Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
October 15, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: I think the key problem was the shift in the marketing as the weekend drew nearer. The early ads made it seem like a very serious-minded, worthy drama with powerhouse performances, but the later ones emphasized the humor and made it seem much more lighthearted. Downey admitted in his Reddit AMA that they made the change when they discovered that test audiences reacted more strongly to the humor in the film than the drama, so they were clearly trying to play to their strengths, but unfortunately they did not realize what those strengths were early enough, so they ended up sending mixed messages. It also didn't help that the ads made the plot seem unnecessarily convoluted. It could have overcome all of that if the reviews were strong enough, but those weren't there either, or if it hadn't opened in the wake of Gone Girl, which is dominating the conversation as far as films for adults are concerned.
Felix Quinonez: I think a lot of it comes down to the middling reviews. This was made to look like a serious, prestige film and the audience that it seemed to be courting would have been turned off by the weak reception it got from critics. I also believe Gone Girl's stronger than expected performance might have stolen some of the attention away from The Judge.
Kim Hollis: I'd agree that reviews killed this one. For serious-minded films like these, audiences really pay attention to what the critics say and often base their decisions on whether to see such movies in theaters on those reviews. Honestly, though, I don't even think this would have come close to what it did had Downey not been the primary star.
David Mumpower: In addition to the other issues, I would add that the film always felt slight to me. In order to sell a drama, there has to be substance. I actually quite enjoy this type of film, as the parent/child legal drama subset includes one of my personal favorites, Class Action. The Judge always felt like an inferior version of that, which is lamentable for a title with a cast this great.
Kim Hollis: The erotic thriller Addicted opened to $7.5 million. What do you think about this debut?
Edwin Davies: Considering that I hadn't heard of it before the Friday numbers came in, I'm going to say that this is surprising. Based on what I've read about the film after the fact, I can see how it managed to break out (in an admittedly modest way) since it was distinct in two ways: it was aimed at African-American audiences, a demographic which, as we say roughly half a dozen times a year, is generally under-served by Hollywood, and it was an erotic thriller, which is a genre that generally doesn't crop up in theaters all that often these days. Those factors combined probably did much to help Addicted set itself apart from other films and to break out despite such a limited release.
Felix Quinonez: This is a huge performance from a movie I never heard of until today. Anytime a movie makes more than your budget on opening weekend, it's in good shape. This is definitely a win.
Bruce Hall: I can't believe there's an erotic thriller out and I didn't know about it. This is what domestic life has done to me.
I hadn't heard of this movie until exactly right now. So the best I can suggest is that whatever it cost to make Addicted, it's probably close enough to the $7 million it earned this weekend that everyone involved is going to sleep very well tonight.
David Mumpower: Reagen Sulewski actually failed to include this in his forecast, which is a mistake he would write off as an indicator of being distracted by the impending birth of his new daughter (welcome to the universe, Charlotte!). Personally, I think that any reminder of the carnal acts that led to the birth were unwelcome. Sorry, I didn't have any box office-y to add but how great is it that Reagen has another kid? The next generation of BOP breeding program is proceeding on schedule as planned!
Kim Hollis: While I'd heard of the film, I didn't have any real idea what it was. I think that probably speaks to the fact that most of us were not in the target demographic. Here's yet another example of Lionsgate pulling off a small-scale success. Kudos to them for getting the message about this movie out to the right people.
Kim Hollis: Meet the Mormons, presumably not the latest entry in the Fockers franchise, debuted in 11th place with $2.5 million. How is this possible?
Edwin Davies: As with Addicted, Meet the Mormons probably benefitted from being aimed at an audience that isn't catered to by most films, one that probably was excited to see its members represented on screen. That probably means that the film will struggle to reach outside of that core audience, but its reach was certainly good enough to get one good weekend and to make a few headlines.
Brett Ballard-Beach: Purdie Distribution released a film last year almost to the day, called The Saratov Approach (a title I only know from seeing a billboard for the DVD that still dots the road 10 blocks down from where I live). That film opened to only $130,000 from 20 or so screens and though it never played at more than 84 screens during its run, it stayed in theaters for six months and ending up grossing $2.2 million. In one weekend, they have outgrossed that with their sophomore release. As Edwin notes for this and Addicted, micro-targeting a particular niche (particularly religious or ethnic) is where it's at. Save on marketing, have a low-budget film and start turning a profit earlier. The reviews I have read suggest to me that this won't be breaking out much beyond, and may have had quite a fan-driven upfront rush debut but that's all besides.
Felix Quinonez: I believe there is an audience for just about everything. And because in this case, they are so underserved, this movie definitely got their attentions. I don't see this crossing over but it's still shows that there's an audience for mormon movies and perhaps more will follow.
Kim Hollis: I'm pretty surprised by this result, because I have no idea why Mormons would want to go see it (reviews say it's basically an informercial with no new information for the already converted), while it doesn't really offer anything substantial to anyone outside the faith. To say I was surprised to see this debut in the top 12 is an understatement.