Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
June 24, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Matthew Huntley: I have a feeling Minions will open higher than Inside Out because it has the advantage of the July 4th weekend and because, just like Disney/Pixar, the "Despicable Me" brand is now trusted by so many families. Plus, whenever any trailer for Minions has played over the past year, both kids and adults alike have cracked up, so I think every demographic is excited about it.
Now whether or not the movie shows the same legs as Despicable Me 2, or the same strong ones that Inside Out no doubt will, will be based on its quality and whether or not it actually tell a worthwhile story or just be about Minions being Minions, which could grow old very fast. Either way, I think Inside Out and Minions will be nearly neck and neck throughout the summer, both domestically and internationally, but I think the former may win out because it got an earlier start. Great question!
Felix Quinonez: I can't imagine Minions coming close to Inside Out. The characters are cute and entertaining but seem better in small doses. I think it will see a steep drop from the Despicable Me films. I see it making about $150 million domestically.
Ben Gruchow: I see Minions opening higher and closing lower than Inside Out, although it's honestly too early to tell what kind of final figure we're looking at for either film; I expect Inside Out to hold very well next weekend. The outlook for Minions reminds me a little of the outlook for Jurassic World, actually; there was a forecast that kept getting revised upward as the release date approached. I would've expected a domestic total around $250 million or so at the beginning of May; now I'm thinking more like $300-$315 million, with an opening approaching $100 million. Having watched the trailer for the first time a few days ago, I have to say that it doesn't look nearly as bad as I was thinking it'd be.
Jason Barney: I think the main factor in the Minions release is going to be quality. There is no doubt in my mind it is going to open big, but what exactly that number is....we are still too far out. I honestly don't think it is going to skew on the lower side because it has a wonderful opening weekend. Things will be busy during that time period, there are five wide releases just in a couple of days, but Minions will grab the younger crowds. However, quality will remain the main factor in the equation of just how large it opens. If its Rotten Tomatoes rating is anywhere near Inside out, you will see a bigger opening than we just witnessed.
Edwin Davies: I agree with Ben that it will open higher, because the Despicable Me films are ridiculously popular and the Minions are the most ridiculously popular part of those films, but that its prospects from there depend on how good it is. If it's terrible, or doesn't have much to offer adults, I could see parents being unwilling to sit through it multiple times, which could hurt the film's legs, as opposed to Pixar's films, which have a wider appeal.
Michael Lynderey: Minions won't be as big. For a long time now, I had sort of thought Minions had a chance to be the second biggest movie of the summer (after Avengers: Age of Ultron, of course), but many events have now changed this opinion. The film seems to be getting pretty good reviews, and I expect it'll cross the $200 million mark. It could be the biggest movie of the remainder of the summer, but after Jurassic World and Inside Out it won't loom quite as large.
Kim Hollis: Underestimate Minions at your peril. I’ve seen numerous trailers for this film and it has received an uproarious response every single time. I expect it to open huge and I won’t be surprised if it out-grosses Inside Out both domestically and internationally. It’s already off to a pretty fast start in just a few overseas territories. Its reviews are not in the ballpark of what Inside Out has received, but I’m not sure reviews really matter in the case of the Minions.
Kim Hollis: Sundance favorite Dope debuted this weekend with $6.1 million. What do you think of this result?
Felix Quinonez: I think it is a good but not great opening. However I believe the reviews and strong word-of-mouth should help it over the next few weeks. It still has a chance to make a profit.
Ben Gruchow: I think the movie's marketing let it down a little bit; when I first saw the trailer, it seemed like several genres jammed into one movie (with the operative word being "jammed"), and it didn't stick with me in the way the most well-made promo spots do. Once I saw the Tomatometer hit 90% (and stay there), my impression of the movie turned around, but I don't think I'm in the majority there. This kind of opening, plus the movie's subject matter, means that the meter really needed to be about seven or eight percent higher to effect a turnaround in the movie's financial status. I think it'll hold well and end up with a respectable final tally, but I don't see a breakout.
The memory of the movie's trailer is starting to come back to me now, and I want to go see it.
Jason Barney: I think this is a solid enough opening as word of mouth will help this film stick around for a little while. Could it have opened higher? Yes, but the problem for Dope this weekend was the availability of box office dollars to go around. You had the top two films earning $200 million dollars this weekend. Spy fell only 33 percent and even San Andreas dropped only 24 percent. Even the films below it in the top ten saw drops of less than 50% which is remarkable.
Word-of-mouth will get around. It will make an eventual profit.
Edwin Davies: This is fine, but I can't help but think that the release strategy was a little misguided. The studio clearly had a lot of confidence in Dope's capacity to break out, but they probably would have benefited from a limited release that built up hype and word-of-mouth before going wide. Sundance isn't as big of a name festival as it was in the '90s, so being a hit there means relatively little to most audiences. Had they opened it small then expanded, the film could have built up anticipation, whereas here it seemed to burn off demand for it pretty quickly.
Michael Lynderey: It should be interesting to see how Dope does compared to the other big Sundance teen movie that's out now, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl. Dope went wide right away, to my surprise (thus costing June the title of the month with the least amount of wide releases this year). Earl and co., on the other hand, are having a steady rollout like The Perks of Being a Wallflower or The Spectacular Now. Dope might have okay legs, but films with urban appeal often drop quickly. Earl will likely stick around longer, but it might not reach $10 million, which Dope is a lock for. So oddly, a wide release may have been the wiser choice.
Kim Hollis: Like Edwin, I’m puzzled by the release strategy for Dope. I feel like it would have had significantly more success had buzz been allowed to build with a platform release. Instead, it feels like they’ve squandered their opportunity, because with other big stories in the box office world, Dope is only an afterthought. I won’t be surprised if it struggles moving forward despite positive reviews and word-of-mouth.