They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
Those Pesky Shorts
By J. Don Birnam
February 17, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Still, if you’re going to have a shot at winning your Oscar pool, you will have to know something about categories. At the very least, there are clear options you can eliminate, and that helps. By the way, each of the last three years I’ve gone two for three in these, which is the minimum you need to stay competitive in a good ballot race. Let’s shoot for a hat trick this year, although there is the least amount of consensus amongst the pundits in these races that there has been in years.
Here’s a general rule of thumb: the obvious choice is very rarely the winner because only a small group of quirky individuals tends to vote for these. And be forewarned, I’m predicting all the obvious choices, so caveat emptor.
Best Animated Short
The animated shorts are a delight because they allow artists to exhibit different styles of animation and convey messages in punchy detail. They’re available in theaters, on demand, and on iTunes, and no one that I have urged to seek them out and spend a few dollars supporting up-and-coming filmmakers has reported anything but enjoyment.
The category is also fascinating as a mirror of the history of the Walt Disney Company. The award began with the fifth Oscars in 1932, and 10 of the first 11 years the race was won by Walt Disney himself, accounting for 10 of his still-record 22 Academy Awards. After Disney’s death in 1965, the studio won two more times that decade but then faded from contention, receiving only three or so nominations over the course of the next 40 years, as the company struggled to reinvent its identity and even survive. It wasn’t until after the Disney rebirth of the early 1990s that we see Walt Disney Studios appear again in the animated shorts race (and it restarted winning Oscars in other categories), and it was only two years ago with “Paperman,” that they achieved victory in this race after a 50 year absence (!). They’re certainly hoping to win in this race again, and, as we shall see, have a good chance of doing so.
So, the nominees. The shortest of the bunch, and perhaps the cleverest and darkest, is “A Single Life,” which tells the story of a woman who discovers a record that, when played back and forward, allows her to travel back and forward through time. It is cute and packs a good punch in its quick three-minute run time, but films this brief rarely win here, and I don’t think this one will either, even though it is witty and deserving.
Nor will “The Bigger Picture” take the prize. The animation is perhaps the most inventive, blending in claymation, traditional animation, and realistic animation, all with real objects, to give a sense of depth of characters and objects in each scene. The story is also moving in its own right. But some of the outsize symbolisms in the piece distract from it a bit and, in the seven years I’ve been watching the shorts, no short has won that features these styles. Some pundits are marking this one down, but I will be surprised if it pulls it off - it is a bit outside of the mainstream they’ve selected here before.
Canada’s “Me and My Moulton” is one I’ve also seen predicted by some, but I also don’t see it. It tells the story of a girl and what happens when she asks her parents for a bike. It is touching but not particularly striking or inventive, and it is the least memorable of the group.
I think the race boils down to Disney’s “Feast,” which screened ahead of Big Hero 6 in theaters, and the emotionally complex and symbolic “The Dam Keeper.” It would be a mistake to predict a win for Disney’s entry simply because it is Disney or because it screened ahead of a movie people saw and therefore had an audience. Last year, I went down that path predicting “Get a Horse!” to win - it had screened in front of the record-breaking and Oscar-winning Frozen - and the much more emotional “Mr. Hublot” came out on top. In retrospect, that outcome seemed obvious. More often than not the short with an effective emotional punch wins these races.
But, unlike “Get a Horse,” “Feast” does pull at the heart strings. It tells the story of a man’s relationship with his dog as he moves through life, and reinvents the old adage of dog as man’s best friend. It is beautifully colored, hysterical at times, and truly heart-warming. I haven’t seen a short I liked this much in a couple of years. Still, I wonder whether my judgment is clouded again and I’m not seeing that the symbolic, beautiful, and complex “The Dam Keeper” is the real threat. It tells the story of a pig who is the target of bullying by others in school, and how he navigates those issues. Past winners here, including “Mr. Hublot,” “The Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore,” etc., all feature lonesome, melancholic characters, like the pig in this movie.
I’m going to stick to my favorite (and sink or swim again with the Disney ship) and mark down “Feast” for the win, but “The Dam Keeper” is a very likely outcome as well.
Best Live Action Short
Of three challenging shorts categories this year, the live action is the hardest to predict. Looking at past winners provides no solace: sometimes quirky and artistic films win, sometimes emotional pieces take the prize, and they’ve even awarded pseudo-political commentary films.
I would discard “Butter Lamp” first. It is a stationary camera shot of a Tibetan photographer taking pictures of individuals with different fake backgrounds. The political message is subtle (the backgrounds contrast capitalism and communism, for example) but perhaps too much so, and very little happens. The message will go way above the head of most.
“Boogaloo and Graham” is my favorite. It recounts the story of two young brothers living in troubled Northern Ireland in the 1970s, and how their father’s purchase of two chicks for them marked their childhood. It is adorable and quick, and just plain funny, but for the most part the funnily touching films don’t win here, so I’m not picking this one, either.
“Parvaneh” has been picked by other pundits, and I could see it. An Afghani girl living in rural Switzerland travels to Zurich to wire money to her ailing father back home, and encounters an unexpected friend in the journey. The movie is uplifting if emotionally and intellectually facile (young immigrant woman discovers a new world and is rescued by friendly white savior). But I could see this pulling it off as it will attract a lot of the “feel good” vote. Plus, “Parvaneh” was already commended by the Academy, winning the Silver Medal at the Student Academy Awards in 2013, so perhaps it will take home an actual Oscar this time around.
An entry from Israel, “Aya,” is the longest of the bunch (at 39 minutes, almost documentary short length) and has been commended and awarded in film festivals. It is the most emotionally intriguing of the bunch, telling the story of a woman who purposefully picks up a stranger at the airport, pretending to be her anointed limo driver, and drives him to his remote destination. To me, the movie seemed rather pointless, but I can appreciate the artistry of the music and lighting and the emotional and exquisite acting by the two characters. In its way, it stays with you, and I could see this winning.
But I’m going for the obvious choice here again, and that is the British “The Phone Call.” Starring the beloved Sally Hawkins and past-Oscar winner Jim Broadbent, “The Phone Call” tells the story of a woman who works at a crisis center and receives a call from a man who is in the process of committing suicide. Hawkins delivers a moving, exacting performance, and the film is quick-paced, gripping, and dramatic. The Academy may go for the showier piece in “Aya,” or the feel-good movie “Parvaneh,” but I’ll predict the best of the bunch in my pool and mark down “The Phone Call.”
Best Documentary Short
Watching the documentary shorts is perhaps the lowest point of covering the Oscar race, as most pieces are skilled at making their points (which are rarely uplifting) quickly, forcefully, and memorably. This year was no exception, as there is not a happy film in the bunch.
The easiest one to discard, in my view, is “White Earth,” which examines, I suppose, some of the consequences of increased oil-rigging in the northern American plains. They interview three children and an immigrant to explore what their life is like. Not much happens, and no real point is made. This will not win.
Some think that Mexico’s “La Parka (The Reaper)” has a shot. It is likely the most stylistic of the bunch. It tells the story, and contains some of the philosophical musings about death, of a butcher who has been in charge of killing cattle at the startling pace of thousands every week for over 20 years. The imagery is subtly disturbing, and the comparisons between the slaughter of animals and the inevitableness of human death are understated but very chilling. The Reaper, himself, is a disturbed character. As an artistic feature, “La Parka” is the best of the bunch, but it doesn’t feel like much of a documentary and doesn’t tug at the heart strings as much as the others. I’ve seen a couple of websites picking this, but I would not mark this down on my pool. It just doesn’t feel “important” enough.
The win is likely between two emotional Polish pieces and one American one. The American one, “Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press One,” is what I have marked down right now. It follows workers at the crisis center that deals with veterans as they are threatening to kill themselves. Indeed, it showcases mini-suspense vignettes and crises that workers at the center have to deal with. Essentially, it is the real-life version of “The Phone Call” from the Live Action race. The documentary is not as stylistic as the two Polish pieces but it is perhaps the most “important,” and could be a clear way to reward the subject matter along with the film, particularly in a year where the pro-veteran narrative of American Sniper is in the race. And it would be a worthy winner, in my view.
But, once more, don’t discount the power of emotion. The Polish “Our Curse” is a confessional piece of sorts by two young parents who have a son afflicted by something known as Oden’s Curse - a disease that makes the body stop breathing while sleeping. This is, of course, particularly cruel for a baby, who has to have a tracheotomy and wear a tube for the rest of his life. The emotional hardships the parents go through and the love with which they shower the baby, coupled with some disturbing tube-in-throat scenes, are the most upsetting and got the strongest reactions from audiences. It is touching beyond belief, and beautiful.
And then there is the other Polish entry, “Joanna,” prepared by a woman who had terminal cancer while she documents her relationship with her young son in her final days. Poignantly, Joanna begins to notice and cherish the small details in life and conveys this in beautiful ways in the film. The film is very stylized and could win for that, although I found it slower and less gripping (perhaps purposefully so) than “Our Curse” or “Crisis Hotline.”
To be frank I’m a bit perplexed as between these three. Past history does not help much as there is precedent for wins by all types of documentaries. Wins rewarding good work done by selfless individuals like in “Strangers No More” a few years back support a win by “Crisis Hotline,” while wins to undeniably likable characters that overcome adversity like “Inocente” two years ago support “Our Curse” this year. So I’m picking “Crisis Hotline” for the win but “Our Curse” is the obvious spoiler.
This is it folks, the home stretch. In the coming days I will handicap the three hardest races of the year, which also happen to be the most important: Best Actor, Best Director, and Best Picture, and then it will be time for final predictions. We will be putting a bow on it before you can say Boyman.