They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
The Other Feature Films
By J. Don Birnam
February 12, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Best Animated Feature
The biggest story on Oscar morning was arguably the snub for The LEGO Movie, and that became the biggest story in this category. The big question is: with LEGO gone, who will win? It seems from the Annie awards and other precursors since the nominations, that How to Train Your Dragon 2 is the consensus favorite.
Here’s a funny bit: The LEGO Movie was winning every precursor in sight (though Dragon did win the Globe) and then when the Academy snubbed it, it stopped winning (but it did win the BAFTA). It’s funny how the industry kowtows to the Academy like that, and/or seems to want to rubber-stamp or agree with its choices. One would hope for a bit more originality sometimes, but alas.
(On the other hand, it is also funny how BAFTA this year seemed to say to the Academy that they were going their own way with Boyhood and The LEGO Movie. After six consecutive years of anointing the Academy’s Best Picture winner in the weeks before the show, I find it somewhat comedic that BAFTA now decides to show off its independence.)
In any case, Dragon is the likely and worthy victor. The original entry in this movie fell to Toy Story 3 (which was then a Best Picture nominee), but this is their chance to reward a well-respected (by audiences and critics) franchise. The score is again exquisite, and the story is refreshingly different from the first while keeping the same overall themes that made it successful.
My personal favorite, and likely the runner-up, is Big Hero 6, this year’s Disney entry into the race. Like its old ally Pixar, Disney really knows how to bring imagination and warmth into old cartoon formulas, providing new depths of both animation and story-telling. Watching the movie next to my niece and seeing her enthralled by the plot shows how transcendent these movies are. It’s the old Toy Story/Shrek formula, and it keeps going strong.
Beyond that, I have to confess dereliction. I saw The Boxtrolls but actually kept falling asleep repeatedly. The plot seemed uninteresting, and I can’t imagine this winning. To be fair, the animation is exquisite and the story, if told somewhat tighter, is compelling. But it’s a distant third. The other two entries, meanwhile, are happy to be nominated. Song of the Sea, by the studio that brought you the surprise nominee Secret of Kells in 2009, is a traditional animation piece telling an old Celtic tale. The Tale of Princess Kaguya, an expected nominee by the same studio that brought you the 2002 winner Spirited Away and last year’s exquisite nominee The Wind Rises, is the kind of artistic Japanese animation that the branch loves to nominate, but the Academy has only once rewarded. Indeed, that was the only year that traditional animation has won in this category, and I do not expect that streak to be broken.
Mark down How to Train Your Dragon 2 for the easy win.
Best Documentary Feature
This race seems an even easier call. First, the usual disclaimer: every year it’s hard to get one’s hand on all five nominees, and this year I missed The Salt of the Earth. Please discount my predictions (even more) accordingly. I do not like to predict anything either way on movies I have not seen myself, so I will treat this category as if it had four nominees.
The frontrunner, past nominee Laura Poitras’ real-time filming of Ed Snowden’s leak to reporters of certain files just as he’s spilling the beans to Glenn Greenwald and a reporter at The Guardian is at the very least enthralling and gripping. The guts behind the filming and airing of a film like Citizenfour are astounding, and the story is simply the most relevant, shocking, and controversial of the lot. The real question is whether the Academy have the same guts to reward it. Controversy has been something the at-large membership has shied away from almost every year since they had to put up with political speeches by Michael Moore and Al Gore during their wins (God forbid documentarians discussing actually important topics when they take the stage, even if we disagree with them).
If I had to pick an upset, it would be Finding Vivian Maier, an essential carbon copy of past blasé winner Searching For Sugarman. Vivian Maier is an interesting and moving exploration of a mysterious and likely troubled woman’s life. It would be one of those “Reward the subject, not the movie’s quality” awards, a common staple in this category.
Or if there is to be an upset, it could easily be Virunga, the Netflix-sponsored flick about a group of insanely brave rangers defending mountain gorillas in war-torn Zimbabwe. First, the boldness of the men is bone-chilling, you can’t not root for them. Second, some of the scenery is breathtakingly beautiful. Finally, while the Academy of late hasn’t rewarded political documentaries that hit close to home, they love them when they can get holier-than-thou about other people. But Virunga is actually an excellent movie and it would be a good case of rewarding the subject on top of the movie.
But my personal absolute favorite of the bunch is the astounding Last Days in Vietnam, and I would be gleeful if that one stole it from Citizenfour. Last Days tells the story of the final days before the fall of Saigon to the Communist-led North Vietnamese army and of certain Americans’ efforts to save as many pro-Western Vietnamese as possible. Poignant and disturbing, using a lot of modern day interviews combined with real-time footage, Last Days was the most informative and eye-opening. It indicts politicians who betrayed old allies without crossing the dangerous line of taking a side on whether the war in Vietnam itself was a good idea. Alas, it seems too old school in style to be a serious contender.
Despite this, I cannot see anything ousting Citizenfour, which has won the PGA, the DGA, the BAFTA, etc. If a clear alternative existed so that they could avoid the controversy that will surely result from its win, then I would predict that. But there isn’t, so there won’t be.
Best Foreign Language Film
Force Majeure, one of the best, darkest dramas of the year to deal with the insanity of the human condition, was snubbed here, so there goes my favorite. And, I unfortunately could not get my hands on Estonia’s Tangerines, so, again, I’m only informed with respect to four of the five nominees.
With the Force Majeure snub, the race boils down to a fight between Poland’s Ida and Russia’s Leviathan. A word on the others: Mauritania’s Timbuktu is one of the most haunting films of the year. It tells the story of a group of families and individuals coping with the radical Islamist takeover of Mali and their communities. Some mayor somewhere (I think Paris after the tragic events there) tried to ban this movie, I read, as being an apologist piece towards radical Islam. If one story could sum up the stupidity to which our polity has stooped today, that would be it. If this film is anything, it is an unambiguous, scathing, truthful, and unapologetic indictment of the horrible things that are perpetuated in the name of religious fanaticism, and radical Islam in particular. The most effective narrative tool is the hypocrisy of the self-anointed leaders, none of which live up to the expectations they set for others. The movie shows the human tragedy that the extremists in that religion inflict upon others, and would be a worthy winner if it weren’t for others way ahead of it (but, for what it’s worth, it was rewarded at Cannes with some prizes). It is a beautiful, heartfelt story by a filmmaker whose own country has been devastated by the takeover of extremists. It is highly recommended.
Wild Tales, Argentina’s latest triumph into the final five, is another contender that definitely fits right into the Academy’s modern Foreign Language wheelhouse. The story is told as six vignettes united by similar themes. The most recognizable actor also spearheaded Argentina’s latest triumph here, 2009’s The Secret in Their Eyes, and the score is by the past Oscar winner Gustavo Santaolalla. The film would be more compelling except the short format, in my opinion, hurts it, and I have trouble seeing this one pulling off an upset. That said, one of the stories is mired in controversy (of course it is, it’s the Oscar) - given the recent political events relating to the assassination of a public prosecutor in Argentina. The appearance of a similar story here in Wild Tales is surely coincidental but nonetheless disturbing. If you think the controversies over Selma and American Sniper are something, you should see what’s going on in Argentina over Wild Tales.
And speaking of controversy, there is plenty to go around in this race this year around the two frontrunners, both of which have their fair share. Ida, my favorite of the two, has been attacked by individuals in Poland claiming the movie does not accurately explain the situation that Poles were facing under Nazi rule at the time of the events in the film. They argue this because (minor spoiler alert) the fictional characters in the movie commit heinous acts against an innocent Jewish family under fear of Nazi retaliation should they have failed to act. Thus, the contrarians say, the Poles are unfairly portrayed as savages without the proper context. Rubbish, I say, having seen the film. The movie does no such thing. There are no bad guys - all are clear victims of the Nazis, even those that pull the proverbial trigger. But I guess it’s refreshing (?) to see that not only in the United States are we making it a habit of finding controversy over movies. I guess that means the medium is alive and well.
Leviathan, meanwhile, has a price on its head, as authorities in Russia ask that it be banned for its supposedly unfair portrayal of the currently Russian regime. The Academy will pay little attention to these tiffs, and neither should you. Leviathan, yes, is critical, but most of the criticism of authoritarianism is, in my view, warranted.
It’s hard for me to pick a winner objectively here, because I’m so partial to the beautiful, haunting, and emotionally muted but powerful Ida (which also has a Best Cinematography nod). The story, as I have covered, is of a young girl about to become a nun, and of the last hurdle she has to encounter to do so. The past she discovers - she is Jewish and the survivor of Nazi-occupied Poland - is chilling to the bone, and the experiences of hatred, bitterness, and redemption and lust that she finds along the way, as a way to deal, are beautiful. Nor should you make much of Ida’s additional nomination outside of Foreign Language. That helped neither The White Ribbon nor Pan’s Labyrinth win in past years.
Moreover, Leviathan is timely – it is about the corruption and authoritarianism and Russia and feels almost like a documentary. Poland is currently tied with Israel for most nominations (10) with no wins, and I’m hopeful Ida will end that streak. Ida won at BAFTA but Leviathan scored the Golden Globe. I’m going with Leviathan, but this one still feels in flux, to be honest. When there is no clear front-runner here, the Academy always surprises. This one may change.