Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
October 21, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: I think this is pretty good given that World War II films, with a few notable exceptions, tend not to be huge breakout hits. This is in line with what The Monuments Men did earlier this year, which makes it a little disappointing considering that Fury got much better reviews and a stronger audience response than the Clooney film did, but that also bodes well for its future. A straightforward World War II movie should appeal to older audiences so it should have decent legs and finish north of $70 million, while Pitt's involvement guarantees that it will earn more than that overseas since almost every film he's headlined has grossed more internationally than domestically.
Jason Barney: This is a respectable opening. Brad Pitt certainly is a major draw, so it could have been a little higher, but this is by no means disappointing. With five films earning over $10 million and the sixth barely missing that mark by less than $20,000, it is a crowded field.
By the numbers, this started right about where it needed to. It has knocked off about a third of its budget with the opening, and it has two or three things going for it over the next couple of weeks. First, Pitt is bound to bring people to the theaters. There are not zombies in this one, but Pitt has earned enough respect where fans will show up. Second, the word-of-mouth on this is going to be pretty good I think. It doesn't need to have crazy good holds, it just needs to keep more than 50% percent of its audience each weekend. It should do that. Finally, the path to profitability is going to be fairly easy. The budget here isn't too expensive, only $68 million. With Pitt's ability to bring in foreign moviegoers, the overseas receipts will provide some nice gravy.
Finally, as far as WWII movies go, this is a clear winner. Over the last half a dozen years we have been treated to some fairly good films that explore the sacrifices of the greatest generation. Surprisingly, not all of them opened very strong. The screen count was lower, but Flags of Our Fathers opened to only $10 million. Valkyrie opened with $21 million. Defiance started as a limited release and then expanded. Pitt's own Inglourious Bastards was the most successful with $38 million. And last year's Monument's Men opened just above the $22 million. So for a very specific genre, it certainly opened well enough.
Matthew Huntley: I agree Fury's opening weekend numbers are good, but they're hardly spectacular, and given its budget, which I don't necessarily view as low, I think it'll need a lot of staying power to show a profit. And with more potential award hopefuls opening from now until the end of the year, I just don't see that happening. There will just be too much to choose from that I feel Fury will get lost in shuttle. Additionally, I saw the film today, and I was honestly less than impressed. It's a sound and capable action movie disguised as a World War II drama, but as an action movie, it's rather standard and I don't think the word-of-mouth will carry it very far beyond $60 million total, which won't be enough when you take into account the theaters' shares and P&A budget.
Felix Quinonez: I definitely think it's a good opening but I was expecting it to open closer to $30 million. With the good reviews and solid word-of-mouth, I think it should have good legs. But it has to reach $70 million just to break even and I don't see it getting too much higher than that, so it will have to rely on overseas grosses to make a profit.
Reagen Sulewski: Just think how much more it might have made had Shia LaBeouf not been in it! The wildcard with the final box office here was with how much Oscar attention it might receive, which could really let it hang around. There's a bit of horse/cart involved there, but the notion of awards buzz could propel this a few weeks down the road to where it starts really making a difference. That said, I don't think it's all that likely to happen, as reviews are good, but not spectacularly good. Sony took a gamble on perceived quality and a solid formula (big named star, period war piece, serious tone) that nearly paid off big but fell just short. I at least appreciate the effort.
Max Braden: I think we're still in the shadow of the era where WWII movies fall into one of two categories: Movies that are Saving Private Ryan, and all the rest. And although SPR doesn't have the modern opening weekend record for WWII movies, it does hold the title for total gross along with the critical awards it received. If you're not going to throw money at the project like Michael Bay, your WWII movie isn't likely to break out of a typical zone for the genre. Choosing Brad Pitt as the figurehead wasn't going to do much to move the opening numbers, though it should help the movie's legs (along with good reviews - I haven't seen it yet but having seen Monuments Men there's no other conclusion to draw than this must be the better movie.) The number is decent, not great, but still one of those projects worth doing, even if it still isn't Saving Private Ryan Again.
Kim Hollis: It's a solid result, particularly considering that Brad Pitt hasn't necessarily proven to be a guaranteed draw over the past several years. Sure, it's less than Inglourious Basterds, but that film had the benefit of the Quentin Tarantino name on top of his presence (not to mention some truly amazing trailers and promotion). It wasn't as easy to market Fury - it's a historical action film and not much else. I think the studio should be pleased - and with the international numbers Brad Pitt seems to bring in, it probably will show a profit, too.
David Mumpower: Right, it's easy to say that another Brad Pitt war movie should match Inglourious Basterds, but Tarantino is one of the few directors whose name matters in terms of drawing customers. It's no fairer to compare Fury to World War Z, which is ostensibly also a war movie. The Monuments Men really is the best comparison. As others have noted, it's going to surpass that film's box office thanks to the magic of glowing word-of-mouth. And since both films cost about the same, Fury feels like a solid win to me.