Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
October 8, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Felix Quinonez: I think Anabelle's success can be attributed, at least partially, to the fact that people love horror movies in the month of October and the studio didn't waste any time to take advantage of that. Also, The Conjuring seems to be one of the better liked horror movies in recent memory and the ads for Anabelle made the connection very clear.
Matthew Huntley: That's a very good question, because although The Conjuring was well-received by critics and audiences alike, I didn't think a prequel (as opposed to a sequel) would open nearly as well. I assumed Annabelle would suffer the same fate as Blair Witch 2, i.e. be viewed as a blatant attempt by the studio to cash in on a surprise hit. Clearly, this wasn't the case, and I think some of its success is owed to the TV spots, which show people in the theater gasping and screaming at the screen, a tactic that's been used many times over but that consistently seems to do the trick. The nearness to Halloween didn't hurt, either. I don't think this movie will have legs and it'll be all but gone by the end of the month, but it guarantees another Conjuring movie in the future.
Edwin Davies: I would put this largely, if not solely, down to the connection to The Conjuring. The marketing for the film was effectively creepy, but the key thing about it was that it kept hammering home the connection to a film that was a huge hit last year, and that connection clearly resonated with people who enjoyed James Wan's film and decided that they wanted to spend more time with that horrifying doll. The dearth of decent horror options almost certainly played a part in that as well, so there was probably a lot of pent up demand for a straightforward spooky film. If you discount The Purge: Anarchy, which is more of an action-thriller, Annabelle is already the highest grossing horror film of the year [insert Planes: Fire & Rescue or Blended joke here], which demonstrates what a terrible year 2014 has been for the genre.
Jason Barney: I think much of this success has to do with the goodwill left over from The Conjuring. Like the number one film for the weekend, this is a stellar opening that was unexpectedly strong. Regardless of the budget and whatever the marketing costs were, in every possible financial scenario Annabelle is going to be making money very quickly. The $37 million opening is really great, and I wonder if with the leaves turning, temperatures falling, and the approach of Halloween.... if it doesn't suffer the traditionally awful weekend #2 drop for horror films. Most suffer drops of well over 60%. If the hold is anywhere decent, there is a chance Annabelle could approach $100 million. That is likely a little high, but this opening is golden for everyone involved.
Max Braden: In addition to what's already been said, I think we're still in an environment where there's a strong desire for prequels and origin stories to expand on a story's universe. But I would attribute it largely to the fear of scary looking dolls, a fear that must be shared by all humans at our core.
David Mumpower: I agree with the majority that Annabelle was treated like a sequel to a very popular horror movie. The fact that there are still a billion ghost hunting programs on network television is a tribute to the popularity of the originators of the premise, Ed and Lorraine Warren. While the Warren number is an abuse of goodwill in this instance since the film does not involve those characters, it does strengthen my belief that the Warrens have become cult figures in the realm of horror cinema. I also agree with Max that a creepy doll never hurts. Magic, the Anthony Hopkins film, remains the scariest movie I have ever seen.
Kim Hollis: Left Behind, a reboot of the rapture series featuring Nicolas Cage in the lead role, earned $6.3 million this weekend. Is this better, worse, or about what you were expecting?
Felix Quinonez: I think it's about as much as I was expecting. Morbid curiosity to see how bad a movie is will only take you so far.
Bruce Hall: Part of me imagined this opening to $47 million, because that many people are as fascinated as I am to behold the continued disintegration of a once respected actor. But the realistic part of me says that since this movie cost about $15 million to make it'll probably eventually break even, which is good.
Because that's why people get into the movie business. To break even.
Edwin Davies: This is fairly awful, but if anything it's slightly better than I was expecting going into the weekend. The Left Behind brand was clearly tarnished somewhat by the Kirk Cameron films, all of which were pretty terrible and were geared solely towards the faithful, so it was going to take a Herculean effort to draw people in to see a newer version. Clearly the curiosity, however morbid, about seeing Nic Cage's career reach a new low provided that boost, though clearly not enough of one to overcome the associations most people have when it comes to Left Behind movies, or the fact that the ads and reviews for this one were awful.
Jason Barney: This was actually lower than I was expecting. I didn't expect this film to do well. However, over the last decade or so there has been fan support for these types of films. So I was a bit surprised when the numbers came in below $10 million. It will probably make its budget back, but it is not going to stick around very long.
Max Braden: The word "million" behind any Nic Cage movie surprises me these days, but I was even more surprised when I watched the trailer and thought, "Hey, that actually doesn't look half bad." It would not surprise me if the success of the recently concluded first season of HBO's "The Leftovers" had something to do with it. Post-apocalyptic movies will always have some sort of draw, religious or not.
David Mumpower: I was rooting for historic failure, so middling failure in terms of opening weekend for a film with a modest budget is a tremendous disappointment. Don't get me wrong. I'm still going to mock it every chance I get, but I feel like the public should have rebuked this monstrosity much more emphatically.