Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
August 4, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Jason Barney: I’d like to take a wide view of this opening and identify something that happened earlier in the summer. Paramount rolled the dice on the Terminator franchise and the result was a lot less than they hoped for. All of the data in today’s market place says producing sequels to popular established franchises is the fastest and easiest way to make money. With Arnold and Terminator they didn’t get the results they wanted and now, once again, the future of that franchise is being called into question.
With this opening of Rogue Nation, Paramount has gotten exactly what they wanted. They will probably get a little more than they expect, actually. The Mission: Impossible movies have a lot going for them and are the definition of what studios need to invest these days for quick, sure money. What helps here is that the installments are usually pretty good, and regardless of what many people continue to say, they have one of the most bankable stars in the business as the main character.
Even if Cruise’s most recent efforts have been mildly successful, Paramount will see a massive profit from Rogue Nation when all is said and done. People can argue that Cruise’s star power is waning, but tell that to the execs at Paramount who are smiling all the way to the bank right now. Edge of Tomorrow and Oblivion were movies worth seeing and could/should have done better. The last time Cruise worked with Paramount, in 2012 on Jack Reacher, the company earned a lot of money. They spent $60 million and when international receipts were totaled, the film brought in $218 million. Rock of Ages is his only pure miss, recently.
Before that you have 2011 and Ghost Protocol, the excellent fourth installment of the franchise. Paramount spent $145 million and worldwide return was almost $700 million. My guess is you will see similar numbers here. Paramount spent about the same money and I wouldn’t be surprised if Rogue Nation approaches or equals the total of Ghost Protocol.
Is Tom Cruise what he once was? No. Duh. Yes, he has Knight and Day on his resume, but Paramount has what it wants with this actor and the Mission: Impossible Franchise. They are already in talks to develop the next one.
Ben Gruchow: I'm of two minds about this, one negative and one positive. On the negative side: because I don't believe for a second that Paramount's forecast was as low as $40 million for this opening until right before the release date, and if you look at tickets sold, this comes in either last or second-to-last among the franchise (depending on whether or not you count the weekday sales between Ghost Protocol's first limited weekend and second wide weekend).
Positive: Ticket sales always decline over time, for everything, and Rogue Nation is a good movie. For what it is, Paramount made a very wise decision in moving this from December 25th, where it likely would've gotten lost among Star Wars, Spectre, Mockingjay 2, In the Heart of the Sea, etc. (even if for no other reason than audience exhaustion), to the end of what turned out to be an incredibly slack July. The budget was kept reasonable, and Jay brings up an excellent point in that the franchise has been fairly decent and consistent as far as quality.
Where does it land from here? This is a little tricky, because the M:I series entries have shown legs and lack of same, and they appeal to multiple audience segments. I think 30-31% as an opening-to-total multiplier would be about the best the release date and current movie-going environment would give, and I'll knock it down a few percent for the critical reception and the fact that that's going to draw in some audiences that otherwise wouldn't go (my dad sent me a text yesterday morning asking me whether he should see Rogue Nation or Mr. Holmes, and he's not generally one to go for the blockbuster in that equation; the fact that he even asked means that the reviews have had an impact). I'm going to choose a path similar to 2004's Bourne Supremacy, and assume a 29 percent opening to total multiplier, which would give us a final domestic total of around $193-195 million.
Ryan Kyle: Even though the opening weekend isn't jaw-dropping in terms of what we have seen this year so far, $56 million is still a win for the film and studio. How many franchises can you name that five films deep still draw grosses in line with peak opening of the sequel without the assistance of a reboot, lead recasting, or a decade-long dormancy? Tom Cruise isn't known for monster openings, with the only films opening higher being M:I-2 and War of the Worlds (those are within spitting distance of M:I-5's opening), but for very well-sized ones followed by leggy performances. With strong word-of-mouth and a barely noticeable Friday-to-Saturday dip, M:I-5 is on course for $200 million domestically, with the lion's share coming from overseas. After a few mixed original results that ranged from flops (Rock of Ages) to respectable (Oblivion, Edge of Tomorrow), Cruise shows that like Denzel Washington, he is one of the few movie stars left that can anchor a picture beyond a $20 million opening.
Comparing it to the studio’s other summer release, Terminator: Genisys, which is also a franchise five films deep, it just goes to show how strong of a franchise Mission: Impossible is.
Edwin Davies: This is a testament to good filmmaking, smart scheduling, and Tom Cruise. Audience loyalty is a very fickle thing that is hard to achieve, harder to maintain, and the Mission: Impossible series has managed to do that, despite nearly blowing it the second time out. The last three films have established the series as one with a reputation for quality blockbuster filmmaking that delivers thrills and insane stunts, something which played out again in the relentless talk about how Cruise really did strap himself on to the side of that plane. They also took advantage of a quiet weekend (or a comparatively quiet one compared to when the film would have originally come out) and got lucky when Ant-Man didn't become a juggernaut so the action fans would have been eager for something new. And then you have Tom Cruise, the closest thing Hollywood has to a Don Draper-sequel pitch man. The man can sell a movie like no one else, and when he has the goods to back that salesmanship up, you get results like this.
Felix Quinonez: It's a great result and shows that the franchise is in great shape. I think people were ready to give it a chance because of the goodwill that Ghost Protocol generated. And the glowing reviews definitely helped put some butts in the seats. I'm very interested to see how it holds up from here. I know the reviews are in line with Ghost Protocol, but I think that movie's legs were helped by the Christmas season. I don't think that $200 million domestically is a sure thing, but it should get close to it. And it might set a new franchise record for overseas gross.
David Mumpower: I echo many of the thoughts here, but I want to take them a step farther. Ryan rightly notes that for all of Tom Cruise's triumphs, he's not an opener relative to how we define the term now. He's the embodiment of a previous box office era where films debuted more modestly than ran longer due to their quality. George Clooney probably best represents that model today, but Cruise himself still carries the flag for that style of cinema. Given those parameters, the actor is claiming one of his best performances ever not just in terms of actual domestic dollars but also international dollars, the latter market being an area where he's always qualified as a trendsetter.
Along those lines, I believe that it's more than just the impeccable quality of the two prior Mission: Impossible films that boosted the box office here. I also think that Edge of Tomorrow, an under-performer domestically, found new life on home video during its Live. Die. Repeat. post-release phase. People watching that film remembered why they always enjoyed Cruise the actor even if they're not so crazy about Cruise the person. He's come back in exactly the way we suggested in a MMQB a few years ago. He picked quality movies that exemplified his talents.