Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
April 22, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Matthew Huntley: Just like Paul Blart 2: Mall Cop 2's, this is an impressive opening weekend figure, but even more-so given how cheap it was to make this movie (it reportedly carries a production budget of just $1 million). Unfriended's surprisingly strong reviews and peculiar presentation may even allow it to escape the fate most horror movies face as far as huge weekend drop-offs, but if not, it's already shown a profit and, probably as we speak, a script is being written (or this one's is being copied) for Unfriended 2: [insert cheesy subtitle here]. In fact, the script for the sequel was probably already given the green light as early as Friday night (after the movie's opening day was approximately six times its production cost).
Edwin Davies: This is a significant win for all involved. As Matthew said, the cost for Unfriended was tiny even by horror standards, and even if it cratered and ended up with a terrible 2.0, it'd still make 30 times its budget. This seems to be a combination of a lack of horror films in recent weeks other than It Follows, which is a less mainstream offering; the strong reviews; and the uniqueness of its premise, which would probably have appealed both to young audiences who use Skype and social media to communicate all the time, and to horror fans interested in seeing someone do something interesting with the genre. Whatever the cause, this is another success for Blumhouse, a company which has become incredibly savvy when it comes to turning low-budget horror into significant profits.
Jason Barney: Unfriended could be a horror film with some decent legs, so despite the numbers being CRAZY good already, I think the big story here is what the earning potential of this one is long term. The horror genre is already one that skews younger, but I think as the buzz about this film spreads, the holds are going to be pretty nice. There is something to be said for a horror film that has specifically targeted a social aspect of youngster’s lives. My guess is Unfriended does not suffer through the normal horror drops. It will be substantial, but it won’t be anywhere close to the “bad” horror films which come out all too often.
On this one, you have to give Universal credit. Every studio is willing to invest in cheap horror films these days, and the market gives us one every several weeks. However, you wonder if the genre is changing a bit, and you wonder if more attractive scary stories are on the horizon. I know that sounds totally weird, but with the success of The Purge, The Paranormal Activity series, The Conjuring…you have to wonder if studios are starting to see money growing on trees within the horror genre. How could they not? It Follows was made for $2 million dollars and it has pulled in over $14 million. Unfriended is going to do better than that. It was put together for $1 million, and in its first weekend it has brought in $16 million. Those are outstanding numbers. Studios have to look at some of the marquee franchises like Star Trek, Terminator, Spiderman, etc, and wonder if investing $200 million or more is as smart as investing in smaller projects like Unfriended and It Follows. It sounds crazy, but which was the better investment? The Amazing Spider-Man 2 or Unfriended?
Ryan Kyle: This is a major win for the studio. In fact, any number would be a major win with how dirt cheap the production budget is. I saw this movie and was really impressed by the story, acting, and over-all style, and the strong reviews matched my sentiments. While It Follows was a genre-throwback, Unfriended (like Paranormal Activity) propels the genre of horror, for better or for worse, with its computer screen presentation. I am unsure how strong the legs will be given that it skews younger and I don't see older folks being swayed by the positive reviews for a film that is essentially a Skype call, but it's all pure profit at this point for Universal, who has had an incredible spring and a very strong summer slate around the corner.
Kim Hollis: Monkey Kingdom, which is not an awesome kung fu movie but rather a Disneynature documentary, earned $4.6 million this weekend. What do you think of this result?
Edwin Davies: This is nearly identical to the amount that Bears earned on the same weekend last year, and only half of what Chimpanzee earned in 2012. To me, that says that the Disneynature strand has more or less settled in to the range that ensures that the films will never break out, but they'll never out and out flop because they're pretty cheap to produce, and they're more a way of enhancing Disney's image by associating them with environmental issues. Disney probably had pretty modest expectations for this one, and if the final falls in the same $15-20 million range these films usually end up with, that will probably justify putting out another documentary like this over the same weekend next year.
Jason Barney: The budget numbers for Monkey Kingdom are difficult to come by, but at this point in time Disney knows how much money to put behind these projects, and they know what the cost benefit numbers are. I do find it sad that even though Disney chooses to put these out there once a year, they don’t make much money against big animation, etc. This market place is the perfect example - no real big openers, no real kids' competition except Home, which has been out for several weeks, and a “real” project like this still only brings in relatively small amounts of cash. Not to be pessimistic, but perhaps the lack of support for this film is a statement about where a good deal of our entertainment values currently stand.
Felix Quinonez: These disney nature documentaries seem a little superfluous to me. But I guess they're making enough money. And if the opening of the last one was fine and this one pretty much matched it, then it should be in good shape. I guess.
Michael Lynderey: These Disneynature films are incorrigible! They're like Saw sequels, with a slightly more consistent gross (and a higher body count). I wonder how long they'll keep releasing them consecutively like this? Which year will be the first to be Disneynature-less? If anyone wants to take any bets, I'll say 2018, but something tells me I should have gone for the 2020s.
Ryan Kyle: I am a bit surprised this didn't open a bit higher since the documentary grosses seemed to be swayed by the subject matter, but for what is essentially a reissue of footage from the documentary "Earth," this result is a win. Paul Blart, sadly, might have stole away a million or two with it's stronger than expected performance. It seems as if $5 million is the ceiling for these films, but I guess Disney is happy with the result if they keep rolling these out year after year.