Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
September 2, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Ryan Kyle: This is a pretty good result as it was the best case scenario for the film whose reviews ranged from awful to aggressively mediocre. No Escape grossed in five days double the $5 million production budget, so Owen Wilson and Pierce Brosnan should probably be checking their mailboxes tomorrow for their backend checks. Following a cume nearly identical to Brosnan's The November Man released the same frame last year, a $25 million-range finish seems likely for No Escape as well. Released in a very aggressive 3,355 theaters, the most locations out of any film currently playing, profitability might not be found until VOD as the marketing costs were slightly higher for the film compared to The November Man's more typical screen count of 2700 for a genre B-movie.
With R-rated films flooding the marketplace ranging from Hitman, The Gift, Sinister 2, and American Ultra all gunning for the same audience, it is impressive that No Escape still found a respectable number of ticket buyers.
Edwin Davies: This is honestly more than I was expecting since reviews were terrible and the only discussion I saw of the film online was about how ridiculous the "throwing a child from a roof" scene was. The Weinstein Company has already made its money back after picking the film up for a couple of million dollars, so this was clearly a low-risk venture. It also seems to suggest that Pierce Brosnan has found a small audience who will show up for him playing the sort of roles Liam Neeson turns down because he's otherwise engaged.
Matthew Huntley: Given the time of year, the premise, the generic title, and the increasingly unreliable and unpredictable box-office draw of its leads, this result is about on par with my expectations. It's hard to believe its budget was only $5 million, which makes it less of a blow to the studio, and if it can get to the $25 million mark, I'd say profitability is well within reach. This last part is something I didn't expect I would write.
Jason Barney: No Escape should end up being another small time success but it has a little more work to do than War Room. The budget numbers are notable, as this one cost the Weinstein’s only $5 million to make and it has achieved its budget back over the course of the first weekend. It will hang around long enough to make a profit, and I don’t want to over state anything, but it will be a small win for all involved.
As far as the cast goes, this is another example of Pierce Brosnan hanging around in small ways, as much of his most recent work has been international films or smaller projects. At least his two most recent wide releases in the U.S. will have made money. No Escape won’t cost anybody anything, and November Man was a small success.
All things are relative, though. This film did open to about $10 million against relatively weak competition. It will be gone pretty quickly and pretty much forgotten.
Ben Gruchow: Given that I know precious few people who really know this movie exists (and none of those have any interest in seeing it), this actually isn't a horrible result. No Escape is as good an example as I can think of of a movie that was destined for a late-August release and a quick fade from any kind of cultural memory. The only thing that may let it stick around in that memory for any length of time, ironically, is how thematically ugly and xenophobic it seems to be. Even that isn't quite enough to give it the label of infamy that may make people check it out who weren't already disposed to do so, given that the movie itself appears to be functional and well-made on a technical basis.
Kim Hollis: The Zac Efron flick We Are Your Friends earned just $1.8 million this weekend, making it the lowest wide opener of the summer. Say something funny about We Are Your Friends.
Ryan Kyle: YIKES! Talk about a friendless group, as no one showed up to this flick; resulting in an opening outside of the already meandering top 10. This is an awful result as WAYF has the dubious honor of being the lowest opening weekend ever for a film in over 2.000 theaters released by a major studio. If it lessens the blow, Oogieloves and Delgo opened lower, but they were released by upstarts without a major marketing department. Even though it was acquired for $2 million, this is still a black eye to WB since the film had a decent marketing campaign behind it and was projected for a $8-10 million opening before the estimates kept sinking lower and lower.
The problem with WAYF's marketing was that it was being sold to a niche of EDM-lovers. However, if you market solely to a niche, if that core group doesn't show up, then you are left with no one, as was the case here. Still, the low budget leaves WB writing off the marketing costs as the loss here, which probably were in the $20 million range - a lower stakes gamble for the major.
Zac Efron should be a little worried as he is responsible to a degree for this film's failure as it was a star vehicle for him. Hopefully he will up the promo game for Dirty Grandpa to prove that his success with Neighbors wasn't merely a fluke.
Edwin Davies: Efron could probably have got more people to show up if he DJed at some random house party. The marketing costs would have been a lot lower if it was limited to handing out a couple hundred flyers.
The expectations for this weren't exactly sky high to begin with, but this is a staggering failure nonetheless. It probably won't hurt Efron too much since he has Neighbors 2 in the wings, but it does confirm that he's not much of a draw on his own. He needs a high concept to get people interested, whereas things like this and That Awkward Moment are too ill-defined to make his presence notable.
Matthew Huntley: Did anyone really think this movie would do well? There has barely been any marketing for it, the title is not overly distinct, and the plot seems rather dull. Whether or not it's good remains to be seen (by nearly everyone, it seems), but I'm willing to bet it's not. True, a $6 million budget is low, but the marketing was probably another $15 million, so Warner Bros. will definitely lose a decent chunk of dough on this one (not a disastrous amount mind you, but they'll still suffer a lot of embarrassment in the industry). (Sorry, none of my comments were very funny.)
Jason Barney: We Are Your Friends does become the definition of dumping ground film, and it probably isn’t going to make any money. The scale of the project was pretty small, but its release was fairly large, and the numbers for the weekend are pathetic. A national wide release to not even crack the top 10 in its opening weekend, against relatively soft competition. Ick. This one won’t be out of theaters fast enough.