Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
July 14, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Ben Gruchow: The impression varies depending on whether we're looking at it in the context of a sequel or a spinoff. As a sequel, it's a very good result; the multiplier is a little on the low end, and the Friday-to-Saturday decline points to fan rush. Still, it would require a much heftier decline to avoid being the highest-grossing chapter of the whole “Despicable” franchise.
As a spinoff, this is phenomenal; Minions is the new benchmark for the practice, without question. At this point, I'm wondering when the people at Universal are going to schedule the installation of the gold statues and water fountains in all of the bathrooms.
Jason Barney: There is no other way to spin this except that it is an exceptional opening....REALLY good. I can remember when Universal announced the Minions were going to be the focus of a feature film, and I remember the collective groan of critics/pundits. It wasn't quite across the board, but I remember a pretty vocal chorus questioning the move.
Universal has to be laughing now, as this is a huge opening and it continues their red hot year. To put this in context....they spent $75 million and almost doubled that take in the United States in one weekend. While the film may not be as good as the Despicable Me offerings, this is going to be a money maker and it is going to be pretty well received throughout July. Even with Inside Out, there is still an absence of market share for younger kids. I would expect the holds to be terrific and Universal's bank accounts to burst at some point.
Matthew Huntley: This is (more) sensational news for Universal, who now commands a whopping 26% of the year's total box-office, and the Despicable Me franchise in general. Not only does it ensure another sequel in the main series but also likely another one featuring just the Minions alone. The possibilities, including those for toys, games, attractions, etc., now seem endless, and these characters will surely become a modern family/pop-culture symbol for years to come, similar to Disney/Pixar's Cars (if they haven't already). Unfortunately, though, just like Cars, Minions as a movie leaves something to be desired in the story/quality departments and it comes off as sort of empty and unfulfilling compared Despicable Me (1 and 2). That likely won't matter as far as this becoming a major moneymaker for the studio (it has its eyes set on $1 billion worldwide), but hopefully the mixed reviews will light a fire under the storytellers and prompt them to get more creative with the plots and characters instead of just delivering slapstick comedy. It's not a bad movie, mind you, but it's also not a very good one. Still, I imagine the only sound racing through the Universal executives' heads at the moment is, "Cha-ching!"
Edwin Davies: This is pretty amazing. Not only is it nearly record breaking for an animated film, but it's also covered the film's production budget in the space of three days. That's a very good start, and even if the film doesn't hold up as well as its predecessors, both of which earned about four times their opening weekend, this will still end up being wildly profitable for Universal.
Ryan Kyle: I think we can declare that this is an exceptional opening for a foreign language film (with most of the dialogue being Minion-gibberish). I don't think any yellow characters have been slapped on so many pieces of merchandise since The Simpsons fever in the ‘90s. Regardless, if you want to classify the film as a sequel/prequel/spin-off, this is a great start, and the movie has probably already made its money back in terms of the aforementioned licensing deals Universal struck for these little characters. I find it strange why they even cast so many A-listers when they could have saved the budget, because let's face it, nobody bought a ticket here for Jon Hamm or Sandra Bullock. While Disney and WB are banking on superheroes, Universal has proven this summer time after time that you don't need a guy in a cape for a giant opening or to launch a franchise.
Kim Hollis: It's oddly just about what I expected, and yet that doesn't mean the box office for Minions isn't spectacular. It's the second biggest animated opening ever - beating Toy Story 3 is huge. I think it's pretty amazing that we got the #2 and #4 biggest debut weekends for animated films over the past month.
Max Braden: I remember thinking with Despicable Me that I didn't care for Gru, but I'd enjoy a movie with just the Minions. Clearly, that was a widely held position and Universal gave the people what they wanted to see. I don't think it's too much of a surprise that the movie did well, given how the Minions seem to be custom made for kids by speaking amusing gibberish and behaving like the Three Stooges.
Where it's more impressive, though, is in comparison to the Madagascar franchise. In that series the penguins were the sidekicks who steal the show and got their own movie as the fourth entry in the series. While Madagascar 2 and 3 opened better than the first movie of the series (like Despicable Me 2), the Penguins of Madagascar movie opened to less than half of the other sequels and failed to gross as much as its budget. Not only did Minions flip that box office performance, it's the most successful opening for a spinoff movie ever. (Judging those is a little vaguer than sequels, especially in the era of prequels, but I'd say X-Men Origins: Wolverine and Maleficent are the nearest examples.)
Kim Hollis: Do you expect Minions to be the most successful spinoff film for some time, or do you think something on the horizon can surpass it?
Ben Gruchow: I'm racking my brain and trying to think of another example where a spinoff out-grosses its parent film. I can think of a few that come close, but none that actually do it. But for two possibilities, I expect Minions to hold the spinoff gold medal for a long time, and those two possibilities are both subjective as far as whether or not you consider them spinoffs or sequels: Pixar's Finding Dory has most of the original cast returning, but it also switches the main character focus to a supporting character from the first film, which is characteristic of a spinoff. The other one is Star Wars: Rogue One, and its success depends partially on how big The Force Awakens turns out to be and how closely the studio's marketing department is able to tie the anthology film to its parent.
Edwin Davies: I'll agree with Ben and say that the most likely source for a spinoff of this magnitude will probably come from Disney. If the mooted Han Solo or Boba Fett films appear and the success of The Force Awakens increases anticipation for them, then they might have a shot. Or maybe if Disney decide to rush an Olaf spin-off into production, that might be able to capitalize on Frozen Fever, even if it isn't as sharp as it was a year or so ago. Apart from that, though, I'm not sure what could approach it.
Ryan Kyle: I believe that one of the Star Wars spin-offs can come close to reaching Minions mettle, although I don't think it will happen. Minions had a few years to be in the cultural zeitgeist and the iron was struck when the metal was hot. I don't feel as if there are any other characters percolating in the public currently as much as the Minions have been to achieve this level of success. If you consider Suicide Squad a spin-off, then I can see that possibly reaching this height. Otherwise, I think Universal has a solid lock on this achievement for many years to come.
Max Braden: Spinoffs themselves are a pretty small genre, especially for original properties (rather than comic book heroes like the Marvel universe). Other than Puss in Boots, the only one I could come up with is Evan Almighty. I know the hype is pretty strong for the Star Wars spinoffs, but that hype didn't really knock it out of the park for the 1997 anniversary releases of the first Star Wars trilogy. I think the Star Wars films will perform strongly at the box office, but I have trouble imagining that the spinoffs will be able to break $100 million openings. Other than animated and Star Wars projects already in progress, I think a callback that might have a shot would be a Harry Potter spinoff. Maybe a solo-Rock spinoff from GI Joe or the Fast & Furious franchises? It's no wonder that the genre is small, because even when audiences applaud a side character, the idea of trying to sell a movie in that universe without the leading characters is pretty daunting.
Kim Hollis: Han Solo is such a popular character that I could see that movie being a stronger performer, provided that the casting is done well. I'd also honestly not considered the Harry Potter spinoff, Magical Beasts and Where to Find Them. That audience might be so starved for something from that universe that they could push it to a bigger start than Minions just had. Also worth considering is that much of this same audience will have grown up by the time Magical Beasts is released. They will be the key demographic - and they'll be paying full price.