Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
October 20, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Felix Quinonez: I think it's a good but not great opening. I know it beat Sony's predictions by a lot, but I have a feeling they were lowballing it to make the opening seem more impressive. It should see a profit, but I wouldn't consider it a big hit.
Edwin Davies: This is perfectly fine. I'm not sure if it's a good enough result to build a franchise on (though considering the film's "let's just throw every book into one movie" approach, that might not be on the cards anyway) but for a film that's been mooted for a while and which comes with a mid-$50 million budget, this is decent.
Michael Lynderey: I predicted $24 million in my monthly forecast (see, I can't be wrong all the time), but even so, I'm a little surprised that it opened this high. I wasn't sure that the books still had that many fans out there, given all the endless variety of literary fads that have come since. I remember reading the Goosebumps series fervently myself, and it seemed to me like the hype had sort of dissipated in the late 1990s, when I was in my early teens. As is, the number is certainly very respectable (as is winning this crowded weekend against a lot of high-profile competition, including Hotel Transylvania 2). I think Goosebumps has a decent shot at something like $80 million, and maybe even a sequel. And if I may offer a bit of a review, the movie felt like monster overload, so they should focus more on exploring a few choice creatures for the next one instead of throwing in everything but the kitchen sink. I look forward to it.
Ryan Kyle: Sony should be very happy with this "best case scenario"-result. Assuming it has a semblance of legs over the course of the next two weeks, especially with Halloween around the corner, $70 million isn't outside of the realm of possibility. I think the result is a win for Sony, who potentially has another kid-friendly fall franchise with this film. If it wasn't for Jack Black starring and the budget being $58 million , I wouldn't be surprised if Sony tried to make this a perennial outing ala Saw/Paranormal Activity, but for the grade school set.
Kim Hollis: Bridge of Spies, the Steven Spielberg-directed drama with writing by the Coen Brothers and Tom Hanks as its star, earned $15.4 million this weekend. What do you think about its box office debut and its Oscar prospects?
Felix Quinonez: While it's certainly not a smash, I think it's a good opening. I don't think this is the type pf movie that inspires people to rush out to see on the first night. But when you consider its glowing reviews and "A" cinemascore, I think it should have very strong legs. And when you factor in its relatively low budget, I believe this will be a winner for everyone involved.
Edwin Davies: I think this is good for the type of film it is: an excellently realized drama built around a strong script, great performances, and no clear hook. The quality of the film and the older-skewing nature of the story/casting should carry it to at least $60 million, while awards attention could drive it a bit further. As for those awards, I think that Mark Rylance is a lock for Best Supporting Actor, the film could get Best Picture if the field is big enough, and Spielberg could get a director nod, but it's shaping up to be a strong field this year so that's far from guaranteed. Rylance is the only one I would bet money on.
Michael Lynderey: The names involved are absolutely iconic, and the movie has been successfully advertised as a thriller for older audiences, so I was thinking back to Captain Phillips, which opened to $25 million (time will tell if Hanks' semi-sequel, Captain Sully, will open as well). $15 million is on the lower end of my expectations, though I think Bridge of Spies will certainly run well for the next few weeks, even if I'm not sure it'll outgross The Terminal, the last Spielberg-Hanks collaboration (that was $77 million, on a $19 million opening). As for Oscars, as always, it's a very difficult field to break into for Best Actor, so there's a chance that Hanks might not even be nominated. The director crowd is also full, but perhaps Spielberg will get in, anyway. In any case, I think Bridge of Spies will have to go it alone, so to speak, for the next little while, and count on the reviews and audience goodwill as opposed to serious awards attention.
Ryan Kyle: Bridge of Spies is about the art of negation, not fighting; so an opening paralleling Captain Phillips wasn't going to happen given this is a slower film without the action set pieces to lure in a younger crowd. However, with fantastic reviews and the Hanks-Spielberg-Coen Bros triple-hitter, the legs should be abnormally strong on this one. Possibly hovering towards the $70 million range if awards talk picks up. It will be interesting to see if this film can outleg The Intern, which also opened up to a similar amount and has already more than tripled its opening weekend.
Kim Hollis: It’s almost exactly the start you’d expect for a drama like this one. Based on reviews and the Cinemascore, there’s no reason to think we won’t see it have a nice box office run. I’m going to go ahead and suggest that it’s one of the early leaders in the clubhouse for Oscar nominations, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay. As always, Hanks has an outside shot at Best Actor, but it’s a crowded field as always. We still have several other films yet to hit theaters and things could change, but critically beloved Steven Spielberg films always have to be considered come Academy Awards time.