Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
September 16, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Brett Ballard-Beach: Against a $13 million budget and playing at only 2,200 theaters, this is nothing but a huge win. Screen Gems and producer Will Packer once again found financial success, this time with a film that A) had been on the shelf for two years; B) was released to almost universal critical drubbing (I think its Rotten Tomatoes score is lower than any of Packer's other productions); C) appeared to be the sort of Lifetime "woman in jeopardy" flick that someone might choose to watch at the last minute on a Saturday night as opposed to shelling out $12 to see on the big screen; and D) managed to be the antithesis of National Violence Against Women Awareness week. After the lost weekend of last weekend, a fair number of people were looking for an excuse to come out to the theater and the lowbrow thrills here proved to be enough. Plus, the fact that the majority of the audience was over 30 (and thus the film shouldn't be front-loaded) means this could play for four to six more weeks and wind up in the $70-80 million domestic final range.
Edwin Davies: This is a pretty fantastic result for all the reasons Brett mentioned. This film cost relatively little to make, is apparently pretty awful, and offers little that we haven't seen many times before, but they managed to earn nearly double the budget in three days and broke out in a big way. Clearly casting two appealing stars with sizable fan bases and taking advantage of a fallow period in the release schedule paid off in a big way.
Jason Barney: This is an exceptional opening. The numbers tell most of the story. A $13 million budget would have made money with a very meager opening. To come out of the gate with $24 million on opening weekend is pretty nuts. Marketing costs have been exceeded already, so this one is going to make a lot of money. Considering the relatively low screen count, the success is even larger.
With four new releases next week it will get lost in the shuffle pretty quick, but this film has exceeded everyone's expectations and made a lot more money than anyone thought.
Felix Quinonez: It's hard to call this anything but a win. When you make almost twice your budget in three days, you're off to a great start. Even if doesn't have legs, it will make a good profit.
Max Braden: That's a big win for screen gems. I didn't see much advertising for this movie, and from the trailer I would not have been surprised if it had failed to break over $20 million for the weekend. On the other hand, home invasion thrillers can sneak into first place that way too. The Purge sequel was the number one new movie (second to Dawn of the Planet of the Apes) its opening weekend in the middle of the summer with $29.8 million. You're Next opened to $7 million in late August last year, not a high number unless you note that it was made for only $1 million. Breaking and entering seems to be where the money is.
Kim Hollis: I think that it's obviously a success, and yet another example of how Screen Gems has learned how to market its films to precisely the right audience. We've talked about how the African-American demographic is pretty consistently under-served, and Will Packer seems to have the magic touch when it comes to producing films that they enthusiastically support. One surprise for me was that the audience for this film was 60% female - are women really that excited to see someone like Taraji P. Henson in peril? I have to say that I'm a little surprised it opened quite so well.
Kim Hollis: Dolphin Tale 2, a sequel to the warmly-received family film from 2011, earned $15.9 million. What do you think about this result?
Brett Ballard-Beach: This is squarely a win as far as I am concerned. For comparison's sake, consider that 1995's Free Willy 2: The Voyage Home, also from Warner Bros and with similar themes, opened with $7 million and finished with only $30 million - a 62% drop after 1993's Free Willy, which debuted with $8 million and racked up $78 million (about what Dolphin Tale made). Dolphin Tale 2 is also a sequel that isn't really necessary and nobody was really asking for. However, the studio kept the same director, the entire lead cast, and even a near equivalent budget, and it only finished its first weekend at about $3 million less. This is probably accounted for by the fact that the sequel is not in 3D as the first one was. The Rotten Tomatoes score and the Cinemascore are both a little under the first one but the general consensus seems to be that for a pure money grab, this was done with as much tact and warmth and humanity as could be asked for and I imagine a lot of the same crowd that kept the first one percolating for a couple of months will make up their minds to do so here as well.
Edwin Davies: This is a perfectly acceptable result for a film that no one really seemed to be asking for. The first one was a well-liked, modest hit, but not the sort of thing people were really exuberant about, and a sequel could easily have disappeared without trace. By keeping so many of the core people around and maintaining the quality, they were able to hold on to the audience that liked the first film and, much like No Good Deed, were able to capitalize on a period in which there haven't been many options for families, and the ones that have been out there have been pretty dark and/or violent. Something light like this makes a stark contrast to TMNT.
Jason Barney: This one is not going to make the same money as the original, but I think it has a decent chance of earning a profit before all is said and done. If it plays anything like the original, the solid holds will be there, and the international money should help quite a bit. This is not going to be an instant success. It has some work to do, but when all is said and done I would expect it won't lose money.
Felix Quinonez: This is perfectly fine. The first was a decent sized hit but it didn't exactly stay on the public's minds. This is practically the definition of "unnecessary sequel" and it still managed to open in the same ball park as the first one. Not only that but it actually has good reviews and an "A" cinema score. So it hold pretty well over the next few weeks and see some profit.
Max Braden: I have to object to such a movie being released in September. The summer's over! It was snowing in South Dakota last week! No more water movies! I mean, maybe if it was "Dolphin Sharks 2" it could be released in August. But I wonder if this movie could have made a little more if it had been released in June right after school let out. On the other hand, then kids would have been off seeing How to Train Your Dragon 2, so maybe counter programming this weekend was the right idea after all. I still object.
Kim Hollis: I think this is a solid result, and frankly I'm a little surprised that there were that many people who were excited enough to go see this movie in a theater on opening weekend. What it has going for it is that it's a good-natured, well-intended project that is unobjectionable for families. An A Cinemascore tells us that people are responding positively to the movie, and it should play well in the coming weeks as there isn't much else for kids (The Box Trolls is coming, but Laika isn't known for huge box office).
Kim Hollis: The Drop, a crime drama featuring James Gandolfini, Tom Hardy and Noomi Rapace, earned $4.1 million in only 809 locations. What do you think about this weekend performance?
Brett Ballard-Beach: This performance (pleasantly) surprises me as much as the opening weekend of A Most Wanted Man did and I think it should play out fairly close to how that has, winding up between $25-30 million with a couple more weekends of expansions and some time to stand out before the heavy hitters of fall start grabbing up the screens
Edwin Davies: This is at least double what I was expecting due to the smallish number of theaters, and the fact that the reviews have been positive but not ecstatic. That it broke out to the extent that it has seems to be a testament to the affection out there for the late James Gandolfini, and the chance to see him give another great performance in a good film probably played a big part in drawing people out on opening weekend.
Jason Barney: This is a nice way for Gandolfini's career to move toward the sunset. He will forever be remembered for Sopranos, but it is nice to know his film career had support as well. With the $12 million budget, the positive reviews should help word-of-mouth a lot. The Drop will make money, and it shouldn't take too long for that to happen. The limited number of screens and the expansion strategy should work nicely.
Felix Quinonez: I think this is more than what anyone was expecting for it to make. And because of this, The Drop could receive some nice headlines which could help raise awareness for this movie. So I think it's a very good start that could position the movie for a nice box office performance.
Max Braden: In addition to Gandolfini and Hardy, I think seeing "From the author of Gone Baby Gone, Shutter Island, and Mystic River" on screen during the trailer is a significant draw to the film festival crowd as well. Pull in the action crowd, pull in the literary crowd, and you start seeing money change hands.