They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
The 2015 Oscar Race Begins at Telluride
By J. Don Birnam
September 8, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
There should be no doubt that the Oscars, like everything else of or about Hollywood, are about business. In years long gone, the point was to reward the movies that had done the best business with audiences. But a Best Picture win for a Titanic or Gladiator or even Lord of the Rings seems near impossible today. Instead, the point of the Oscar race today is to reward the movies that do the best at being just that: Oscar movies. Today's Oscar race is determined, for the most part, by critics and publicists.
Under the old system, there was simply no need for movies that wanted to win Oscars to screen at film festivals - all they needed to do was wow audiences, and the festivals were truly independent, critical and film buff darlings. But something hard to pinpoint happened around 10 years ago (likely, the composition of the Academy finally shifted into the hands of the indie-movie crowd that first appeared on the scene in the 1990s), and among the many changes that resulted was that the Oscar race now begins at the film festivals.
Not since Million Dollar Baby in 2004 has the winner of the Best Picture Oscar been released after October. Since that year, audiences have seen the eventual winner at least by October, and the entire Oscar machinery had likely seen it before that - likely at a film festival or, shockingly, during a summer release (or both). The last three Best Picture winners have premiered at Telluride and many others seen even before that, at Cannes for example (The Artist), or at the Toronto Film Festival.
And that brings us to the idyllic Colorado Mountains.
As we began the six-month, mostly futile enterprise of trying to read the Oscar tea leaves, it is obviously to the Telluride lineup that we first turn.
Carol: A Steady March to the Podium?
Possibly stealing the headlines during Telluride's stormy weekend was Todd Haynes' highly-anticipated drama Carol. Starring an always stunning Cate Blanchett and a revelatory Rooney Mara, the period piece tells of the torrid love affair between two women at a time when such relationships were not as accepted. Haynes, of course, is no stranger to this genre, with his unmissable Far From Heaven touching upon similar subjects at a time when, ironically, such movies were not as accepted. It may be payback for him this time around, as Carol has been universally acclaimed since Cannes, has continued to receive strong reviews from the Telluride crowd, and will play to broader audiences in Toronto and New York in the weeks to come. Rooney Mara, by the way, seems like a lock for one of the quickly-vanishing Best (Supporting?) Actress spots. She's a co-lead, of course, but the studio may find it more expedient to campaign for her in that category.
The biggest peril for Carol is time itself. Like Boyhood last year, it could suffer from fatigue if its buzz grows too big for its britches. The critical cacophony surrounding Boyhood was such that, arguably, many moviegoers were left wondering (unfairly) what all the fuss was about. Carol's challenge, then, is to be more like The Artist (which rode a wave of goodwill all the way from Cannes) and less like Boyhood.
Strong Debut for Steve Jobs and Black Mass
Another highly-anticipated movie coming into the festivals (the centerpiece of the New York Film Festival, no less), was Danny Boyle's eponymous biopic Steve Jobs. Two others have tried and mostly failed to tell the story of the famed tech genius, but it seems as if Boyle (of Slumdog Millionaire fame), with the help of another masterful script by Aaron Sorkin (some are calling it the sequel to the brilliant The Social Network), may have come closer than all before him. It helps, of course, that he counts the supremely talented Michael Fassbender in the title role, propped up by yet another magnificent performance by Kate Winslet. Fassbender is now a serious contender for a slot in the admittedly crowded Best Actor field.
The reviews coming out of Telluride have been mixed-to-positive, but I recall a certain Birdman receiving warm to tepid reviews in the Colorado air, only to come from behind and snatch the top prize in February. The movie did what it had to do: not be a complete failure and generate sufficient interest to propel it to the festival circuit and into the second stage of the race when the critic awards begin. Right now, Best Actor, Screenplay, and Picture nominations seem like safe bets.
Meanwhile, another talked-about biopic landed a coveted spot in the Telluride lineup - Black Mass. The Johnny Depp story of Irish crime boss Whitey Bulger certainly made an impression this weekend, particularly for Depp's strong performance and the action-packed, treacherous and poignantly violent narrative of the gangster's life. Depp is clearly now in contention for a Best Actor spot (and a Sandra Bullock-type award for him is not out of the question), but the movie will have to be taken seriously and stomached as it marches through the festival circuit, with Toronto being its next destination.
Is the Best Foreign Language Film Race Over?
Another movie selected for a prestigious spot at Telluride was the Hungarian Holocaust drama Son of Saul. Since winning the Grand Prix at Cannes, the heart-wrenching drama that tells the story of a concentration camp prisoner who is determined to seek a proper burial for a young Jewish boy has been met with raving reviews to accompany the steady flow of tears. It has been somewhat crudely joked before that Holocaust movies guarantee an Oscar payola, and we shall soon see if that maxim remains true in today's Academy.
Although the Best Foreign Language Film race is notoriously difficult to predict (the nomination process is arcane and convoluted, involving several bake-off rounds that end with a committee exercising ultimate authority to slot nominees in a sort of “save us from ourselves” paean), it seems difficult to foresee Hungary not finding itself among the final five come January, and perhaps all the way at the top when all is said and done.
The Best of the Rest
Jobs and Bulger may have grabbed headlines alongside Carol, but as the autumn gave way to cold in Telluride, a number of other films announced that they were here to stay. The entrancing Spotlight, about the Boston Globe's investigation into the Boston Archdiocese's cover-up of priest sexual abuse scandals, will surely resonate with critics down the line. Michael Keaton returns for another try at the Academy Award, and the plot is entrancing, riveting, and still relevant. Other movies gave us at least potential Best Actress nominees, with Brie Larson's haunting performance in the locked-in-a-room drama Room and Carey Mulligan's lead turn in the self-explanatory Suffragette providing yet another set of strong performance by actresses this year. I expect we will be hearing their names a lot as fall turns to winter.
What's Next: Toronto and Beyond
There is no rest for the weary - as the tents are packed in at Telluride, attention shifts to north of the 49th parallel. The Toronto Film Festival starts Thursday, with movies from The Martian to The Danish Girl slated to make long-awaited debuts (the Danish Girl premiered to a ten-minute standing ovation in Venice, but will make its North American premiere in Toronto next week). And given Toronto's much deeper lineup than Telluride's, it is invariably the case that this or that performance, this or that movie, generates unforeseen buzz. Unlike the stale and predictable final phase of the race, where most awards become fait accompli, twists and turns abound in phase one.
Looking past Toronto, one can anticipate the debuts of movies like The Walk and Spielberg's Bridge of Spies at the Alice Tully Hall in New York. Undoubtedly, some of these movies will be duds and quickly fade from contention, but the winner of the People's Choice at Toronto and the opening night screener at New York have received Best Picture nominations in most of the past five years.
Stay tuned.