Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
October 21, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Felix Quinonez: I think Crimson Peak's performance falls on the opposite end of the box office spectrum than Bridge of Spies. Unlike Spielberg's Oscar bait, this is exactly the kind of movie that people rush out to see. So I think this opening is pretty disappointing. Also, while it has okay reviews, they're not the kind that will inspire people who are on the fence about it to go see it. And its "B-" Cinemascore doesn't build confidence. While not a flop, it could turn out to be a money loser.
Edwin Davies: This strikes me as a film, not unlike Pacific Rim, that could end up underperforming at home but doing solid overseas business. If that doesn't appear, however, then this could be one of Universal's bigger missteps in what has been an otherwise amazing year for them. The film is a bit of an odd duck since it's been sold as a horror movie (by everyone except Guillermo Del Toro, who has been very vocal about it not being one) when it's clearly a Gothic romance in the vein of Rebecca or Jane Eyre, but with a few ghosts thrown in. That's a much harder sell than a horror film, so I think Universal probably made the right choice in terms of getting people to see the film, but they also doomed it to one weekend of remotely decent business because all the people who wanted a horror movie will be pissed.
Michael Lynderey: I know Halloween is coming up, but even then I think the film won't have very good legs (and there's a lot of competition. Even Goosebumps). Crimson Peak needed a really strong opening to get out of the gate and distinguish itself this month, but it lost the three-way race this weekend, and the start is such that the film might not even pass $30 million domestically. It's curious, too, because the reviews are really pretty solid as far as these things go, but I could see that the film wouldn't appeal to a lot of the people who go see horror movies these days, given the setting, length, and pacing. It's one of those disconnects between critics and viewers that slips through the cracks once in a while, really the kind of big-budget art film that general audiences don't tend to embrace.
I disagree with Edwin about the genre, though. This is certainly a horror film, and a fairly violent one at that. One of the characters makes for a heck for a horror film villain.
Kim Hollis: I don't know that I think this is hugely disappointing. Horror films need a pretty unique hook if they're going to take off and make a lot of money, and Crimson Peak didn't have that (and since it's not really a true horror film, I think it's hard to create one out of thin air). The film will probably pick up enough overseas to be worthwhile. I do wonder if del Toro hasn't lost his touch a bit, though. There was a time when you could count on him to deliver on a project like this, and yet its reviews are middling at best. With his TV series The Strain also just an okay show, he hasn't really connected with his fans and his typical audience in the way that he once did.
Ryan Kyle: I totally agree with Felix. While opening similarly to Bridge of Spies, this result is a disappointment for that a second weekend drop of 60%+ is all but likely given the Friday to Saturday dip, the nature of horror films, and the fact that Guillermo del Toro flicks tend to be rushed to opening weekend. Being a gothic romance tale, maybe this is the best case scenario result? Between the mediocre reviews and bait-and-switch marketing (this is more Downton Abbey meets The Shining than a ghostly haunted house movie as the trailers suggest), I think word-of-mouth will be biting. I'd be surprised if Crimson could find its total peaking past the $35 million mark.
David Mumpower: I also view this as a disappointment. I thought the trailers did a wonderful job of evoking gothic horror. The problem seemed to be that they didn't target the very people who comprise the heart of horror movie sales. By marketing Crimson Peak the way that they did, it came across as a bit snooty, thereby alienating the people who could have given it a $30+ million opening weekend. It's a problem that a film with a $2 million budget can earn more than a slick-looking Guillermo del Toro big-budget production like this.
Kim Hollis: Woodlawn, the faith-based drama featuring Sean Astin and Jon Voight, earned $4 million. What do you think of this result?
Edwin Davies: I had not heard of this film prior to this weekend, so anything more than "nothing" seems like a win to me. It falls into that category of faith-based films that don't really have anything all that special about them, but can still rustle up a significant number of ticket sales purely through telling a story that appeals to a religious audience. This won't make headlines like War Room did, but it'll probably make a profit.
Ryan Kyle: What is this movie? I haven't heard of this whatsoever until I saw it creep onto the charts this weekend so the advertising spend was likely non-existent so the movie is probably already reaping profit given that the undisclosed budget is likely in the low single-digit millions. The Friday-to-Saturday dip is troubling; however, the post-Sunday church flock kept the film from sinking any further on Sunday, giving it the smallest Saturday-to-Sunday drop in the top 10 by far. I doubt this will have War Room-level legs, but $10 million seems reachable.
Kim Hollis: I'd agree that any number above zero is pretty impressive for this, although I had at least heard of it prior to the weekend. It has an A+ Cinemascore, so I could see some word-of-mouth driving some additional box office here over the next few weeks.
David Mumpower: One of the advantages of living in the Bible Belt is that we see ads for these micro-targeted faith-based films that most of the country does not. I found Woodlawn even more generic looking than War Room, so the Cinemascore on this one was a definite head-turner. It might have a solid lifespan on home video a la Facing the Giants.