Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
September 22, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: This is fine and in line with what we've seen from other non-Hunger Games, non-Twilight YA adaptations. It seems that unless the first film becomes a pop culture phenomenon that makes people sit up and take notice, then these films struggle to break out beyond the core audience of book readers. That pattern occurred here, where the first film did pretty well on a relatively low budget, but if you asked people to name the cast members or their characters, most would give blank stares (as opposed to what happened with Twilight and The Hunger Games, where even people who had never seen the films would probably be able to say Bella or Edward or Katniss). The one downside is that Scorch Trials cost twice as much as The Maze Runner, but it's also looking to make more overseas than the first film, so it'll come out okay in the end.
Jason Barney: I think this opening is just fine, although you have to think the execs were hoping for a little bit larger opening. I don't mean to say this should have been a breakout, but with the nearly doubling of the budget, the studio was probably looking for a little expansion over the original. The money made in the states will approach the $100 million mark. That more than takes care of the $61 million dollar budget. If the studio was hoping for a modest expansion on the domestic front, they will be hoping the same for internationally. That will probably happen, but those numbers are a few weeks away. All in all this opening is just fine.
Ben Gruchow: I'm inclined to gravitate toward this being not particularly fine, if only because tracking was looking for this to open significantly higher than it did (I seem to remember expectations in the high 40s all the way up to an over-optimistic low-50s). Even the post-preview numbers seem to have been a little lower than analysts were expecting on Friday, since the Thursday-night screenings outdid the first film.
I absolutely agree that the trend among YA adaptations indicates a static amount that goes to see each film, with none of the sequels being able to build on the audience. That shouldn't be a surprise, I guess; the Harry Potter series settled into a $290-$300 million domestic groove only a couple of years before the Twilight series did. Hunger Games sold more tickets, but its sequels have been just as static. Scorch Trials opened lower than the original, but it was consistently lower, across the weekend. It'll be interesting to see what the final multiplier for the movie ends up at.
Ryan Kyle: This is a pretty disappointing opening. The original started off with $32.5 million and had surprisingly strong legs, crossing $100 million. While the $30.3 million start for this go-around isn't far off and due to the non-IMAX release this time, attendance is probably pretty comparable without the inflated premium ticket prices. However, sequels are usually more front-loaded and due to the slow burn success of the first, the opening here should have been bigger. Given that the budget was doubled to $60 million and the theater count in a wider 3,791 locations (almost 200 more than the first), expectations were obviously loftier. Plus, competition for the YA-audience is pretty non-existent.
We usually complain about sequels not being differentiated enough from the original, but I feel as if the problem here is that Scorch Trials came off too different. The first Maze Runner was an adventure-thriller, while this go-around was a zombie flick. Also, critics and audiences were less thrilled with what they saw on screen looking at the reviews. A third chapter is imminent; however, Fox is probably scrutinizing the budget a little closer after this weekend.
Kim Hollis: Black Mass, the Johnny Depp starring vehicle, earned $22.6 as it debuted this weekend. What do you think of this result?
Edwin Davies: This is a solid opening for a film of this genre, i.e. a fairly violent, somewhat awards baity gangster movie. It's pretty much in line with what The Departed and The Town earned, both of which showed legs because they appealed to an older audience who came out over time to check them out, and because they quickly became buzzed about as possible Oscar contenders. Black Mass may not perform as well as either of those did, but it should have no problem meeting its mid-50 million dollar budget domestically, and Depp's international appeal should help it break out overseas.
The positive reviews are probably the most notable part of this opening. In comparing it to recent films in his filmography, both The Lone Ranger and Dark Shadows opened higher than this, but they were critically reviled and hugely expensive. Black Mass is the first film Depp has headlined since Rango back in 2011 to get generally positive reviews*, and the idea that he has maybe turned a corner after years of doing bad work in bad films might help fuel the desire of people to see it.
*Into The Woods is the closest he's come in that time, but I've excluded it from this consideration because he was only in two scenes, was buried deep in the cast, and the ads seemed to go out of their way to hide the fact he was even in it.
Jason Barney: Good for Depp. Black Mass seems to have opened high enough for this to easily have domestic dollars surpass the budget. By how much remains to be seen, but the international numbers should be more than enough to drive this to profitability. Depp seems to be out of the speed bump that has lasted a few years. I won't spend any time going into any great detail about his slump, others seem to go to great length to do so.
I'll just say Depp was so big with the Pirates movies and some of his other zany characters that he was bound to even out a little bit. Black Mass is a return to form for him; its success is much more closely aligned with his career than the last couple of years.
Ryan Kyle: This is very much in line with other recent gangster-flick openings, grossing just about $1 million less than The Town, which was released this same weekend. We will have to see if the legs match that film's monster performance, but things are off to a good start. This is also a win for Depp whose last attempts at courting an adult audience (Mortdecai, Transcendence, The Rum Diary, The Tourist) flopped spectacularly. WB did a great job positioning the film as something for more sophisticated audiences, but also commercial (not an easy feat). Black Mass isn't too far off from Depp's other gangster flick opening, Public Enemies ($25.3 million back in 2009 in Depp's prime), which had a 4x multiplier. I predict Black Mass to end up with $70 million at the very least.