They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?:
New York Film Festival Part 3
By J. Don Birnam
October 12, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
But while New York used to mark the sort of unofficial end to the Oscar-contender fall film festival circuit, it is a changing Oscar world we live in. We get a break of about a month, but the American Film Institute’s November film festival has become as much a staple of the Oscar race as TIFF or Telluride have been for years. We will discuss the viability of a Best Picture race when the movie only gets seen in November, but there is no denying that the AFI can be the launching pad to a nomination, with American Sniper and Selma both making premieres there last year on their way to a BP nod.
This year, highly anticipated potential players like the NFL drama Concussion, the Angelina Jolie drama By the Sea, and the Wall Street thriller The Big Short will make their bow at AFI. So the Best Picture, uh, picture, is far from complete.
Even more intriguing is that other highly-anticipated movies like Joy, The Hateful Eight, and The Revenant are not planning, as of now, any such bow.
But I digress, as the last batch of NYFF films begs to be handicapped. In any case, we will keep you updated on these developments here, on Twitter, and on Instagram.
Brooklyn: This Year’s Whiplash
Premiering way back in Sundance, Brooklyn, like last year indie favorite Whiplash, has a serious shot of major damage at the Academy Awards. But the comparisons to the music-school thriller end there. Brooklyn is a much slower paced, deliberate, emotional and at times nostalgic, at times forward looking piece. It tells the story of a young Irish immigrant woman in the 1950s (i.e., not the usual time period you’d expect) as she struggles to cope with separation from her native land, assimilation into the immigrant culture of Brooklyn, and deciding in between the two.
Saoirse Ronan, a surefire bet for a nomination in an admittedly crowded field, delivers a steady performance, hitting the right notes in the right moments, with the correct amount of stoicism, sadness, and exuberance sprinkled throughout. Solid tech elements round out the exquisite production, from the costumes to the soundtrack and art direction, all of which have the nostalgic but hopeful look of the movie. It is fascinating to see how two movies set in the same time period, Brooklyn and Bridge of Spies, can use art direction and cinematography so effectively, to convey completely different feelings. Whereas Bridge is tense, serious, and even dark, Brooklyn is brooding, heartfelt, and sincere. The setting goes a long way in conveying it.
Most interesting of all, however, is the screenplay, Nick Hornby’s (About a Boy) adaptation of the Colm Toibin novel of the same name. In exploring the choices that Ronan’s character has to make, the different forces that pull her heart and soul in different directions, Hornby navigates a thorny path: how to explain her motivations to want to leave Ireland without insulting Ireland? And how exactly does on adapt or assimilate into a new culture: is it by leaving the old one behind, by new romantic ties, or by exulting in your past heritage? Is it a betrayal to want to do the former? The movie is subtle and steady - you do not even realize these interesting questions are being asked until the movie ends - but the emotional payoff is no less real and thought-provoking. The movie stays with you in a real way, even if it does not knock your pants off.
Without a doubt, Brooklyn is going to be a serious contender in this season’s awards race. It does not have the serious-enough pizzazz to lead it to a win, but several nominations, including likely a Best Picture nod, are in store.
Carol: Todd Haynes Gets His Moment
What is it with the 1950s and this year’s Oscar race? Todd Haynes’ Cannes vehicle, Carol, is also set in the 1950s, and yet again delivers a much different vibe than some of what you will see in Brooklyn or Bridge of Spies. This time, the story centers around Therese, a revelatory Rooney Mara, as she struggles with her sexual identity, with learning to love, and with discovering herself. Early on, she meets an older woman, Carol, played by the angelic Cate Blanchett, and they quickly develop a deep passion.
The movie, based on the novel The Price of Salt by Patricia Highsmith, seems bizarre at times. The women get involved emotionally even though they barely know or touch each other. But as the plot develops, it becomes clear that this is not a bizarre oddity in the narrative but a central theme - they suppress their feelings because that’s how they have been taught to love. And it is that suppression that threatens to become their undoing (and also leads to volcanic encounters when released).
Todd Haynes is a superb filmmaker, in ways ahead of his time as he proved with the moving Far From Heaven over 10 years ago, and with the exotic Bob Dylan biopic, I’m Not There. The more conventional Carol may be his ticket to the big show (or at least I hope so) as he hits all the right emotional notes, checks off the necessary tech boxes (costumes, score, cinematography), and explores a story that was way too soon for audiences 10 years ago but that is precisely what audiences are receptive to today.
At the same time, the story avoids the attractive temptation of portraying itself through what we know today about LGBT equality and the progress that has been achieved. It is set firmly in that time, even while it is not about activism or even LGBT struggles (at least not directly). It is, like The Danish Girl, for example, fundamentally a story about the relationship between the two women.
And while Cate Blanchett may get a nod (although, having seen the film, I suspect she’s more likely to get in for Truth than Carol), it is really Mara who steals the show unapologetically. The degree of difficulty for her was much higher. Blanchett plays the somewhat unpredictable Carol with an air of nonchalance throughout. It works, but it is somewhat one-noted. Mara, by contrast, develops her character from naïve ingénue to emotional trainwreck to maturing woman. It is a much more interesting character.
Like with Brooklyn, I’m currently predicting Carol to do well at the Oscars. A Best Picture nomination seems assured and Director, Actress, Screenplay, and probably others are also in play.
Best Foreign Language Film: The Assassin and Son of Saul
The last movie I saw at NYFF this year was Taiwan’s Oscar entry, The Assassin. The movie is in a way a generic Taiwanese martial arts movie - visually stunning, aesthetically pleasing, stylized, and obscure or difficult to follow at moments. The movie is made with the meticulous love of the craft that characterizes these talented filmmakers, in this case the recognized Hou Hsiao-Hsien (Best Director winner at Cannes for this film), and will give Taiwan a solid chance at being one of the five finalists in the Foreign Language race.
However, reports continue to point to a win by Hungary’s Son of Saul, the somewhat unconventional but predictably unforgiving Holocaust drama. Having seen a couple of the other contenders (although I still have much work to do), including Brazil’s thoughtful The Second Mother, Guatemala’s beautiful masterpiece Ixcanul, and Germany’s thrilling Labyrinth of Lies, I cannot see anyone really challenging Hungary at this juncture.
The lull in the festival circuit will allow us to look at the state of the race in the coming month. The last big calm before the awards storm begins to trickle in.