They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
Handicapping the Technical Races: Part I
By J. Don Birnam
February 2, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Best Visual Effects
In what has become a battle of the big blockbusters, the visual effects category is where the audience-popular movies normally duke it out - and inevitably lose to a Best Picture nominee if one is in the mix. There is no such nominee this year - indeed, this will be the first year since 2007, when The Golden Compass surprised here, that the Oscar doesn’t go to a Best Picture nominee. Nevertheless there is a more “prestigious” movie in the bunch and that one will likely walk away with the trophy.
Two of the nominees here, Captain America: The Winter Soldier and X-Men: Days of Future Past, haven’t won any major precursor love in this category and seem to be going along for the ride. I doubt either has a chance.
I was most surprised to see the final installment of The Hobbit series not listed here after it made the list of finalists, given the poignant effects in the climatic scenes of the film, and I wrongly predicted Godzilla to score a nod - a silly prediction in retrospect given the poor critical reception the movie received. The last Hobbit entry, indeed, had to conform itself with a lone sound nod, a whimper of an exit for a franchise that once reached the summit of Best Picture glory.
The Planet of the Apes sequel has a shot for its amazing live-action animation capture effects (the original was predicted to win this award but then lost to Hugo), and The Guardians of the Galaxy gives the Academy a shot to throw a bone to the second-most popular movie of the year box-office wise. But as we have seen, the Academy doesn’t really seem to care about the public’s view anymore, so I doubt that will be enough to tip the scales.
Instead, I am sticking with the prediction I made when the movie came out and will jot down Interstellar for a win, which would give recognition to a movie that was clearly well-respected in the technical field despite its lackluster support elsewhere. Barring a Guardians upset, Interstellar should take this easily.
Best Original Score
The nominations in this category cannot be argued with, but two can be easily discounted. Mr. Turner’s soundtrack is moving and exquisite but has no chance to win, mostly because of the low-visibility of the movie and its overall poor reception with audiences. Interstellar is my favorite soundtrack in many years, and I would be thrilled by little more than a surprise win for Hans Zimmer here on Oscar night. Zimmer has amassed a stellar 10 nominations in this field but hasn’t won since way back when The Lion King triumphed in this category over 20 years ago. But only once since the year 2000, when Frida did it in 2002, has a non-Best Picture nominee emerged victorious here. As we have seen time and time again, they vote for the Best Picture nominees as a way to reward the runners-up for the ultimate prize.
Alexandre Desplat composed the scores of two Best Picture nominees and thus heard his name twice on nominations morning, one for The Grand Budapest Hotel and the other for The Imitation Game. But, they may have to give him five nods one year to ensure a victory - given the unfortunate losing record he has with the broader Academy (at eight nominations now with no wins, he’s close to the living record of 11 held by Thomas Newman). The Imitation Game may be Desplat’s closest chance at an Oscar yet, as it was the conventional-wisdom pick early in the year. It is the easiest place to reward the obviously beloved Best Picture nominee that scored writing, acting, directing, and editing nods, but may go home empty-handed if it doesn’t pull out a win here. The Grand Budapest’s soundtrack, by contrast, is to me a bit less obvious or moving and I would be genuinely surprised if it emerged victorious.
But watch out for Jóhann Jóhannsson’s score for The Theory of Everything for the win here. I thought it was the most moving of the bunch - it was subtle at first and then made its presence felt. It was the one that most matched the mood of the movie and led it, and it has already won the Golden Globe. Given that the voters’ ballots do not list the name of the composer, only the movie, it is no surprise that since Howard Shore won for the Return of the King soundtrack. Winners here have been relative unknowns and in most instances first-time nominees. Thus, I don’t think Jóhannsson’s obscurity will affect the outcome. Right now I’m predicting Theory of Everything with the Imitation Game the only potential spoiler.
Best Original Song
The almost-defunct Oscar category is now alive and well with a plethora of choices for a branch which, like many others, likes to do its own thing. Most surprising to me was the omission of Lana Del Ray’s moving “Big Eyes” from the Amy Adams movie by the same name in favor of the inclusion of “I’m Not Gonna Miss You,” from the obscure documentary Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me. That documentary was snubbed, however, by its branch. Indeed, it appears as if this year the Song branch had the role of fixer-upper, nominating movies that were expected to score elsewhere only to see their chances relegated to this category. The LEGO Movie, mysteriously shut out of the Best Animated Feature race, scored here for “Everything is Awesome,” and the controversial Selma, seemingly snubbed by the directors and actors, got in for Common’s “Glory,” which also won the Globe. “Grateful,” from the otherwise ignored Beyond the Lights landed Diane Warren her first Oscar nomination. And, rounding out the nominees is, to me, the most deserving of the bunch, “Lost Stars” from the moving Begin Again, directed by John Carney (Once).
The real question here is: will the Academy look to fix perceived snubs in other races here? If they do, I doubt the song from Glen Campbell will benefit, as that documentary isn’t exactly high on the list of unexpected omissions. Nor do I think The LEGO Movie’s song will benefit - I simply doubt Academy voters care about animation-category snubs. More likely, however, is that Selma will see its Oscar victory in this race. Not only is the song good, but it already won the Globe, and it’s literally the only place to reward that movie other than a death-defying, statistically improbable Best Picture victory for the film.
But another narrative is that the Academy voters (not a monolith, but still, of like minds) don’t like to be told what to do or won’t want to give in to the Selma snub narrative and go elsewhere. Indeed, before the Selma controversy, the smart money was on Adam Levine’s rendition of “Lost Stars” to take the gold. Indeed, while “Glory” is deserving on its own merit, “Lost Stars” is the central, pivotal part of the movie it is in (and being a plot-furthering device is one of the supposed eligibility criteria in this race). But the winner isn’t picked on the basis of eligibility criteria. It is, like all the other races, a popularity contest. I would give the Oscar to Begin Again, and it is your most likely upset, but the smart money today is on Selma’s “Glory” for the actual win.
Best Sound Mixing/Best Sound Editing
The conventional wisdom is that musicals always sneak into the Best Sound Mixing race because they feature the difficulty of combining music, vocals, dialogue, and effects. Despite that, I erred in predicting that Into the Woods would get in to Sound Mixing, and it didn’t.
This year, the categories match almost one for one. Interstellar, Unbroken, Birdman, and American Sniper landed nods in both races. The Hobbit received its sole nod in Sound Editing, and Whiplash got a deserved nod for Sound Mixing. I would eliminate the Hobbit first. It’s not that a split editing/mixing win doesn’t happen, but combined wins are far more common here than not, and lone wins are even rarer still when the movie hasn’t been at least nominated in the other race. You would think that similar logic would take Whiplash out of it for Sound Editing, but the sound is crucial and noteworthy in that pivotal last scene, so watch out for a Whiplash upset there.
As for the rest of the lot - as usual, Best Picture nominees tend to have an advantage here, with Slumdog Millionaire being the prime example of a movie that won arguably undeserved sound awards. It’s either a chance to spread the wealth among the nominees, or a chance to shower a beloved movie with Oscars as they did Slumdog. This discards Unbroken, which is not a Best Picture nominee, is not beloved, and in any case does not feature particularly riveting sounds outside the initial airplane shooting and ocean thunderstorm scenes.
Birdman was as a surprise nominee in both races, showing that the movie has broad support in all branches of the Academy. While that may speak to Birdman’s broader chances in the Best Picture race, I simply cannot see it pulling a victory in either category here. It does feature subtle but ever-present sound effects, both in its surreal and continuous-shot scenes, as well as in its multiple transitions. But I still think Birdman’s sound is too subtle for the non-sound guys in the Academy. I would not check that box in any ballot for either category.
Interstellar is to me (no surprise) the deserving winner in both categories. Indeed, without the presence of the likely winner, I would think Interstellar wins here both because “the loudest movie” always wins sound is a moniker I buy into, but also because the sound is impossible to ignore. And while the movie wasn’t as beloved as I would have wanted, it also wasn’t as panned as, say, Unbroken. Moreover, Interstellar had the challenge of creating the most difficult sounds and in my view pulled off the “sounds of silence in space” gimmick much more faithfully than Gravity did (where Alfonso Cuarón tried to use the trick of sound from the perspective of inside the ship, which Nolan strictly resisted). On top of that, Interstellar had to combine a challenging and ever-present soundtrack with packed dialogue, making it a worthy contender in Sound Mixing. To me, therefore, Interstellar should win both races, and will remain the highest threat for an upset.
But, the safe money here is clearly the war movie and Best Picture nominee American Sniper. War movies have done well here of late: Lone Survivor and The Hurt Locker swept these categories. I don’t find the sound editing in the movie that impressive - I would think they would have tired of the gunfire effects and in any case thought Fury was a more deserving nominee here. Aside from the gunshot sequence combining dialogue on the phone, and the climatic sandstorm scene, the soundtrack is mostly muted and the dialogue is always deadpan.
But set aside my own personal views: American Sniper is a respected Best Picture nominee that has the strong support of the so-called “steak eaters” group within the Academy. It did very well in theaters and in doing so it essentially earned at least one or two Oscars - the Oscars may ignore box office now for Best Picture, but they will reward a movie that does well with at least one or two below-the-line wins. See Gravity and Avatar and Inception, etc. The possibility that it will earn even more prestigious accolades remains a real one, but right now I would say it is in line to clearly win both Sound categories. Interstellar is a potential spoiler in both, but I have a stronger feeling that Whiplash, which has passionate support, could pull an upset in Sound Editing.