They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don’t They?
The 87th Annual Oscar Nominations: Same as it Ever Was
By J. Don Birnam
January 15, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
In the meantime, let’s analyze a bit of what we just learned.
Of the 107 guesses, I got 79 correct and 28 wrong, for a middling 73% accuracy rate - not my best showing (the total increases into the 80% rate when alternates are considered, at least!). Some of the easier categories like Best Supporting Actor and Best Editing I nailed five for five, but I did particularly poorly in the Documentary and Song races - those branches always go their own way and, without a lot of precursors it is hard to tell where the wind is blowing. It seems like Citizenfour and Lost Stars should cruise to victories in those races, although Glory could provide Selma a consolation prize in the Song category.
Surprises in the Acting Categories
Best Supporting Actor had the expected lineup, but the other acting races raised a few eyebrows. Laura Dern deservedly got in for her supporting turn in Wild, arguably over Jessica Chastain in a Most Violent Year (which went home empty-handed). I would have preferred to see Chastain over Meryl Streep’s 20th nomination, but there you have it.
Foxcatcher’s Steve Carrell got a very well-deserved nomination, ousting my prediction of David Oyelowo, who in my view gave the best performance by any actor this year. I would have likely bumped Cumberbatch but it was a very tough race this year. Meanwhile, Jennifer Aniston did not make it in for Cake, replaced instead by Marion Cotillard’s daring performance in Two Days, One Night. I haven’t seen Cake, but Cotillard is well-deserving and starred in one of the best films of the year. It is hard to argue with these choices.
Best Directing: Same as it ever was
For the first time since the Best Picture expansion over five years ago, something happened: a director got nominated for a movie that did not make Best Picture. Bennett Miller, the renowned director of Moneyball and Capote, snuck in for Best Director. You have to think that Foxcatcher just narrowly missed a Best Picture slot. Indeed, it appears as if Foxcatcher was much stronger down the stretch than many expected - landing those Best Actor and Best Director nods, both, in my view, at the expense of Selma nominations.
Indeed, the Best Directing five will inevitably raise a question that must be asked: Another set of five white males? Is this really all there is in Hollywood? The obvious answer is no. Angelina Jolie took an ambitious project to the screen (admittedly, the movie was not very good - but then again is the Imitation Game that good that its director deserves a nod?), and Ava DuVarney made the most relevant movie of the year. Neither got in. Perhaps there is a benign explanation: Unbroken isn’t that good and Selma didn’t screen in time. Or perhaps not. We will never know, but you’d better bet that the question will be asked.
On the other hand, the other obvious omission was Clint Eastwood for American Sniper. Despite its strong showing across the board, a Best Director miss for that film should weaken its chances significantly at least under old Oscar wisdom (but after two straight years of a Director/Picture mismatch at the Oscars, who knows).
Screenplays: Few Surprises
The story of the screenplay nominations neatly encapsulates the story of my Oscar 2014 prediction season. Where I expected Selma and Gone Girl to do well, Foxcatcher snuck in. In the original race, Selma’s spot went to Foxcatcher, while in the adapted category, Inherent Vice took Gone Girl’s spot. It is hard to argue with the other nominees, but with Gone Girl gone, The Imitation Game will likely receive a consolation Oscar in adapted (or a companion if it does sneak in for Best Picture). Meanwhile, in Original, Boyhood, Birdman, and the Grand Budapest Hotel will duke it out. I could see all three winning: the Academy could want to cement a Boyhood win by giving it as many Oscars as possible, or it may want to give Grand Budapest a consolation prize in a major category, or recognize Birdman’s inventive screenplay.
The bigger story, of course, is parallel to the same story as the Best Director race - screenplays by and about women and racial minorities are out in favor of stories by and about white males. I have always said that the Oscars are politics, and you can expect every major news outlet and Oscar blog to ask and cover this question for the next weeks and beyond.
Other Major Surprises: Gone Girl gone, Mr. Turner turned in
I would have to say that the biggest other surprise was The LEGO Movie not getting in for Best Animated Feature, leaving the space instead for The Song of the Sea. With the presumptive front-runner knocked out, it’s anyone’s guess as to who is going to win, but the smart money is probably on Globes winner How to Train Your Dragon 2.
In the Documentary category, the Roger Ebert documentary Life Itself was snubbed, clearing the path for Citizenfour to take home the gold. And in Foreign Language film, Sweden’s Miss for Force Majeure (Argentina’s Wild Tales got in instead) should pave the way for an easy win by the fantastic Ida, which also landed a somewhat unexpected but deserved Best Cinematography nod.
In the tech categories, Mr. Turner, Birdman and American Sniper all did a lot better than I thought they would. Mr. Turner was not particularly good, but few can argue with its craft, and the branches of the Academy gave it the right amount of attention. I also didn’t expect Birdman to do as well as it did, landing nods in both sound categories (along with Interstellar, Unbroken, and American Sniper). However, the lack of a Best Editing nomination for Birdman raises strong question marks, as no film has won Best Picture without an Editing nod in a very long time.
The Grand Budapest Hotel also did very well in the techs but really all around, as was mostly expected, even landing a makeup nod I thought would go to Maleficient. Indeed, its nominations leading count of nine nominations (tied with Birdman) should make it a sleeper contender for the Best Picture Oscar. Stranger things have happened.
I was very happy to see Hans Zimmer’s dazzling Interstellar score getting in, as it seemed the movie was teetering on the brink of extinction, but it did manage five nods in the technical categories. Alexandre Desplat, as expected, got two nominations for his Grand Budapest and Imitation Game scores - he has never won despite brilliant scores like The Queen and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, not to mention Zero Dark Thirty. This may not be his year if his votes cancel each other out, and he faces stiff competition from the Imitation Game score.
The fifth score to get in was Mr. Turner’s, over my pick of Trent Reznor’s Gone Girl. Indeed, Gone Girl was essentially shut out of contention except for the deserved Rosamund Pike Best Actress nod. They just don’t like David Fincher that much, do they?
Looking Ahead
So there you have it, folks. Boyhood’s six nominations will face off against Birdman and The Imitation Game, with American Sniper and The Grand Budapest Hotel making a serious try for the top prize. It is hard to fault the Academy a lot of its choices. I have always felt that complaints about “they’re too snobby” or “they’re not snobby” enough miss the point in many ways - the Oscar race is not about quality first and foremost. It is about popularity, campaigns, politics, and buzz. Quality plays a part for sure, but it is hardly the major factor.
Indeed, even in the tech categories the Academy routinely rewards a less deserving movie that they like a lot but cannot find space for in major categories. Expect this to happen this year in categories from Score to Cinematography to Art Direction.
But, truly, complaints about “their” tastes really ignores that much of it is dictated by critics (so question their tastes too, please) and audiences (another group with questionable tastes). Perhaps it is better to simply recognize that we each have our own eclectic, individual tastes, and that the Academy’s choices are fun to watch and guess and even stress over, but in the end they’re just someone else’s (the industry’s? the moment’s?) snapshot of a second in time.
Despite all of my defense of the Academy, which I have kept up against doubters and naysayers for years, this year poses a particular challenge. In a year when so many movies were made across the country and across the globe that did not feature the usual narrative of the supposedly flawed hero overcoming his shortcomings to save the girl, or the world, or himself, or all of the above, the Academy’s choices - essentially all of them - stuck to that narrative.
Just look at the Best Actress and Actor races. Of the Actress nominees, one is in a Best Picture contender (and a third-tier one at that). Of the Acting nominees, four of them are, and, again, Foxcatcher narrowly missed. So it is.
In the next weeks, I will offer in depth analysis of each category and my thoughts on where they are going. I will also offer my own, very personal, list of top ten movies of the year. I expect a fun third and final phase.