Monday Morning Quarterback Part III
By BOP Staff
June 18, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: They're all fantastic results when compared to budget, with Fifty Shades and Pitch Perfect being particularly strong in that regard since Universal spent only $69 million on both of them and they've so far earned $828.7 million worldwide. That's a hell of a return on investment, and they've probably seen more pure profit from them than they've made on the more expensive Furious 7. That shouldn't take away from what a runaway success that film has been, however, or how impressive it is that Jurassic World, the fourth film in a franchise that everyone thought was completely done broke the global opening weekend record. The only one that strikes me as a disappointment is Fifty Shades, but only because the film was so bad that it used up all its juice in one weekend. Had it been a better film, it could have easily earned more than $200 million domestically, but instead it stuttered.
Of the two forthcoming films, Minions is the one that seems most likely to become a huge smash, though it might struggle to reach the heights of Despicable Me 2 since spin-offs are a dicey proposition. Ted 2 could go either way: it could open huge and then taper off if the quality isn't there, much as happened to the second Hangover film, or it could become the highest grossing R-rated comedy of all time. Either way, I'd be surprised if either of them stops Universal's hot streak.
Jason Barney: Universal's hot streak is memorable and is going to be VERY profitable for them. All of these investments are turning into great money makers. There current success is going to be able to fund a lot of future projects. The four films mentioned above contributed to one of the hottest starts to a movie year ever....and now Jurassic World is going to elevate a lagging summer. They are red hot.
Felix Quinonez: I think Ted 2 will be really big but ultimately fall short of the first one in its total gross. But I think Minions is a bit of a wild card. Spin offs don't usually match the main franchise films. But I think it will preform similarly to Puss in Boots and fall short of $200 million domestically.
Ben Gruchow: This is the kind of year I've been hoping Universal would have for a long while. I've really been hoping for karmic justice ever since the studio took a gamble 10 years ago on Serenity and watched it disappoint at the box office. Ahh, bitter youth.
All four of these films have been extremely impressive. In order of how impressive they've been, I'd rank Fifty Shades of Grey last (although $166 million is impressive for a $40 million investment, the flameout has been even more pronounced, and I think the Fifty Shades franchise is going to disappear into the same dark hole the Twilight franchise fell into the moment its final film comes and goes), followed by Pitch Perfect 2, then Jurassic World, with Furious 7 at the top of the heap; the death of a lead actor could account for an opening 50 percent over the previous film in a franchise, but not a 50-percent-bigger opening tied to the same opening-to-total multiplier and a truly jaw-dropping international total, for the seventh film in a franchise. I don't know what can account for that, other than sorcery. And if there were any doubts about this being Universal's year after Furious 7, Jurassic World just crushed them.
If social media and trailer reactions are anything to go off of (and history suggests that it is), Minions is going to be massive. With spinoffs, it's a dice-roll as far as whether or not they underperform or perform to expectations; I'm having trouble thinking of a case where a spinoff equaled its parent franchise. Here, I think there's a chance that Minions may actually catch up to Despicable Me 2, although it's more likely that it falls somewhere in between the two films. With Ted 2, I'm more ambivalent. Ted was a word-of-mouth success, and Ted 2 has the same writer/director combo, but A Million Ways to Die in the West showed that Seth McFarlane's involvement doesn't necessarily equate to quality or box-office appeal. The success of both films beyond a certain baseline of earnings depends, I think, on reviews.
Ryan Kyle: Every single one of these four titles we have written glowingly about and are all major successes with sequels to all of them already in the pipeline. I'm not sure how anyone can call Fifty Shades disappointing when a romance film about S&M makes $570 million worldwide off of a $40 million budget. Universal is having an unbelievable run that puts their studio in a great position to take some more risks with all of the cash they have raked in.
While Minions is a spin-off, unlike Puss-in-Boots, the Minions are the most loved part of the Despicable Me movies and always the forefront of the marketing campaigns. I think it will perform much more like a sequel and wind up somewhere between the first and second film ($300 million?). Ted 2 will be hurt a bit by the mass appeal of Jurassic World, which could conceivably still be at the top of the box office when it opens. Ted has a lot of love behind it and I think the sequel will open big, given that there hasn't been a giant comedy this summer yet with Spy not being a heavy-hitter, but will taper off much faster.
Universal still has a stocked summer, though, with Trainwreck en route to make it into the $100 million club and Straight Outta Compton looks like it can also make a serious dent.
Come September, things look a bit shakier with really no surefire hits through the New Year, although interesting pics like Steve Jobs, Crimson Peak, By the Sea, and Everest can buoy things and Sisters looks like it can pack a punch.
Kim Hollis: I think everyone's lavished enough superlatives on Universal for their amazing year, so I'll just skip ahead to Minions and Ted 2. I think most of us are really underselling Minions. I mean, Gru and his daughters are nice and all, but people go see Despicable Me for the Minions. They will go see the Minions again. The marketing has absolutely killed and there's no way this is a mild success like Puss in Boots. It will be huge.
I wasn't really sure about Ted 2, but I think the ads and trailers have been pretty great (and I say that as someone not always inclined to like Seth McFarlane's stuff). I don't think it's going to reach the heights of the first film, but it will be a solid performer.
David Mumpower: I'll add one more note about Universal. That's one of the finest four-film combos I can ever recall in terms of return on investment. What they've accomplished in less than six months is truly historic. I agree with everyone that there is a clear upper and lower tier, as well. 50 Shades of Grey is a blockbuster hit that also suffers due to the opportunity cost of being a lousy movie that left fans disappointed. Pitch Perfect 2 is a spectacular success in every manner possible, and the only reason why it's downgraded is because we're comparing it to two films that will end being among the top six global box office performers of all-time. As for Jurassic World versus Furious 7, I'm cheating here, because I'm answering after everybody else. I know from the daily numbers for Wednesday that it's pacing ahead of The Avengers. Any film that does that is the greatest success story.
Kim Hollis: Jurassic World just became the first film to earn half a billion dollars in a weekend. Do you think that this $511.8 million global opening weekend record stands until Star Wars arrives in December?
Edwin Davies: It depends on whether Star Wars opens in China. A huge chunk of Jurassic World's success this weekend was driven by a huge opening in China, and currently no Chinese release in planned for Star Wars. If that changes, it could overtake Jurassic World if audiences aren't too gun-shy after the prequels (and if opening around Christmas doesn't deflate the opening too much), but I'm not sure it would be able to do it without China.
Felix Quinonez: I think that record will stand even after Star Wars opens. It's only been 10 years since Revenge of the Sith and the prequels must have at least turned some people off. I mean it won't stop me from seeing the new one but I imagine that at least a portion of the target audience is sitting on the fence for the new one. I guess the reviews will also play a role in that factor.
Ben Gruchow: I think it stands past Star Wars; Edwin hits the nail on the head. The combination of the Christmas opening, the reputation hit the brand has taken with the prequels, and especially the lack of an opening in China are all liabilities to one degree or another. I'd add one more potential liability to the list: those who don't know who J.J. Abrams is aren't necessarily going to understand why the new movie is likely to be any different from the prequels, and the prequels have a toxic reputation even among those who aren't intimately familiar with the Star Wars franchise. Those who do know who J.J. Abrams is aren't necessarily going to trust him wholeheartedly following a decade and a half of mystery-box approaches to his franchise ventures (see: Alias, Lost, M:I 3, Fringe, Star Trek, etc). Almost none of his work is bad, but all of them engendered to one degree or another a commitment to a multi-installment story; I've given my thoughts on audience feelings toward multi-installment franchises and where they might be heading. The Force Awakens is going to be big, but I don't think it's going to take down this record.
David Mumpower: I understand the arguments being made. They're sound and reasonable. I do, however, disagree. I'm shaving with Occam's Razor here. Even though I could care less about it, this is Star Wars we're talking about, and everybody knows George Lucas isn't involved. We've strangely reached a point where the creator of this beloved franchise is cheered for leaving. Imagine if the same thing occurred with George RR Martin and Game of Thrones or JK Rowling with Harry Potter. It's that odd a turn of events yet it's unquestionably true.
With a clean slate and a fresh start, Star Wars immediately becomes what it was postured to be with the prequels. It's again the apex predator of cinema. Yes, I even include dinosaurs in that. While the China concern is a huge one, I expect a deal to get brokered simply because the financials dictate it. As we speak, the first six films are playing for the first time in China at the Shanghai International Film Festival. I don't think they take that step unless they're trying to build the audience for The Force Awakens. What's interesting to me about Star Wars is that it could feasibly perform in the inverse from most recent release. Its first week in theaters in North America could feasibly be its best in the world. It'll behave like Avatar, with every day of box office functioning as another massive Friday-esque performance. I don't expect Star Wars 7 to break the domestic record due to holiday deflation, but I think its global take over its first three *and* seven days will surpass Jurassic World.