Monday Morning Quarterback Part III
By BOP Staff
January 22, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: This is fine, but it's mainly interesting as a test of Hart's appeal. The trailers weren't especially funny, and the concept wasn't as clear as Ride Along's, Josh Gad is not a name in the way that Ice Cube is, it was R-rated, and it didn't have a brand like Think Like a Man to boost its opening. So this was pretty much solely on Hart's shoulders, and he managed to push it to $21 million despite everything arrayed against it. That's a pretty decent endorsement of his appeal, especially since it will have covered its production budget by the end of Monday.
Felix Quinonez: I think if you compare it something like Ride Along, this might seem disappointing but that's not fair. If not for Kevin Hart, this movie might have opened in the low to mid teens. So if anything it keeps Hart's winning streak going, especially when you consider it's relatively low budget.
Kim Hollis: It's an okay result, but I can't help but feel that Screen Gems left some money on the table here. Hart did a fine job of stumping for The Wedding Ringer, but I wonder if the marketing could have been more aggressive. Even though I like Josh Gad, I think the film could have been propelled with a bigger name.
Michael Lynderey: I never really thought of Ice Cube as a box office draw, but looking at some of his starring roles, perhaps that was an omission on my part. As for The Wedding Ringer, it seems just to be marking time between Kevin Hart movies - something you could say for a lot of his films. I'm not sure exactly if Hart has yet matured into the kind of A-list comedy star that Will Ferrell (his future co-star) and Steve Carell (his future co-star?) have been for years now. His absolute breakout vehicle, both critically and commercially - an Elf or a The 40 Year-Old Virgin - still seems ahead of him (I really wouldn't rank Ride Along there). By the way, having seen the film, I still don't know what a "wedding ringer" is.
Kim Hollis: Paddington, the adaptation of the beloved British children's books, debuted with $19 million. What do you think of this result?
Edwin Davies: I think this is very good considering the lack of familiarity with the character in the US relative to the UK, and that the early trailers made it look pretty bad and spawned a derivative Creepy Paddington hashtag and Tumblr. Clearly the trailers worked for the target audience while the good reviews overcame any reticence that parents might have had. Those reviews might also help it in terms of legs going forward, especially since the slate for movies for kids is pretty sparse in the weeks ahead. Regardless of that, the film has already done spectacular business overseas, so its success in the US was primarily supplementary.
Felix Quinonez: This is a great opening. The source material isn't as familiar to American audiences but it still had a very good opening weekend, and because of its reviews, it might even have strong legs.
Kim Hollis: I'd say this is a terrific result. Considering that the movie originally looked like an awful mess, to have it debut near $20 million is fantastic. Since the film has accumulated truly positive reviews and an A Cinemascore, it should be able to chug along nicely over the next few weeks, too.
Michael Lynderey: Seems to follow more-or-less directly along the lines of Nanny McPhee. What can you say about Paddington? It's a nice little movie for the studio, it has crossed over to American audiences without any trouble, it gives Nicole Kidman at least a modest plus on her resume, and of course, the film itself certainly seems to be far from un-bearable.
Kim Hollis: Blackhat, the Michael Mann-directed film starring Chris Hemsworth, debuted with $3.9 million this weekend. What do you think of this result?
Edwin Davies: This is awful. There's no other way to say it. Michael Mann is a director with a proven track record when it comes to these kinds of thrillers and has a pretty vocal fanbase, so you'd expect him to deliver an opening weekend in the double digits at least. However, the film itself is getting terrible reviews, the ads failed the laugh test, both because of the image of Chris Hemsworth: Buff Hacker and the dialogue (just try to say the phrase "a Blackhat hacker named Hathaway" without laughing), and the whole techno thriller sub genre looks horribly dated at this point.
Felix Quinonez: I think this is a terrible result. Even if it had matched its very modest expectations it would have been a flop but it opened well below that. And when you consider the budget and marketing costs, this has almost no chance of breaking even. It's definitely a big misfire for both Mann and Hemsworth.
Brett Ballard-Beach: On the one end, Eastwood with his largest ever opening weekend and on the other, Mann not quite with his worst ever but tilting squarely towards the days of The Keep ($1.2 million opening) and Manhunter ($2.5 million opening) in the mid 1980s. Both of those finished below $10 million. I don't see this creeping much past that if at all.
Michael Lynderey: One thing is for sure: everybody who said that Paranoia proved that Liam Hemsworth is not a viable leading man has to take it back and apologize. If they ever reboot Thor...
Kim Hollis: What a disappointing result. I can't say that it's surprising at all, but to see a Michael Mann film do this poorly on a critical level is rough. The commercials and previews definitely gave the sense that there was something wrong (or awful) about Blackhat, and audiences easily smelled a big time dud.
Kim Hollis: What are your thoughts on the Academy Awards nominations announced this past week?
Michael Lynderey: A snub-fest! Every film and constituency that could have possibly been omitted, was omitted. If they wanted to make as many people mad as possible, they succeeded. Grievances I've read include: no Selma for screenwriting, directing, and acting, no Jake Gyllenhaal and Jennifer Aniston, no screenplay nod for Wild, a mere song nomination for The Lego Movie, and worst of all, no Roger Ebert?!? (Life Itself casually chucked out of Best Documentary; that one was personal). And they seemed to have a weird fetish for American Sniper, definitely beyond what is absolutely necessary, I think. Although given the box office this weekend, the Sniper nominations pretty much single-handedly disprove that Oscar voters are out-of-touch with the American public.
Otherwise they were fantastic.
Kim Hollis: I would say that they were mostly predictable with a few exceptions (The LEGO Movie, Selma receiving only two nominations). For me, one of the weirdest things about the nominations is that Foxcatcher received several top-line nods (Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Original Screenplay) but no Best Picture love. You have to imagine it was #9 and the last movie out of the running.
I have to say that I'm really happy to see a lot of people nominated getting the recognition that they are. Richard Linklater, Michael Keaton and Wes Anderson are all favorites of mine and I'm happy to see them being lauded by their peers.