Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
October 27, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: This is terrible and not all that surprising. Pretty much every response I read to the trailers said that it looked like a straight-to-DVD, and the reviews and word-of-mouth that backed up. What's most interesting about this result is that it confirms what a lot of people have long suspected, which is that Vin Diesel is not a draw outside of The Fast and the Furious series, which should have been obvious after films like The Chronicles of Riddick and Babylon A.D., but people might have forgotten it in the post-Guardians of the Galaxy, post-Furious 7 glow.
Ben Gruchow: $25-26 million total domestic gross is about what I think of it - if it's lucky and doesn't crater next weekend. Surprisingly, the multiplier's not horrible. Still, the most I could ever see it getting out of the North American box office is $50 million or so, and that's assuming two or three ridiculously good holds.
On a qualitative level, it's probably less than the movie deserves. I saw it on Friday in a nearly-empty XD theater; it's goofy, silly, and shallow, but I've also just described half of a typical summer-movie slate. It doesn't commit the cardinal sin that so many other genre B-movies do, which is to try too hard to evoke a mood or resonance when the script hasn't come close to earning it.
The Last Witch Hunter tries about as hard as the concept warrants, and that makes a difference. Most of the movie exists on a plane that's two or three levels more entertaining than I expected it to be. There are aspects - particularly production design, creature design, and the energy of the visual effects - that are objectively impressive. I found the storytelling and character interaction to be, while broad, observant and functional within the world the movie asks the audience to accept.
And that's one of the key reasons that I think the movie failed so hard with both audiences and critics. It's an oddity, but not a particularly risky or daring one, and it doesn't stick the landing on all the aspects of its universe. It's a lot harder to get a viewer to buy into the fabric of an odd movie's world when it's sort of a ragged and scruffy one than when it's thoroughly imagined, complete, and comprehensive. I felt the same way back in August about American Ultra, and that one bombed, too (though not nearly to the same extent or at the same cost).
Ryan Kyle: This opening is pretty terrible, but it's also just what I expected, so it's not that jaw-dropping of a flop. While Vin Diesel's resume is littered with eye-popping grosses, outside of his comfort projects, his name doesn't hold much weight. His last non-franchise project was way back in 2008 with Babylon A.D., which had a similar opening (and critical reception). Opening within range of other fantasy-horror-action projects like I, Frankenstein and Season of the Witch, the final gross shouldn't find itself reach much past $25 million, as it will likely crater next weekend and completely evaporate the weekend after next when Spectre hits.
Everyone walking away from this project should remain unscathed, outside of whichever production company is primarily saddled with the $70 million+ budget.
Out of all of the new openings this weekend going to VOD in a truncated window, this would have been the most interesting title to select and analyze given its big star, the more durable fantasy-action genre, and its goofy appeal. Some people might have been willing to spend $6.99 on renting it (split between friends) as opposed to $15 for a single ticket at the theater.
Kim Hollis: Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension came in this weekend with $8.1 million ahead of its VOD release in two weeks. What do you think of this result?
Edwin Davies: For your average low-budget horror film, this would be fine, and given that The Ghost Dimension cost only $10 million and it has $26 million globally so far, everyone will probably be fine. However, for a series whose first three entries earned $107.9 million, $84.7 million, and $104 million domestically, and whose "disappointing" fourth installment still opened to $29 million, this is a pretty low level to fall to. (Interestingly, that $10 million budget is the highest for the series, which previously stopped at $5 million, presumably because of the 3D aspect.) The VOD strategy suggests that Paramount knows that the series' theatrical life is pretty much done, and that its future, if it has one at all, will only barely have anything to do with theaters.
Ben Gruchow: I agree with Edwin on his hypothesis regarding Paramount. I saw not a single trailer for this in theaters, and this opening is in line with the other low-grade horror movies this year, like The Gallows, factoring in some audience exhaustion. The shelf life of the Paranormal Activity movies has been fairly impressive to me, having been through six movies when pretty much all of the appeal of the concept ran out halfway through the second one. And at least we're not having this discussion about another Saw film.
Ryan Kyle: I agree with everything Edwin has said, especially the fact that the "disappointing" fourth installment still opened to $29 million. That's still a fantastic number for a film that cost less than $5 million. For being the "final" chapter, this seems like a very unceremonious dump into theaters for Paramount, who I think could have had an opening closer to the $30 million range with a better marketing push. I also think the VOD-experiment for this film, as the 3D factor is the main selling point of differentiation for this which will be totally lost on VOD (more than 50% of the gross represented 3D which is a very large share nowadays), is the wrong move. While PA is obviously on its last legs, it is still something people are in the tradition of going to the theaters to see (unlike say, Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse, which is also using this new model). Overall, this is a dreadful opening, but I have to say that Paramount put a lot of this on themselves. Let’s see if the VOD numbers make it worth taking the drubbing on the opening week flop headlines, though (which will, again, be another con in having people want to see it on VOD, with the negative hype of a bad opening).
Kim Hollis: I’d disagree that their VOD strategy is a bad move, though I think it could have been timed better. Look, the Paranormal Activities have always been front-loaded to the first two weekends. If we throw out the original film, which was obviously an anomaly and a phenomenon, the movies in the series have all earned at least 78% of their box office by the end of their second weekend. And The Marked Ones, the version released in January of 2015, was at 88% of its total after two weekends. At this point, the studio knew it would earn the bulk of its money by November 1st, so why not go ahead and make it available on demand while people still remember it?
I only wonder whether it might not have been a better strategy to release it on the 16th instead and then do the VOD release on Halloween. I could see people renting or buying it for Halloween fun at home – but they’re totally not going to go see it in theaters this weekend at all.