Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
January 14, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Jason Barney: I think this opening for Selma is pretty good, and everyone should be smiling at Paramount. This is the type of film that is going to get a good amount of buzz going into the award season, and an $11 million wide release opening is respectable against the $20 million budget. I will be very curious what the numbers will be going into Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend. It will be on the doorstep of making its budget at that point, and it has a pretty good chance of good holds over the coming weeks.
Paramount should be gushing with excitement based on the Rotten Tomatoes 98% fresh score. That sort of reception is going to create some very generous word-of-mouth.
Matthew Huntley: Given the film's outstanding (and near perfect) reviews, I was hoping it would earn at least $16-20 million when it expanded this weekend, but perhaps its foreseeably strong legs will make up for this rather mediocre opening. Next weekend will be a big tell, as will its Oscar nominations, if any. I'm hopeful, though, and despite my not having seen it yet, I'm assuming it's powerful and relevant filmmaking.
Felix Quinonez: I think this is a very good opening and it has so many things working in its favor. Because of its stellar reviews, A+ Cinemascore, the upcoming MLK day, and if it picks up some important Oscar nominations Selma has a very long life ahead of it.
Bruce Hall: I think that this result translates into a per theater average of just over $5,000, which tops everything else in wide release this week except for Taken 3. And since Taken 3 isn't going to win any Oscars when its time comes, I'll go ahead and give This Week in Quality to Selma.
Others have already touched on the near unanimous critical praise Selma has received, as well as the apparent financial success it will eventually be. All of this helps build the buzz for a film that already promises to be an awards season heavy hitter. And it bodes well in general for Paramount, at least until they make another Friday the 13th movie and lose my respect all over again.
Michael Lynderey: They should have started with a small release this frame, and expanded ultra-wide on the Martin Luther King, Jr. long weekend (in fact, I thought that was the plan). As is, it's looking like Selma will end up finishing with a lot less than I expected it to. Even after a couple of Oscar nominations, it probably won't get much past, say, $60 million, when the awards season is through. That's very solid, especially for a lower-budget film with no stars, but the movie probably could have taken in a lot more. What it's missing is the unapologetically crowd-pleasing elements The Butler had, and it's easy to see why: it's helmed by a more restrained, respectful director who maintains a fairly somber tone throughout. That isn't a bad thing, of course, but it just won't generate the same kind of excitement as its more blatantly populist cousin from last year.
Edwin Davies: I think this is a good result, though I agree with Matthew that it probably deserved to do better because it is a really fantastic piece of cinema. At the same time, it strikes me as a film which was always going to be something of a slow burn, building on word-of-mouth, critical support and awards attention to boost its fortunes over the long run. Next week will probably be the biggest indicator of how its fortunes will shape up, as we'll know then how many Oscars it's been nominated for, and whether or not it is connecting with audiences as strongly as the A+ Cinemascore suggests.
Kim Hollis: I'd agree that Oscar nominations are going to be critical, and it's really a shame that screeners weren't distributed early enough to get Selma the attention and support it needed on that front. I do think that it should have a strong weekend during the MLK Jr. holiday, which will give it some added momentum whether it gets major nominations or not. It's the kind of film that you want to see do well. I really admire the efforts that they've made to be sure that schoolchildren see it.
Max Braden: Something I've been waiting to see is whether this past year's upheaval in race relations due to events in Ferguson and Staten Island help support Selma. It's hard to tell if that's the case now. Would it have made as much at the box office a year ago? I think the buzz around Oyelowo's performance and Oprah Winfrey's involvement probably would have still been the driving force for audience interest. I'm sure the previous news events are still in the backs of people's minds when they think about the movie, but perhaps isn't the main reason people are seeing it. I did feel that the advertising for the movie tried to tell two tales: the history of Martin Luther King Jr. and also the events of Selma. I haven't seen it yet but the audience and critical response seems to be strong enough that I expect the movie's box office performance will be sustained through Oscar weekend.
Kim Hollis: What were your thoughts on the Golden Globes? What did you like/dislike? What do the awards do for you with regards to predictions for Academy Award nominations later this week?
Max Braden: Liked:
-Tina and Amy, of course.
-Clooney's speech, though you can always expect them to be expertly composed.
-Keaton's speech, though long, is a great example of the mindset of someone who (I think) is well grounded even despite (or maybe because of) his stardom past.
-Channing Tatum, whose inability to relax during award show presentations has reached side-splitting levels of entertainment for me.
Didn't Like:
- Margaret Cho's North Korean mockery, which felt like beating a dead horse and a little too much like an SNL skit for an awards show, even if it is the Globes. The first photo with Meryl Streep felt like a weak ripoff of Ellen's group Oscar selfie.
- The too-brief identification on screen for the category and award winners. It increasingly drove me crazy that I'd look away at my computer and look back and wonder through the whole acceptance speech who was talking and what they won for. If NBC can leave "#GoldenGlobes" on screen the entire show, surely there's room on screen to inform the audience about the less-than-famous people being awarded.
Michael Lynderey: As always, these shows aren't spectacular entertainment or anything, but they're kind of fun. Yes, the Arquette and Keaton speeches were probably the best. The humor ranged from hit (mostly Fey and Poehler) to very, very, miss (Wiig and Hader, the Cosby imitations that I didn't get and don't particularly wish to have explained to me). I did like Margaret Cho.
As for the Oscars, the ballots were all in the bank before the Globes aired, so that won't change. But it's clear now we're looking at a very uneventful race in most acting categories - with Simmons, Arquette, and Moore set to win with basically zero to no plausible insurgencies (I've heard some buzz about Aniston - including, "does her film actually exist?" - but the nomination is her reward, at least this year).
The most excitement is probably in what now looks like a two-man race between Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne. They both have somewhat compelling credentials for their candidacies, but neither, in a vacuum, is a particular slam-dunk. If someone like a Day-Lewis for Lincoln or Rourke for The Wrestler was running this year, they'd be an easy frontrunner (and I know Rourke lost).
Ultimately, it's probably going to go to the more predictable choice, Keaton, over the more untested Redmayne, who is an unknown commodity to most Americans (Benedict Cumberbatch really doesn't have a chance at this point).
Picture and Director will go to Boyhood, and so, from a box office perspective, almost every film to win in a major category at the Oscars this year will be one that, at least of now, hasn't even grossed $30 million dollars (Taken 3, can you spare a dime?).
Kim Hollis: I thought that overall it was a fairly lackluster show. The jokes weren't hitting, and even though I could tell that Poehler and Fey knew the Margaret Cho/North Korea thing wasn't working, it still went on and on and on - and they kept bringing her back onstage. It was awkward and totally lacking in any real humor.
I very much enjoyed Michael Keaton's acceptance speech (he's been a favorite of mine since I first saw him in a little movie called Night Shift in 1982), the Clooney intro and speech, and the fact that Grand Budapest Hotel won for Best Comedy or Musical. As a Wes Anderson mark, I'm pleased to see him get some attention. (Oddly enough, though, I would have chosen Birdman this year vs GBH.) I was also happy to see Richard Linklater onstage as well as the celebration from his friends and family. Even though I'd say it's generally a weak year for awards contenders, I love that we're seeing smaller, more independent projects moving into the forefront.