Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
December 16, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Matthew Huntley: This is a disappointing figure to say the least, and not just because Ridley Scott's epic carries a $140 million price tag, but because the time of year suggests it should have done better (granted, the story of Moses is hardly a Christmas-oriented, but the religious theme in general should have enticed a broader viewership). What's also disconcerting is the level of competition coming up, so this weekend was the only one Exodus had all to itself, and from here on out, I think it will struggle to reach even $100 million domestically. Plus, with poor reviews, this will go down as one of Fox's few low spots of the year.
Edwin Davies: Even taking into account the way that December weekends are always lower than other times of the year, this is a very weak result. The only hope it has of saving face domestically is if it holds up over the next few weeks, and while we're fond of saying that the holiday box office is the rising tide that lifts all ships, I can't help but think that Exodus is the one ship with too many holes. The bad press surrounding the alabaster casting probably didn't help, but I think that this, along with Noah, shows why the religious films that have done well over the last 12 months have generally not been Hollywood productions. They can't be seen as too religious for fear of alienating a broader audience, so it comes off as inauthentic to the people they could get to come out in force.
Jason Barney: While I am usually one to urge critics to take a breath and settle down with the sky is falling talk about certain movies, here it might be warranted. For a film that has this sort of budget, $140 million, it needed a much larger opening. $24 million would be great if Exodus was made for half of the actual budget, but this is going to be a significant bomb.
The formula for success is not a bad idea here. Studios may never be able to replicate the success of The Passion of Christ, but the possibility of copying some of that film's run is part of what brings on biblical projects like Noah and Exodus. Releasing it right before X-mas really wasn't a bad idea.
However, the reviews are going to drag this film down. The RT score of 28% fresh is just dreadful, and pretty much ensures there will be NO positive word-of-mouth. A film with a soft opening needs buzz, but Exodus isn't getting the kind of talk it needs.
Kim Hollis: It’s a pretty terrible result, particularly given the excessive budget and the fact that it comes from Ridley Scott, a director whose name can be enough to get people into theaters. International box office may help, but probably not enough to really call it profitable. It’s going to be one of those rare films that falls off in December rather than having an extended run.
David Mumpower: Edwin has touched on a key aspect of this discussion. December releases historically have lower opening weekend totals then demonstrate strong legs. And even allowing for that behavior, Exodus: Gods and Kings is still likely to be a loser. I have questioned the demand for this movie for some time now. Even if the film earns $100 million domestically, something that is still a distinct possibility, it will fall far short of its production budget. As has been the theme for most large budget films in 2014, overseas numbers are its only hope for finishing in the black.
As for why it struggled, I have a theory based upon my residence in the Bible Belt. Many of my friends are religious, and they universally expressed disappointment with regards to Russell Crowe's Biblical release, Noah. I suspect that Exodus: Gods and Kings was treated by that key demographic as a de facto sequel. They gave Hollywood the benefit of the doubt for the first film's opening weekend. The second was less fortunate. The other aspect is that Noah is a lot more marketable due to its storyline, which 97% of the world's population knows. Exodus has advertising best described as inscrutable. I feel bad for Joel Edgerton. He's a good actor, and even Nic Cage doesn't deserve *that* makeup.
Max Braden: I guess they were... plagued... by low box office turn out. (I'm the first person to make that joke, right?) I saw a ton of advertising for this and was intrigued by Moses as a warrior rather than bookish guide. But as much as Ridley Scott's name was a draw, I was turned off by Angry Bale and the Super Caucasian Cast. Sound and fury etc etc. For all that money and production, despite historically moderate December openings, this is a weak showing and I don't expect it to have the traditional holiday legs.
Kim Hollis: The critically beloved Top Five, Chris Rock's film that he wrote, directed and stars in, earned $6.9 million this weekend in only 979 venues. What do you think of this result?
Matthew Huntley: I'm not sure why the critical reception for Top Five is so positive. I saw it this weekend and while it has some funny moments, it's too inconsistent to recommend. Nevertheless, its box office figures are good for a movie that only cost $10 million to make, and even though I wasn't wild about this particular picture, if its success allows the likable and more-often-funny-than-not Chris Rock a chance to make more movies in the future, I hope it continues to do well.
Edwin Davies: This is a very solid result which should hopefully allow it to expand a bit, or at least play nicely at a lower level while the big hitters of the holiday season duke it out. Rock's directorial career has been very hit and miss, both commercially and critically, and the love for his third feature, and how distinct it is from everything out there at the moment, should hopefully buoy it in the weeks ahead.
Jason Barney: This is the sort of buzz that Exodus needed but is not getting. Paramount invested wisely with this one and their investment is going to pay off handsomely. Earning $7 million during opening weekend isn't huge, but compared to what it cost to bring the project to screen, it will be seeing a profit very quickly. The Rotten Tomatoes score of 89% fresh will be more than enough to get people talking, and I would expect significant interest during late December.
Kim Hollis: It’s a solid start for a film that should play well throughout the holiday season thanks to those reviews and a general feeling of goodwill toward Chris Rock. He’s had a really good publicity campaign for this film, with fantastic interviews that have generated some positive attention. People root for guys like Rock, so it’s an easy movie to get behind.
David Mumpower: I had hoped for more from Top Five. Chris Rock is an inconsistent box office draw, but good Chris Rock generally draws a lot of money. This may be his best film ever, at least according to reviewers other than Mr. Huntley. So, the fact that the box office was so modest is a bit troubling. I know from private conversations that Tracy Morgan's tragic situation wreaked havoc with the marketing, and I have to believe that plays a part. It is only available in 979 locations, which means further expansion is still in play. A per-location of $7,043 isn't great, though.
Max Braden: I think there's a little more to this than just another Chris Rock comedy. Whether or not the movie ultimately is funny, the trailer came across as something more interesting than Grown Ups 2 or ~Afro Circus!~ When I think of limited release Chris Rock movies, I go back to Good Hair, which was a really interesting and funny documentary. Given the turmoil in Ferguson and Staten Island lately, and the interviews that Chris Rock has been giving about being black and the business of Hollywood, I think there was a hint that this movie might be some sort of message to go with the comedy. I think that could have been the draw that put up a solid per-theater average. If buzz doesn't help the movie it might falter, but I could see Rock coming out of December seen as a success with this movie.
Kim Hollis: The Reese Witherspoon film Wild expanded to 116 venues this weekend, allowing the box office to increase 152% to $1.5 million and placing it in the top 10. What do you think about its future prospects?
Matthew Huntley: Wild is a good film with some great moments, but it's not a wholly great film, at least not in my opinion. Still, I understand why it's doing so well because it is, indeed, a crowd-pleaser, and I believe it has the potential to reach upwards of $25 million, depending on how many theaters it expands to. This will help give the marketplace some extra depth and variation over the coming months, and that's definitely a good thing.
Edwin Davies: This strikes me as very similar to Jean-Marc Vallee's last film, Dallas Buyers Club, in that they are both true-life stories, driven by a strong central performance and which treat a typically Oscar-bait subject in a way which is a little earthier. If Wild remains an awards contender, something which seems likely considering Witherspoon's nomination for a Golden Globe, then I could easily see it winding up in the $20-30 million range since great, award-nominated performances tend to be an easy sell to audiences.
Kim Hollis: It seems like an okay number. Maybe not great, but a good enough start that it should do well throughout the holiday season and into awards season. With so few great roles for women, I think Reese Witherspoon is a pretty strong candidate for an Oscar nomination, which will give Wild even more traction.
David Mumpower: I absolutely believe that Reese Witherspoon is going to get nominated for Wild, and I would not be surprised if the movie itself receives a nomination as well. To my mind, discussing its box office is almost missing the point. Nobody will ever remember how well this film did financially, just whether it was a legitimate awards contender or not. Right now, I expect it to be, but a lot of critics I know like Mr. Huntley agree that it's over-hyped.
Max Braden: I see only two reasons why people would go see this movie: the source material, of which I'm unfamiliar but am aware of its best seller status, and Reese. Everyone loves Reese. The Golden Globe nominations were announced just in time to name her in the Actress, Drama category, but I think her audience would have gone to see the movie regardless. I see this as the Promised Land film of 2014; that one starred Matt Damon and the issue of natural gas fracking and didn't make nearly as much money as the gas companies have, but the connection I see is a project that tries a little too hard to be dramatic and earnest. I expect Wild will have decent audience response but not come away with any serious award contention.