Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
May 6, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Jason Barney: I don’t think the Rotten Tomatoes rating should be a concern, as this is a film worth seeing. It may not be as high as the first, but I took my son to see it on Friday night. He loved it and I enjoyed it. And this is part of my amazement with just exactly what Disney and Marvel are able to pull off here. This was not a second film where the creative team decided to hold off the major villain to peak interest in fans. There was no Khan or Joker. Marvel threw out a villain, Ultron, whom none of us had ever really heard of, and they were able to grab the second largest opening of all time. People are still very much in love with these characters, and having them together in one film is a treat. The primary reason why it didn’t reach $207 million is perhaps….$207 million is hard to reach?
Edwin Davies: Personally, I think my mistake in predicting the trajectory of the opening weekend was built on the assumption that the momentum that saw Iron Man 3, Thor: The Dark World and Captain America: The Winter Soldier open to much bigger numbers post-Avengers would create a kind of feedback loop where the next Avengers film's success would be boosted by all the films which benefitted from the first Avengers. While the success of those films probably did a lot to stoke the flames for Age of Ultron and helped ensure it would open to a huge number, I think they also made it seem a little less special. All three of those films had plots that revolved around a force trying to take over the world, and all three of them basically said that the Avengers individually can handle themselves pretty well. That makes the idea of a team-up a lot less impressive because they're saving the world in every movie. Plus the novelty of seeing these characters on screen together was lost after the first film, and in the little moments in the subsequent films where one or more of the team showed up for a scene or two. Those moments were fun at the time, but I think they probably made Age of Ultron feel like less of an event than the first one.
Maybe the bigger problem was the sense that this was just a stepping stone on the way to an even bigger conflict in the next movie. The first Avengers felt like a pretty definitive endpoint to the version of the MCU that existed before it. Since we know that Marvel has their next five years of movies planned out, this felt less like a finale and more like the halfway point.
Felix Quinonez: Actually we didn't all predict that Age of Ultron would beat its predecessor. I don't know if I was the only one who said it. But I specifically said that I found it hard to believe that it could top the opening of the first one. I really think that the novelty of the first movie played at least some part in its huge opening. And this time around, it didn't have that boost so it couldn't break the $200 million mark. Regardless, it's still huge and Marvel is still on top of the world.
Michael Lynderey: I think that even the box office that this year alone produced American Sniper, Spongebob 2, and Furious 7, has its limits. The Avengers is a beloved film that was followed up by another beloved film (Captain America: The Winter Soldier). Using the usual rules of box office, those films should have bought the sequel's early meal tickets so much so that Avengers 2 should have opened bigger. There's probably that bit of weariness with the material we're seeing, but it's not serious just yet.
Ryan Kyle: For the most part, the rule is that the sequel opens up bigger than the original so I operated my prediction under that rule. However, it seems as if the glass ceiling was reached with the original. I think for the super fans of the franchise, the okay consensus around the film's quality prevented multiple-viewings on opening weekend which cost a couple million and the Derby/Fight/NBA sports-filled Saturday might have shaved off some dollars as well, but that is just pennies in the big picture of things.
Kim Hollis: Although I predicted Age of Ultron would beat its predecessor's opening weekend, I mentioned a number of reasons for a possible decline. I do wonder how much the controversies surrounding Black Widow impacted the audience, albeit a small portion of it. Between Marvel and Disney ignoring her for the toys and so forth and Chris Evans and Jeremy Renner calling the character a slut, the backlash seems to be significant. And there are certainly plenty of people who want to tear the movie down. I think sports in no way contributed to the decrease in audience, by the way. The fight was too late, and if people wanted to get out and see the film, there was ample opportunity.
David Mumpower: Upon reflection, what I think hurts Ultron the most is the advertising campaign. I disagree about the film not having a great villain. I actually think James Spader nailed the role as much as Loki if not more. The problem is more that Disney didn't seem to know what to do with this film. The marketing is all over the place, even now. In fact, I have this criticism of all of their movies since The Avengers, even Guardians of the Galaxy, which is an unpopular opinion, I know. Captain America: Winter Soldier was an absolute masterpiece and while it almost won its year of release, I feel like a lot of money was left on the table. Conversely, Guardians was a best case box office performance (light years beyond that, really), but I still struggle to quantify why. And now we have Age of Ultron selling...what exactly? If I'm a Disney executive right now, I'm re-evaluating how we handle our advertising.
Max Braden: For me, the reason I didn't go see it was actually because I thought everyone else was going to see it. I didn't want to fight the madhouse to get a good seat on time and decided to go another day. I do think the Saturday sports had a significant effect on the numbers. The audiences may not directly overlap, but three million viewers watching the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight on Saturday night amounts to a lot of box office millions in potential revenue lost.