Monday Morning Quarterback Part III
By BOP Staff
May 7, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Jason Barney: I think there are miles of distinction between peaking at the box office and "regaining" momentum for the franchise. Let's keep things in perspective. The assertion that the franchise has taken a step back is a very specific nit-pick. It just did better than every other film that has been released but one. I think the franchise's momentum is strong.
Another point that I would like to make is about the potential future of this film, what it is going to do over the next several weeks. It will be compared to the original, rightly so. Taking those outstanding numbers into account….those only achieved once numbers is just fine with me. In the Monday to Thursday portion of Avengers first week three years ago, it averaged $15 million each day. We should see similar business here. That means on the low end, Age of Ultron will be approaching $230 million or so going into weekend two. Let’s assume a greater than 50% drop next weekend…give it just $85 million in frame two. Ah, okay… does that make the point?
And over the course of Ultron’s time in theaters, I think the discussion is moot as to whether it matches the original domestically. It will or it won’t. The numbers will still be massive. I think the real story will be Age of Ultron’s expansion of the product overseas. That is the real growth market.
Huge. Absolutely Huge.
Edwin Davies: Domestically? Yes. The Avengers was the absolute peak, because it was this special thing that no one had ever seen before, and so all these superhero crossovers to come will just be attempts to recreate a lightning in a bottle moment. That doesn't mean that the franchise as a whole is in decline, though. I'd expect to see the third Captain America movie do better than the second one, possibly even cracking the $300 million bar domestically, and for Guardians of the Galaxy 2 to be massive when it hits theaters in 2017. I'm not sure if any of the films in Phase Three will become phenomenons in the way that The Avengers did, but Marvel has created an ecosystem for themselves in which all their films support and bolster each other, and the audience loyalty and goodwill from the last seven years is going to go a long way to ensuring that their slate of future films do pretty well.
Internationally, these films will continue to grow and grow.
Felix Quinonez: I totally agree with Jason. The original Avengers will most likely be the high mark (domestically) but the franchise is in perfectly good shape. It doesn't need to break the box office records every time to be considered a success.
Kim Hollis: I'm wondering if they've peaked, myself. Ant-Man and other lesser characters have the potential to damage the Marvel brand (although to be fair, I would have said the same thing about Guardians of the Galaxy). I really wonder how much the audience is going to enjoy the Civil War storyline that will evolve with Captain America. Given that Iron Man is (and should be) an audience favorite, the direction his character goes is not one that people are going to like. I think we saw signs that the story is headed that way in Age of Ultron, so it will be very interesting to see audience response to Captain America 3.
Michael Lynderey: I think there's a chance they've peaked. I'm not sure any movie can open with $207 million for a while, although I could be very wrong. Captain America: Civil War, a de facto Avengers film (most of them are back), will likely open at around $150 million. But an issue for the next two official Avengers films is that much of the superhero line-up is going to be very different than what it is today. Popular characters like Captain America and Iron Man may not be around, although, on the other hand, those films will almost certainly have a massive asset: Spider-Man. If he's a major part of both of the back-to-back Avengers films, as I expect he will be, that could change the film's performance in radical ways.
We shall see.
Ryan Kyle: Michael raises a great point. I think the momentum is just fine. What will determine if the future Avengers films will top the $207M opening weekend benchmark is how well received the Phase 3 characters are and which ones are incorporated into the "Civil War"-plot. The original Avengers was a special film, because it did something that was never done before in having so many famed characters crossover into one movie. If you add some new blood into the Avengers that has meaning to it (Spider-Man, Wolverine, Guardians of the Galaxy), then maybe that record can be topped once again.
David Mumpower: My vote is that they haven't peaked. It's not because I'm particularly jazzed about Black Panther or Captain Marvel, either. In fact, I'm openly scoffing at Ant-Man, which I cannot believe they're playing straight rather than as a goofy comedy. What I see as its primary advantage moving forward is that there are better stories in the offing. Ryan alludes to Civil War, which is the Batman Vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice premise, only without the presumed swerve where they become allies. Captain America and Iron Man are about to fight, and that will sell a lot of tickets. Then, Marvel follows that up with an epic two-film Avengers saga that concludes almost 20 movies worth of stories. Those three projects have much more commercial premises, and I see them as regaining any momentum temporarily lost by Age of Ultron. I do think it's funny that a much less successful film, Guardians of the Galaxy, will be remembered as a much bigger hit than Avengers 2, though.
Max Braden: I think the ensemble format may have grown to big for its own good. Too many characters dividing up screen time doesn't offer much opportunity for depth. I do think the solo movies will continue to grow, especially Captain America's next installment. Also I think there will be strong interest in the first-timer characters like Ant-Man, Doctor Strange, and Black Panther. The individual movies allow audiences to experience more of the same and something new at the same time. I just with there would be even more, with the Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. TV characters moving into the theatrical releases.
Kim Hollis: What did you think of Avengers: Age of Ultron?
Jason Barney: I thought it was good, but not fantastic. There were a couple of wrinkles as far as Ultron's ability to carry the film as the villain, as well as some storytelling and spacing issues near the end of the film.
For me, one of the highlights was the expansion of the character of Hawkeye. Depending on how in depth you go with the comics, his transition from the Avengers to Avengers West Coast is part of the storyline. I don't remember everything about those pages years ago, but seeing him step forward in a leadership role was really nice.
Edwin Davies: I really enjoyed parts of it while finding the whole a little unsatisfying. The parts I loved were the times when the film slowed down a little bit and let the cast bounce off of each other with that snappy Joss Whedon dialogue, such as their post-party Mjolnir game or that part in the middle where it became The Big Chill, as well as the Hulk-Hulkbuster fight, where the conflict was relatively pared down and focused on a few characters.
The rest of the time, it felt like Whedon was constrained by his need to meet the obligations of telling a story which is setting up a whole bunch of other stories, and I rolled my eyes every time they stopped the film to talk about Infinity Stones. That kind of setup felt really awkward to me, and suggested that everyone's minds were somewhere else, rather than focusing on the story at hand. I felt like it could have stood to be 20 minutes longer, if only to let the parts of the film that were hemmed in by all the franchise stuff to breathe more.
Felix Quinonez: I hate to say it but I was really disappointed. I was legitimately sad on the train ride home. Some stranger actually told me to "cheer up." Don't get me wrong, there were very enjoyable parts but the movie, as a whole, was a let down. I don't want to get into spoilers but I almost felt like they took the least interesting part of the first movie, (the Manhattan invasion) and turned it into two and a half hours. I was actually bored and yawned a few times. That's not supposed to happen during an Avengers movie.
Michael Lynderey: I liked it far better than the first film. Vast improvement! I disliked The Avengers for several reasons, including the re-use of Thor's milquetoast villain, Loki (whose idea was it to bring the same bad guy back two summers in a row? That makes no sense!), the "can't-touch-this" above-it-all arrogance of most of the heroes, in particular but not limited to Iron Man, Black Widow, and Nick Fury, and the story, which was illogical (if you're trying to conquer Earth, why bring the Avengers together?), too full of characters bickering with each other, and ended with what looked like a direct lift from the climax of Transformers 3 (although it likely wasn't intentional). The fact that people regularly describe The Avengers as one of the greatest superhero movies of all time is baffling to me.
Age of Ultron had a better villain and focused on more likable characters (Hawkeye), while somewhat humanizing others (Black Widow), minimizing Nick Fury's role and completely eliminating Loki's (though since he's on the throne of Asgard, he'll regrettably be back). It's solid summer entertainment, without many of the pretensions of the first movie.
Avengers 3 should open with Thanos planning his assault on the earth surrounded by a mass army and a map of the galaxy with an "attack here" arrow pointing at the earth. At that moment, the 'real' villain of the film should arrive and single-handedly eliminate Thanos and his entire army before going on to face The Avengers. Any other use of Thanos would be underwhelming at this point.
Kim Hollis: Although I didn't enjoy this sequel as much as the original, I still had a lot of fun with Age of Ultron. The film did a good job of setting up the natural separation and splintering that would occur in such a group of talented/super-powered individuals, most of whom are probably extreme Type A personalities. The villain was interesting and layered, and James Spader was an outstanding choice to voice the character. There's a nice surprise later in the film that isn't given away by trailers or marketing.
The high points of the film include the Mjolnir scene for sure, but I also very much enjoyed the exploration of Natasha Romanoff's character. We learn a lot more about her life and motivations, and her interplay with the Hulk is really lovely. The twins are also a nice addition, though we're getting close to veering into "too many characters" territory.
As for negatives, I really could have done without the focus on Hawkeye, as I think he's a pretty boring, bland character who isn't really helped much by Jeremy Renner's boring, bland portrayal. There is assuredly a more interesting way to have the audience relate to the most "everyman" character of the bunch. There's also a disjointedness to the film, and it lacks the special moments that made the first Avengers such a delight.
Even with those quibbles, it's still a fun ride of a film.