They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don’t They?
Carol and Mad Max Receive Early Oscars Boost
By J. Don Birnam
December 3, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Linked are our updated power rankings for Best Picture, which shows a too-close to call race, Best Director, another one where it’s getting crowded, Best Actor, a much less exciting race so far, Best Actress, where category confusion is wreaking havoc, Best Supporting Actor, a seeming two-person showdown, and Best Supporting Actress, a wide-open, up-for-grabs contest. These are basically what we think is going to happen at SAG and Golden Globes at this point.
First Critics Push Carol and Spotlight, Punish Steve Jobs
If you follow me on Twitter, you saw the slow but sure developing at the NYFCC awards yesterday: Carol was beloved by that group, netting it four awards, including Best Picture, Director and Screenplay. Indeed, Todd Haynes became the first person to win that award from that group twice. I’ll say that I was pretty close, predicting either Carol or Spotlight to win with this group in my piece last week. I admit I did not see them crowning Michael Keaton as Best Actor for Spotlight, but their refusal to put him fraudulently in Supporting shows that they respect the movie. It is not that surprising, however, that a group of critics would go for the showier and craftier modeling of a movie like Carol. Todd Haynes could become the first openly gay individual to win an Oscar for Best Director, which would be a milestone.
Benefitting from a likely split between Carol co-leads was Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn, as she nabbed the Best Actress trophy. Meanwhile, Kristen Stewart got a much-needed lifeline in her fledgling campaign for Best Supporting Actress - nine out of the last 10 NYFCC winners have gone on to get Oscar nominations, so she’s on her way. Finally, as expected, Mark Rylance won for his supporting turn in Bridge of Spies. The race is tight, so Rylance will have to start campaigning if he wants to have a shot.
Meanwhile, the National Board of Review spoke a day before NYFCC. They have become a somewhat poor-man’s Golden Globes if you ask me, trying to give a little bit of everything to everyone. Naming Mad Max the best film of the year was a populist choice, but at least one that is more respectable, because of the craft, than the Martian (at least if you ask me). Nevertheless, they could not resist giving Matt Damon the lead actor trophy, a curious choice to say the least. I also happily called their anointment of Sylvester Stallone in Best Supporting Actor, so it’s Rylance vs. Stallone for the win. Finally, they did go for Brie Larson in Room for Best Actress, and with her campaigning she cannot be counted out. It could be Larson vs. Ronan for the win.
The NBR also named its top 10 movies, and some of the usual suspects like Carol and Inside Out and Spotlight were there. The real two losers in the first week of round two, I’m sorry to say, are two movies that I personally am rooting for but that did not find a place with audiences or critics: Steve Jobs and The Danish Girl. They will have to hope for some love from SAG or Golden Globes to say alive.
Son of Saul and Inside Out both took home prizes in their respective categories from NYFCC and NBR. Those will be two of the easiest calls of Oscar night.
NYFCC and NBR Big Winners: Carol, Mad Max, Spotlight, Creed, and Brooklyn.
NYFCC and NBR Big Losers: The Danish Girl, Steve Jobs, Joy, Beasts of No Nation.
What Will SAG Do?
The Screen Actors Guild will speak next week, and because their guild represents the largest branch of the Academy, they must be taken seriously. At the same time, they nominate by committee, are always late in seeing movies, and are over 100,000 large. Many of those people do not see the movies, but simply check-off what everyone else is telling them to do.
The awards tracker lists show you what I expect more or less the five acting races to look like. The most interesting thing will be to see if they fall for category fraud or refuse to, and put, say, Rooney Mara in lead. And will both Carol leads get in? Other than that, expect to see Leonardo DiCaprio, Michael Fassbender, Matt Damon and Tom Hanks, Cate Blanchett, Saoirse Ronan, Brie Larson and Jennifer Lawrence, along with Mark Rylance, Sylvester Stallone, Mark Ruffalo, Idris Elba, and Michael Keaton. That’s how the acting races are shaping up.
For Best Ensemble, it is clear that Spotlight and The Martian are going to get a nod from SAG. Both have large casts and are crowd-pleasers in their own way. And despite all odds, I am still thinking that Steve Jobs finds space there, as it is an acting showpiece. That leaves two spots open. The ‘50s dramas Carol, Brooklyn, and Bridge of Spies are all worthy, but most feature one or two highlight performances. At most, I expect one of them - likely Carol - to make it in. The last spot is likely to go to another crowd pleaser like Room, which does have a larger cast, and maybe even Joy, which features several recognizable faces. But, Joy may have screened too late for them, and along with the Revenant, I expect the movie to not make a real move until the final phase.
So, I’m going with Spotlight, the Martian, Carol, Room, and Steve Jobs as the five ensemble nominees at SAG.
Upset prediction: Creed.
The Golden Globes’ Golden Touch?
More like kiss of death, if you ask me. There was a time when the Golden Globes could not get Best Picture wrong. But now, whether because of how AMPAS voting changed or because the Globes vote too early, right before the tide shifts, they are basically a guarantee of a mistake. The Social Network, The Descendants, Avatar, and Boyhood are but a few examples of movies that win the Globe only to end in a clear but resounding second place at the Oscars.
But, with their 10 slots for movie nominations and 10 slots for lead acting, they have a lot of room to hit a lot of the ultimate nominees. In the comedy side, it will clearly be a battle between Joy and The Martian for the win, and the leads of those movies should easily waltz to nominations and wins in their categories. Amy Schumer from Trainwreck will likely try to play spoiler, and do not forget Inside Out’s chances for a nod in the Best Musical or Comedy Film category. The fifth slot is a wild card, but The Hateful Eight is not out of the question there - they are a wacky bunch. I have no clue how they are going to fill out five spots in their comedy leads. Perhaps The Big Short will make an appearance there as well.
The drama races will be tighter, but you can count on Carol and Spotlight to make it. They were not big Birdman fans last year, so it is not clear if The Revenant has a chance. I’m still thinking that Steve Jobs has resonance with critics, so you could see it, alongside The Danish Girl and Brooklyn. The Hollywood Foreign Press does like their foreign directors and foreign-themed movies, after all. Room also should find a spot here, as it is very much up their wheelhouse.
Best Director is really where the main five movies for the HFPA will be, and here I expect to see Ridley Scott for The Martian, Todd McCarthy for Spotlight, and Todd Haynes for Carol, with the last two being toss-ups. Likely David O. Russell for Joy, if they saw it early enough. Lenny Abrahamson for Room really needs a nomination here to cement his movie as a serious Best Picture frontrunner, and not just a vehicle for Larson. Also, look for them to try to be daring and nominate either Jacob Tremblay, the kid from Room, or Abraham Atta, the kid from Beasts of No Nation.
Check back next week to see how I did with my SAG and Globe nominations predictions and to discuss what it means for the quickly evolving but still exciting race.