Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
December 2, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
David Mumpower: Personally, I love these characters and was hoping that the spin-off project would be a blockbuster. What happened instead has surprised me. I consider this performance to be a bomb. Please hear me out on this before you argue that I’m being too harsh.
Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted opened to $60.3 million during its non-holiday opening weekend. Over five days, that number bumps up to $73.8 million. Penguins of Madagascar, the standalone film from the comic relief characters in the first trio of movies, earned less than half of that amount. It did so despite being released during what is historically one of the biggest weeks on the movie release schedule. Also, these characters had the benefit of free advertising and heightened brand awareness from the Nickelodeon series of (virtually) the same name.
Simply stated, there is no excuse for this performance. We have previously chronicled the struggles DreamWorks Animation has faced since they have stopped distributing their own films. The earlier disappointments were handled by Paramount Pictures while this atrocity falls on Fox. Perhaps no other title thus far exemplifies this stunning failure to maximize earnings potential of a formerly powerful production house. DreamWorks Animation is in danger of becoming a cinematic footnote.
Matthew Huntley: Unfortunately, there's no real positive spin to put on Penguins' figures. I'd say David is right that we can definitely call the movie a "bomb," at least in terms of its opening. There are a few reasons it qualifies for such a label:
1) It opened over the typically family-dominated Thanksgiving long weekend, and usually families aren't so selective with their choices, but this time that clearly wasn't the case. I doubt its reviews had much to do with it, as they're generally positive, so I'm guessing it's the idea they simply weren't interested in a feature-length Madagascar spin-off with these characters; 2) Its parent franchise (the aforementioned Madagascar) is well-known and well-liked, so it would stand to reason this movie should have done better; 3) The movie cost a whopping $132 million to produce, which makes its possibilities for profit all the more difficult.
It'll need a lot of help internationally just to break even. All in all, this is a disappointment and I wouldn't be surprised if DreamWorks' stock takes a hit because of it. [Editor’s note: It did.]
Edwin Davies: The only potential positive might be that the film has a few weeks without any new family films, which means that it could make up for lost ground. Even then, it's operating in the shadow of Big Hero 6, which I wouldn't be surprised to see pull ahead of it on weekdays and weekends even though it's three weeks old. Any recovery would be limited to helping it get close to $100 million, but I'd be very surprised if it manages to get much higher than that. That's got to be a disappointment for a spin-off from a pretty well-liked series. Hope might lie overseas, but that's not guaranteed.
Jason Barney: It is easy to look at these numbers in a somewhat alarming light. It is a not a true disaster, but I would think the folks at DreamWorks would have wanted a stronger push out of the gate than this. $36 million over the five day holiday frame is nothing to sneeze at, but when you calculate in the budget of $132 million those cute little birds have much work to do. The holds should be fairly good. The likelihood of a strong holiday season is high as well. However, when the opening weekend is barely one-quarter of your production budget, it is not a good sign.
The feather in the cap of this franchise has always been its international appeal, though. Madagascar earned $339 million overseas. Escape to Africa earned $420 million internationally. Europe’s Most Wanted, the most recent entry from 2012 earned a shocking half a billion from foreign markets. I’m sure DreamWorks is hoping for continuing interest from non-American markets.
Bruce Hall: When a film opens to $35 million over five days against a budget of $132 million, I would usually describe that result with adjectives normally reserved only for the Russian space program. But "Penguins" has performed well overseas, pulling in around $62 million so far for a worldwide gross of $98 million as of this writing. That's a lot more palatable, if you're DreamWorks.
Needless to say, the continuing success of Big Hero 6 no doubt contributed to this soft opening, but unless I'm mistaken, the next credible threat in the family film space is the next Hobbit film, which opens December 17th.
Obviously there's no way to call this a "win," but I wouldn't be surprised to see Penguins make up some ground and force some of us to change our minds before the end of the year.
Felix Quinonez: I don't find this opening that surprising. I think for the most part people enjoy the Madagascar movies but aren't really devoted to the franchise enough to get excited about a spin-off. And I believe that the studio overestimated the appeal of the penguins. I think some things are good in small doses. That being said I think, box office wise, this is a pretty bad start. If it holds really well, it might get lucky enough to make over $100 million domestically. And I believe DreamWorks should be sweating and hoping that it does a lot better overseas.
Kim Hollis: While I don’t really think that this debut is exactly surprising, I do think there was cause to believe Penguins would have been a stronger performer stateside. Thus far, the series has been popular enough if not a top-of-the-line franchise, and the Penguins are beloved enough that they’ve had their own television series. I just think that the big issue for this one is that it really doesn’t offer much to parents who have to go see the movie with their kids, and when there’s a much more palatable alternative in Big Hero 6, Penguins isn’t the sole option. It’ll be interesting to track it from here, because even its international numbers are lackluster compared to past movies in the Madagascar franchise.