They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
Final Predictions for the 87th Annual Academy Awards
By J. Don Birnam
February 21, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com

Man, Bradley Cooper hogs all the attention.
It’s all over but the crying, folks. Time to put pen to paper and give our final predictions for the Oscars. The votes have been cast and are being tabulated. The accountants likely know by now who will go home with the gold statuettes and, on Sunday, we too will find out.

Given the early release of some of the contenders this year, this felt like an inordinately long Oscar campaign, and I’ll be more than ready to put it to rest. Regardless of what wins, Boyhood will be seen as a landmark of American cinema in the years to come. Birdman’s fate seems more uncertain, despite its greatness. It does depict a snapshot of what Hollywood is today: an industry beset by anxiety over its over-commercialization. And as a technical achievement, it towers over its competition. Other Oscar stories that will be remembered from this year include the Sony hacks and the scandal they caused, the disappointing awards performance of the highly-anticipated Unbroken, the snubbing of Selma and the controversy it resulted in, and the phenomenal box office success of American Sniper. That was the movies in 2014.

Oft-repeated was also the idea that it was a weak year for movies. I don’t buy it. The movies are out there, you just have to look for them. At least four or five of the Best Picture nominees are great movies, worth several viewings, and many others that the Academy didn’t recognize are as well. And my own favorite movies of the year, Interstellar and Gone Girl, fell short of Oscar glory (as is usually the case). I predict both superb films will be rehabilitated outside the confines of the brutal awards race in years to come.

So, on to final predictions. Last year, all categories seemed locked and there were no surprises. Oscar watchers complained of boredom, but in reality it made our jobs easier. Be careful what you wish for seems appropriate here, because several categories seem to me to be wide open. It’s tricky this year because there is so much love for so many movies, because BAFTA and the guilds are pulling us in opposite direction, and because neither frontrunner feels like a typical Best Picture movie. Both Boyhood and Birdman are way outside the Academy’s comfort zone. But if you want a good score you can just tick off the BAFTA winners or the pundits’ favorites, and you should be OK for the most part. Going out on limbs is where you can really sink.

When in doubt, I on occasion mark down what I think is the objectively deserving winner in the category. Sometimes that helps, but it can be perilous in years when the Academy is just sweeping it for a movie. The prognosticators understand the technical races more than the disaffected old Academy voter, and that can work against us. But because this does not appear to be a “sweep” year, picking the objective best may be advisable. I’ll try to annotate my predictions - some of which have changed since I analyzed the categories - to help you decide whether to agree with me whenever I go out on the limb, or stick to the safer choice.

In any case, here goes nothing.

Best Visual Effects: I’m sticking to Interstellar because it is the most “prestigious” of the nominees. Some think Planet of the Apes can steal it.

Best Sound Editing: American Sniper (consensus pick).

Best Sound Mixing: My gut has been saying Whiplash all along and I’m sticking with it as the objective best of the bunch. Most of the times Mixing goes to the Editing winner, so picking American Sniper here may be smarter if you think they just tick them off.

Best Make-Up and Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel (the consensus pick, but Guardians could and should spoil it).

Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel (consensus pick).

Best Art Direction: The Grand Budapest Hotel (consensus pick).

Best Original Song: “Glory” from Selma. People always want to make noise here - they did so last year betting against “Let It Go” and lost. I wouldn’t go out on a limb here.

Best Original Score: The Theory of Everything, but Grand Budapest is making a move here and it could win it if it just sweeps the techs. But Theory’s soundtrack is sweeping and the key emotional component of the movie.

Best Cinematography: Birdman (consensus pick).

Best Film Editing: Here’s my first limb of the night: I’m switching to Whiplash. It’s the most obviously edited movie and it has a lot of love. The safer pick is Boyhood.

Best Foreign Language Film: Ida. This seemed like a prohibitive favorite but a vocal minority is saying Wild Tales. I wouldn’t go on that limb but do with that info what you will.

Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour. It’s won everything. And yet, many correctly point out that important documentaries have lost to feel good ones since they opened up voting to the entire membership. So I suppose Finding Vivian Maier could be this year’s Searching for Sugarman. I’m sticking with Ed Snowden.

Best Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2 (consensus pick).

Best Live Action Short: The Phone Call. I may switch this in my BOP predictions to Boogalo and Graham, as it has the pulling of the heartstrings component.

Best Animated Short: I can’t stop wavering between sticking with the Disney train (Feast) and switching to the emotional/artsy one (The Dam Keeper). Last year, switching would have been a good idea. But I’m sticking with Disney because Feast has the heartstring element that last year’s Get a Horse! did not have.

Best Documentary Short: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press One (consensus pick, but I can see Joanna or Our Curse).

Best Original Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel (but Birdman is a close second if it’s really a Best Picture frontrunner).

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game. This is one of the hardest calls of the night. Whiplash could really surprise here and each passing minute a pundit jumps ship for Whiplash.

Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood, overwhelming consensus).

Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash, overwhelming consensus).

Best Actress: Julianne Moore (Still Alice, overwhelming consensus).

Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything). I don’t know what to say. It feels like Keaton should win, particularly if Birdman is going to win Picture. I just can’t bring myself to go against the stats.

Best Director: Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman). If there is going to be a split and some recognition of Boyhood in a major category, this appears ripe for the taking for Linklater’s extraordinary achievement. Still, most of those predicting a split are saying Boyhood for Picture and Birdman for director. Trying to predict a split can lead to two categories wrong, so I’m marking Birdman for both.

Best Picture: Birdman.

What’s wrong with this picture? I’m predicting Birdman to win Picture, Director, and Cinematography, but somehow lose Actor and Screenplay. That feels off and it seems wrong. But I suppose a three Oscar win for Birdman does make sense in a close year - Argo and Crash did it in their respective narrow races.

So take that for what it’s worth. I’m also picking Grand Budapest to win anywhere between four and five Oscars, and Whiplash as many as four. If my predictions pan out, in fact, all eight of the Best Picture nominees will win at least one Oscar. That wouldn’t be a bad outcome overall.

But I still see a Boyhood win as an absolute stunner: Birdman has all the guild support. If anything, I have a feeling Boyhood could surprise in Director. It’s making more and more sense: it’s a close race, almost a tie, like last year Gravity vs. 12 Years a Slave, so why not give Picture to one and Director to the other? The problem is I can’t figure out which one goes to which, so at least you’ll get one right if there is a split and you pick the same for both.

That’s all folks. Enjoy the Oscars!