They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don’t They?
Did The Directors’ Guild Seal It For Birdman?
By J. Don Birnam
February 10, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Focusing first on the American guilds, to be honest, Birdman’s domination is nothing short of startling. The following movies have won all three of the PGA/SAG/DGA trifecta: Argo, The King’s Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men, Return of the King, Chicago, American Beauty, and Apollo 13. If you take out Apollo 13 (during that anomalous year, Braveheart sent the screeners to everyone for the first time year) it is obvious what all the other movies have in common. They all won Best Picture, and all but two also won Best Director.
So it may be that this year is another Social Network/King’s Speech year. The Social Network won every critical award under the sun and the Globes, but when the guilds began to speak, it all came to a screeching halt and The King’s Speech became unstoppable. The problem is, Boyhood is no Social Network, and Birdman is no King’s Speech. Boyhood is not the dark and despairing tale of lost friendships, but instead packs an uplifting and nostalgic message about life. And Birdman is not a paint-by-numbers bland story of world redemption, but instead showcases complex symbolism and a long range of emotion. If anything, you would expect an opposite relationship between the two with Boyhood spoiling Birdman.
But, in most of the years listed above, the trifecta winner also won big at BAFTA, where Birdman faltered and won only cinematography. What to make of this? I think those looking for ways to save Boyhood will point to BAFTA and perhaps they will be right. But the three guilds soundly rejecting Boyhood for Birdman is to me significant. I don’t think it’s a runaway like the Argo year, say, but Birdman is your undeniable front-runner no matter how much those loyal to Boyhood want to tell you otherwise (I was on that boat during The Social Network’s collapse, so I know quite well what it feels like). That said, the BAFTAs moved their date around 2008 to precede the Oscars and, as they would openly admit, try to predict or influence them, and since that year Best Picture at BAFTA has gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars. So Boyhood’s win should be taken very seriously. This is a close race.
As an aside, BAFTA delivered expected wins to Patricia Arquette, J.K Simmons, Julianne Moore, and Eddie Redmayne. Those four also won the SAG, but it is rare for the four to match at SAG/BAFTA/Oscar, so oddly enough, this may make the case for Keaton stronger. And BAFTA also gave Whiplash Best Sound and Best Editing, two categories I’ve already foreseen could go to that movie in previous columns.
On to handicapping some of the remaining races to cover. Let’s do the three sealed acting races today along with writing, and leave the competitive Picture, Director, and Actor last.
Best Supporting Actor
J.K. Simmons has won everything under the sun and this category is a gimme on Oscar night. He also happens to give the best of the performances. My only surprise is that Tom Wilkinson’s bravura portrayal of LBJ in Selma didn’t make it, but I suppose that since his character was the epicenter of the silly controversy surrounding the movie, they just stayed away. His spot instead went to the somewhat dialed-in performance Robert Duvall gave in The Judge, who I suppose is happy to be back in contention after 15 years.
Mark Ruffalo also made the cut and is perhaps an overall underrated actor, but I found his performance in Foxcatcher overwhelmed by Steve Carrell’s sinister lead, and doubt Ruffalo has a shot. Nor does Ethan Hawke for his 12-year portrayal of a wayward father in Boyhood. There is really no “Oscar-worthy” scene in the movie for him.
If anyone had an outside shot, it would be Ed Norton for his magnificent supporting performance in Birdman. Norton is overdue an Oscar win, but it likely won’t come this year for the manic, infuriating actor he portrays in the Best Picture front-runner. The real question is whether they will give Birdman Best Picture without an acting award - and if it’s not in this category, then where will it be?
In any case, lead roles disguised as supporting have an advantage here, and this year is no different for J.K. Simmons’ portrayal of the villainous teacher in Whiplash. Villains, too, seem to find a lot of love here of late. This is the easiest call of the night.
Best Supporting Actress
Nor should there be too much suspense regarding the outcome of this race, where my only disappointment was not hearing Rene Russo’s name called for her exacting portrayal of a ruthless TV executive in Nightcrawler, reminiscent of Faye Dunaway’s Oscar-winning performance in Network.
Instead, Laura Dern’s portrayal of the lead character’s mother in Wild took the spot for her loopy, walking-in-clouds performance. The nomination is the end of the road for her, however. The same can be said for Keira Knightley’s portrayal of the lead female character in The Imitation Game. Knightley arguably gives the best performance of her career as the strong-willed, independent woman in a male-dominated industry, and as Turing’s emotional crutch. This won’t be Knightley’s year but future nominations are assured.
Meryl Streep, in her 19th nomination (but only fourth in this category), will not walk away with her fourth Oscar for her performance as The Witch (arguably, the lead) in Into The Woods. Streep gives, as usual, an outstanding performance, but the competition is too thick. Instead, Streep will extend her record as the person with the most losses in the acting categories of all time.
The real surprise for me was Emma Stone’s breakthrough performance as the emotionally conflicted, aggressive daughter of the lead character in Birdman. Based on merit, I would give the award to Stone for her nuanced and out-of-comfort zone portrayal. She really gave it all and I hope this is not her last nomination.
But this year, the category belongs to Patricia Arquette in a cakewalk. Again, category fraud has something to do with it, as she obviously plays the lead female character. The fact that Arquette allowed herself to be filmed as she aged and gained weight, without much makeup or fuzz, also has become a source of praise and part of the narrative behind the award. She has, like Simmons, won all precursors and given great speeches, so the Oscar is all but hers.
Best Actress
The consensus is that Julianne Moore will finally win a long overdue Oscar, and I am certainly hoping this becomes true. Still, one is always queasy in this category with the old Academy, who just loves to give it to younger girls. The year that Marion Cotillard (who is nominated again this year) won was one such year. But perhaps part of the reason was that her main contender, Julie Christie, was a past winner, and Cotillard arguably gave the best performance that year.
This is a bit harder to fit into that box. Moore does not necessarily give her career best performance in the emotionally exhausting Still Alice. Nor did a lot of people see that movie. On the other hand, Cotillard’s realistic portrayal of the lead in Two Days, One Night, was also not necessarily seen. But Cotillard does give, as usual, a full embodiment of her character, and is a worthy nominee.
Reese Witherspoon also returned to the category for the second time, and is the other past winner here. Her performance in Wild is certainly worthy of a nomination, as Witherspoon conveys the varied depth of feelings - depression, anxiety, lust, disillusionment, resistance, and valor - necessary to the part. She’s likely running in fourth place this year, but I’m sure ecstatic to see her receive only her second nod after her win on the first try for Walk the Line.
Felicity Jones is, to me, the least deserving of the contenders. Her portrayal of Stephen Hawking’s wife in The Theory of Everything didn’t seem that innovative. I would have preferred to see her spot go to Jennifer Aniston for Cake, but Best Picture contention is no laughing matter (and Jones is the only one of the five to have that distinction, so surely she will get some votes).
To me, however, the best performance by far is Rosamund Pike’s Amy Dunne in Gone Girl. Chilling, defying, austere, and sinister, Pike inhabits the bedeviled, insane, and disturbingly sympathetic crazy lady in David Fincher’s Gone Girl. She has been critically acclaimed since the moment the movie opened, and has even won several critical awards (Moore, by contrast, has won relatively few).
If this were a merit-based award only, Pike would win easily. But we all know that sometimes they like to atone for past mistakes, and who can blame them? If I had a ballot I would likely also mark down Julianne Moore because she is criminally overdue, and hopefully the correction will finally come this year. If there is an upset, I’ll just hope it’s Pike and not one of the two women who already have a statuette, or the one who is in my opinion the least deserving of one this year.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The big surprise here was the snub of Gillian Flynn for adapting her own novel into Gone Girl. Instead, they made room for Whiplash, as unlike precursors, the Academy deemed it an original screenplay. As admired as that movie is for many things, I don’t think its screenplay is one of them, so we can scratch that off the list.
Nor would I take seriously the chances of Paul Thomas Anderson for adapting Inherent Vice. Although the screenplay is perhaps the best of the bunch, the movie is not a Best Picture contender like the other nominees, and it is just happy to be here.
For the win I’d look between American Sniper, The Theory of Everything, and The Imitation Game. If I felt a groundswell of support for Sniper (for example, a surprise Clint Eastwood DGA win), I would give it more chances. But I don’t see it happening at the moment. More important, Sniper will or can be lauded in other races like Sound and even Actor. The Theory of Everything, similarly, can win score or actor. The Imitation Game, by contrast, has very little wiggle room left in the other categories, and it is considered the current third place for Best Picture. With Weinstein behind it, I think it should pull through at least in one race and this is the most logical one for that to happen.
Best Original Screenplay
This is perhaps one of the toughest categories of the night, as any of three could win. I was happy to see Dan Gilroy get in for the excellent Nightcrawler, but that movie missed elsewhere and is in a distant third. Foxcatcher is also a welcome entry, but again, the race here is boiling down to the big three.
In a normal year, a win for Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel would make sense. It would be similar to last year’s win for Her. They respect the originality of the movie and its creative writing, but want to go elsewhere for the Best Picture prize, so they give this as a consolation prize. That scenario may still play out. The Academy may not want to give Linklater, Picture, Director, and Writing. Indeed, all three of Linklater, Inarritu, and Anderson are up for all three awards. How awesome would it be if they just split them between the three of them? If they are thinking that way, then the least important of the three will go to Anderson for Budapest Hotel.
However, watch out for an early win here by either Boyhood or Birdman. That could signify which movie is going to come out on top. Personally, I have a very hard time visualizing a Boyhood win here. It is a fantastic directorial achievement, an amazing project, but is the screenplay that innovative? Not in my view. Birdman, by contrast, starts and revolves around the dialogue and the crazy characters. Thus, a win by Birdman here may not mean much for its Best Picture chances, whereas a win for Boyhood would, in my view.
Right now, I’m going to chalk down Birdman for the win here, but I could see this going to Anderson very easily.