $52.8 million domestically.
Kim Hollis: The Identical, a movie that seems like it's about Elvis or someone like Elvis, debuted with $1.6 million this weekend. Its per-venue average was $811. Say something funny about The Identical.
Brett Beach: Ray Liotta, Joe Pantaliano, and Seth Green in a PG-rated faith-based tale of whether to rock n' roll on stage for the masses or "rock and roll" the pulpit for the Lord, that also asks "what if" the King's twin brother didn't really die at birth? Nothing I could say is as droll as just recounting the actual facts of the film. Mom's Night Out will now not be the lowest grossing faith-based film of the year.
Matthew Huntley: The only thing anybody "might" remember about The Identical is that its opening weekend of $1.6 million is nearly "identical" to its theater count of 1,957 when you multiply the latter by 1000. I know, it's really not all that interesting, is it? I can hear the crickets chirping, a sound that seems "identical" to the sound in this movie's theaters.
Edwin Davies: At least it did better than the re-release of Forrest Gump, which means it technically wasn't the lowest grossing film with a tangential connection to Elvis this weekend. Though I imagine the numbers for The Identical's IMAX re-release in 2034 are going to be ugly.
Jason Barney: The Identical's opening was so bad it didn't even pull in $600,000 on any day of its opening weekend. Wow.
Bruce Hall: Let's not be so fast to scoff at that per theater average. $811 is almost a thousand dollars. Let's pick a theater and say it was about $8 for the matinee ticket. That puts 102 people in the theater, although we all know that's unrealistically high so let's go with an even 100. And how many times does that go into 811?
That's $8.14. More than enough to give each and every person their money back. You guys can be cynical if you want. I'm calling that a WIN, baby!
David Mumpower: The funniest thing here is that the movie was overestimated by 20%. How is that even possible? I guess they were expecting more Sunday support from the church crowd. They didn’t get it. Also, Reagen Sulewski claims that I look like the guy who stars in this movie. I am right to pour acid in his eye sockets for this, right?
Reagen Sulewski: So David doesn't want to be called a copy of a copy of a copy of Elvis, who can bring out a whole 0.05% of the population to see a mov... actually I may see his point here. Although I've been compared to a young Dan Akyroyd in the past so it's not like I'm carrying off the BOP lookalike champion title here.
Kim Hollis: I think it’s funny that this film was even released theatrically. I saw a commercial for it on ESPN or something and was confused because I had no idea why they’d be advertising a film that looked like it ought to be on the Lifetime Network. John Hamann commented in his weekend wrap-up that exhibitors might be better off closing the weekend after Labor Day. Or maybe they should cut a deal with the NFL and show the games on the big screen. That might actually get people to show up.