BOP Staff Star Wars Predictions
By BOP Staff
December 17, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Let's lay out the numbers. The current record-holder for December is The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. It earned $84.6 million when it opened on December 14, 2012. We know that traditionally, December is statistically a time for smaller openings but long, long legs.
The biggest opener of all-time is Jurassic World, which debuted to $208.8 million in June of this year.
What do you think is the outlook for Star Wars: The Force Awakens? Please show your work/logic behind your numbers.
Ben Gruchow: I'm looking back at the pre-release expectations for The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey to answer this, and there are a couple of parallels (beyond the fact that each one of them broke/is going to break the December opening-weekend record). Both of them are 10-years-later (plus or minus one year) sequels to the last installment of their relevant franchise. In both cases, none of the preceding three films in the franchise grossed less than $300 million domestically. Both of them are four-quadrant, well-budgeted effects fantasies that appeal to a broad swath of the population while representing something quite a bit more intense to a smaller subsect of the population--one that sees more profundity at play in the material.
It's this last property that affects the outlook for The Force Awakens the most, in two ways. The shorter, simpler-to-explain way represents the last point of similarity between this and Hobbit 1: both of them were heavily overestimated for both their opening weekends and their domestic finishes. In the final days before release for Hobbit 1, as reviews started to trickle in (and arguably a little bit of Hobbit fatigue in general), predictions started to come back down to earth a bit...but we're talking about coming down from $130-140 million to $100-110 million, and we all know what the actual opening weekend was.
The movie was overestimated because of the heat and volume generated by a portion of a built-in audience, and the movie didn't expand much beyond that built-in audience. Star Wars ticket sales in raw numbers dwarf the Middle-Earth franchise, but most of those tickets come from a very different movie-going environment from several decades ago. I don't think we can judge either opening weekend or domestic gross by what the OT films did. Or the prequels, really; the population's movie-going habits had started to shift by then, but they hadn't yet accelerated to nearly where they are today.
The other way this last property affects TFA is how readily it can affect the event status of the movie - and therefore, the urge to go see it by members of the public who have a passing interest or neutrality toward it. If the rabid fan base accepts the movie and likes it, if it does for them what they remember the original trilogy doing for them (or the prequels; it could happen), and if it delivers critically on top of that (it appears to be doing so), then we might really have something. I will say that I may be missing the forest for the trees here, given that I feel like I've had Daisy Ridley and John Boyega and BB-8 staring me in the face for six months and I've seen the trailer more times than I can count. I may be too close to it; TFA may open to $275 million and close with $900 million domestic and transcend the cinema and become a new American cultural touchstone. If that happens, I shall declare myself guilty of compulsive over-analysis and exonerate myself from what I'm about to say next.
Until that possibly happens, here's my gut feeling. I am a casual fan of Star Wars, and the marketing (although technically pretty brilliant) has left me neutral. I'm not *not* looking forward to it...but were I not a MoviePass cardholder and intending to review it, I can almost certainly guarantee that it'd be behind Sisters, Creed, Joy, or Carol on my to-see list - and therefore, I wouldn't be part of the opening weekend gross. If it does break the opening weekend record, I'll be happy that the title-holder will almost certainly be less doofy and sketchy than Jurassic World. And I would be absolutely enthralled if the movie really over-delivered on a creative and storytelling level.
But that's also part of the issue: There's no tension here. We know exactly what we're getting, and we know that the movie coming out is going to be good on a fundamental technical level of filmmaking craftsmanship. That's part of the reason why a sect of the population is excited; as with the first Avengers film, the third LOTR film, and a couple of others, there's an amount of goodwill toward the project simply because we know that what we're going to see isn't going to be a gigantic cinematic faceplant. Disney's too canny for that. They're also too canny to do anything that might screw with their cash machine for the next several years. It'll be "good,” but I think it'll be safe and sanitized good. Which, to be fair, is what Star Wars has really always been anyway.
That's going to lead to the first $100 million of the opening weekend, and I think that's a given. Star Wars is something that we culturally identify with a bit more than the British environment of Tolkien's series, but reviews and fan sentiment count for a lot of what happens after that initial $100 million. Given the energy around the premiere, the excellent critical reviews, and the enthusiastic response from early viewers, I think the movie has a shot at capturing the opening-weekend record. What I think is more likely is that the movie is well-attended but not packed and the opening weekend comes in at somewhere between $170 and $190 million. Where it goes from there depends on how much of it is deserving of the anticipation. I keep vacillating between predicting $450 and $650 million for the domestic run, so I'm gonna split the difference and say $550 million domestic.
Jason Barney: The presence of Han Solo, Luke Skywalker, and Princess Leia here is the wild card. Since the movie is apparently good, and word-of-mouth is spreading, I think the chance of there being a new weekend record is very high. This will be the definition of an event film, as anybody born during the 1970s and ‘80s will want to bring their kids - and the Disney advertising blitz has been massive. Kids will insist seeing it.
With an opening near its budget ($200 million) and a strong Christmas season, Disney is going to make A LOT of money.
Edwin Davies: At the time of writing, The Force Awakens has already earned more than $100 million in pre-sales, so I think it's fair to say that the current record is going to fall hard.
In terms of where the film will end up, I want to temper my expectations with talk about how December releases tend to be suppressed on opening weekends and how behavior is different etc. But if any film is going through buck long established trends, it's The Force Awakens. Excitement for this film has been off the hook for the better part of a year, and now that it's upon us and is apparently pretty good, that's going to stoke the flames higher and prevent it from cratering quite as quickly as it could have. That X factor of the film's quality was always the big question mark for me, and if people respond to it positively on Friday, then I see no reason why it won't top Jurassic World, possibly by as much as $10-20 million.
Jim Van Nest: My box office predicting chops are rusty but I feel like I have to chime in here. I understand that December is usually better for legs than openings, but I think this will be the exception to the rule. For me, the bottom line is this: if a sequel that no one asked for to a series that was "meh" at best can set the opening weekend box office record, I see no reason that a sequel to one of the most loved series in history won't do the same. As I'm typing this, The Force Awakens is 169/179 Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes - which means it's good. And if it's good, the fan boys who are seeing it tomorrow will be back again Saturday and/or Sunday. Repeat business will be sick. I think the opening weekend record will fall and fall rather easily. And if word-of-mouth and reviews keep being this positive, we could be looking at a new overall box office champ.
Max Braden: I've been resisting, all the way up until today, the idea that Star Wars could open to anywhere near to the $200 million or so that enthusiasts have been projecting. I think it's significant that December is the third from the bottom of months in the year ordered by top opening box office amounts (ahead of October and September, and just behind February). Whether it be weather or scheduling due to holiday shopping and events, it's clear that December is not the month to gamble on taking the all-time opening weekend record for any property. And even when you're talking about *the* property, you can look at Lord of the Rings (Fellowship and Return of the King) as the epic, big budget, high quality property with high awareness and existing fan base that set records but didn't come close to doubling the previous amount. So until now I've held firm focus on the numbers and not the hype, believing that Star Wars would only open to about $150 million - that the presales indicated frontloading that would not be supported by walk-in audiences until the second weekend or later.
In looking at the record progressions over the last 25 years I only found two cases where the new record holder more than doubled the old record. Rush Hour 2 smashed the August record in 2001 with $67.4 million vs. The Sixth Sense's $26.6 million, and just this year American Sniper's first wide weekend took the January record from Ride Along, $89 million to $41 million. So a doubling has happened before and looking at the trends I think we're seeing a recent acceleration in monthly record jumps. Fast & Furious increased the April opening record by 68% with a $70.9 million weekend in 2009, and just six years later this Furious 7 had increased the record by $77 million with its $147 million opening weekend this year. The month of May saw a stepped up increase from 2007 to 2012 with $151 million for Spider-Man 3 and $207 million for The Avengers. This summer's Jurassic World increased the June record by $92 million in just two years, a 79% increase over Man of Steel's $116 million weekend. These recent blockbusters lead me to accept the possibility that Star Wars could open at two-and-a-half times The Hobbit's record. It does have the killer combination of not only an excited fan base but reviews that say it's a movie worth seeing on its own merits. But it's a tough call. If had to choose, I'm going to say that The Force Awakens won't take the all-time opening weekend record, nor will it break $200 million by Sunday. But with great legs and a December release? It could end up holding the #1 spot all the way through the end of January and even make Kung Fu Panda 3 struggle to put up a challenge.
Tim Briody: A few of us here have been discussing The Force Awakens' box office prospects internally for months, and we all pretty much accepted that there's no way it breaks any sort of all time opening records. The biggest reason is because it's December. It just doesn't work that way. It's about the marathon (as much as 10-12 days or so is a marathon) instead of the sprint. The biggest movie of all time, Avatar, opened to a mere $77 million. It was the next two weeks that turned it into a monster.
I grant you that the idea of box office dead zones is a self-fulfilling prophecy. American Sniper opening to nearly $90 million this January is pretty much the best proof of that. If people want to see something, they will, no matter when it's released. As anticipation for The Force Awakens has ramped up in the last several months, I admit that what I figured would be a $100 million opening weekend (largely based on nothing, I just figured that was the absolute floor) has steadily crept higher as the trailer was released and well received, and now with initial reports that it's not the prequels all over again, I think I have to push it even higher.
Jurassic World is safe, but not without a fight. Star Wars: The Force Awakens opens to $195 million.
Pete Kilmer: I think that Star Wars: The Force Awakens has a *great* shot at beating Jurassic World's opening weekend. Now to what extent I'm not sure, but north of $215 Million for the weekend is my guess. And it's for a couple of reasons that I believe this.
Having Harrison Ford and Carrie Fisher and Mark Hamill return to the franchise after years and years of them saying there's no chance is *HUGE*. Especially with Ford, who slagged off the character and the movies for decades. To have him come back *AND* to do the amount of publicity he's doing indicates a level of quality that he's happy with. I think, subconsciously that resonates with first generation movie fans who have shared this story with their kids and grandkids.
Kathleen Kennedy put together a team of creatives that not only helped create the original movies (Lawrence Kasdan) but got a director who not only grew up on the movies but was mentored by Lucas's best friend Steven Spielberg. JJ is fan but he's a moviemaker and storyteller first. Putting all those factors into a pot and mixing them together with the original stars AND some new actors to engage the newer fans, strikes all the right notes with the dedicated fans who've been longing for a story that continues the original trilogy.
Daron Aldridge: I don't think there is a single way to make this prediction and be safe. Either I go low and be on the wrong side of fan ire or overestimate and look as ridiculous as George Lucas's penchant for prequel CGI. Taking a step back to 1999, when the last batch of “new” Star Wars films unfurled with the naïve notion that Lucas could recapture that magic, that film swung below the predictions for the Friday to Wednesday frame by an phenomenal for 1999 $65 million (plus another $51 mil from the opening Wednesday and Thursday). Despite "experts" thinking it would top the then record three-day haul of $72 mil for Jurassic Park: The Lost World, Episode I was 10% below that record. My convoluted thinking would like to think the exact opposite happens this time around with Star Wars: The Force Awakens surpassing the now-record opening of Jurassic World ($208.8 million) by the same 10%. That would give Episode VII an opening debut of $229.7. Let's see if the box office pendulum swings back to the side of the force from the prehistoric.
Matthew Huntley: I am predicting STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS will open with $220-$225 million between Thursday night and Sunday, with $42 million coming from Thursday night alone. Both of these figures would allow the film to set new records. My reasoning behind these numbers is: 1) It's STAR WARS, a movie franchise that's inherently beloved, enormously popular, and one that hasn't seen a live-action installment in 10 years, so fans are ready for a resurgence, despite the last three not living up to the originals; 2) The early reviews suggest it's one of the most critically acclaimed films so far this year, so even non-STAR WARS fans may find a reason to attend simply because they're looking for a high-quality popcorn movie; 3) The list of titles to come out of Hollywood this fall, as far as mainstream fare goes, has been somewhat weak and disappointing, from SPECTRE to HUNGER GAMES, so the masses are ready for a well-known brand to actually deliver; 4) The holiday season is ramping up and it's one of the most popular times of the year, if not the most popular, to see a movie with friends, family, etc. as a way to relax, get together and wind the year down, and with so many showings, STAR WARS will be the obvious choice; 5) The hype: I can see virtually anyone going to see STAR WARS just for the sake of being in the know and feeling like they're a part of collective consciousness.
Kim Hollis: So, I’ve been calculating and recalculating these numbers over the last several days. On Sunday, I was thinking the film would make $185 million or so. That was as high as I could reasonably get it based on numbers modeling. And here’s the thing - $185 million would be an *amazing* December accomplishment. It’s more than $100 million higher than the previous December record holder, and we know that traditional box office behavior in the month of December is unique. People have family gatherings and shopping and parties and other priorities, which means that they don’t necessarily get out to movies during their opening weekend, but they support them hugely throughout the course of the holiday season.
But I guess I’m just throwing it all out the window. Star Wars: The Force Awakens *feels* different. Logically, I know that what I’m going to predict is statistically unprecedented. Yet, I think there is a mighty confluence of events swirling together. The film is receiving rapturous reviews and viewer approval. Obviously, The Force Awakens could have been fine even with mediocre or negative reviews, but we’re talking high levels of praise. There was a time when people didn’t pay attention to such things, but those days are past. In our social media dominated environment, word-of-mouth is crucial.
Second, I think there is something to what Matt mentioned when he said that audiences have been disappointed by a lot of the tentpole releases in the third and fourth quarter of 2015. People *want* something they can go see in theaters – and they particularly want something they can go see with their families.
And of course, we simply can’t ignore that Disney has ramped the hype machine on this thing to 11. Star Wars is everywhere. It’s unavoidable. And people (for the most part) don’t seem to be getting tired of it! They just want to talk about it more. The topic has come up in conversation for me in the most unexpected places. When I was at a lunch talking about holiday plans, one person mentioned how hyped up her nieces and nephews are for Star Wars. The moment “Star Wars” passed her lips, everyone at the table nodded their heads. I’m starting to feel, to quote The Matrix’s Agent Smith, like I’m hearing the sound of inevitability.
If I look at the math of it, it would seem most reasonable to apply the numbers from the first Hobbit to the weekend, with even a little depleted due to the much larger opening. But then I started thinking to myself, why isn’t Avatar a good model? It opened the same weekend (to the day, in fact – both are December 18th). Alternately, The Hobbit got its start a week and a half ahead of Christmas. Avatar was 82% fresh at Rotten Tomatoes at the time of its release; The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey was 65% fresh. The Force Awakens is 94% fresh – and that’s with a remarkable 219 reviews counted. So, it’s definitely riding a stronger wave than The Hobbit, and is even more beloved than Avatar.
But like Avatar, it also has the benefit of extreme interest in something extraordinary. In the case of Avatar, it was a film that used 3D as we’d never seen it done before. For Star Wars, it’s the return of Han Solo, Princess Leia, and Luke Skywalker in a film that has fans of all age just dying to go to theaters. I harbor no illusions that it has the kind of hold Avatar did on its first Saturday and Sunday (5% and 3%). But I also don’t think it will be as low as The Hobbit (25% and 29%).
Instead, here’s what I’m looking at. Star Wars: The Force Awakens will come in with the biggest Thursday night ever at $50 million. Then, I think the “true” Friday should be around $60 million, giving it a reported Friday number (which combines sneaks and Friday) of $110 million. Saturday will decline. Obviously there’s fanboy rush, and people have other things to do during the Christmas season (although I expect some urgency to see the film in order to avoid spoilers). I’d expect it to hold that $60 million or so on Saturday, as that seems to be the pattern for comparable films from the final Hobbit to the final Harry Potter (which is the current record holder for Thursday sneak previews, by the way). Sunday would give us $51 million, which all combines for a weekend total of $221 million. I can’t believe I’m saying it. But there you have it.
David Mumpower: I made my bones as a box office analyst in telling people that they got too excited about the opening weekend of The Phantom Menace, and it's basically worked every time with the prequels. I haven't done that to splash cold water in the faces of GFBs. Instead, I've done because I've always understood something important about the Star Wars crowd. It's arguably the largest fanboy group on the planet, and they scare the stuffing out of normal folk. So, the media reports these swarms of fans lining up for days on end to watch the movies, and it gets stated so often that people forget that it's generally the same people each time. What we're seeing in 2015 is the logical expansion of that behavior in the social media era, something that was only in its infancy when the debacle that was The Revenge of the Sith debuted.
Having said all of that, I absolutely believe that The Force Awakens would eviscerate the opening weekend record if they'd released the film at any other point on the 2015 schedule before this week. I'm also open to the possibility that they still will. The "worst case" scenarios we're discussing here signify opening weekends $100 million beyond anything that's ever transpired in the month of December before.
In that regard, BOP's most veteran staff members are wryly amused by the entire turn of events. We used to argue that a blockbuster could open at any time on the calendar and perform just as well as if it were a July 4th release. All the film needed was enough demand. We also pointed out that the late December calendar embodied an entirely different type of box office behavior that stood as its own entity on the yearly movie schedule. Films released during this period have their opening weekend artificially deflated, but it doesn't matter because they receive 12-15 days of box office that are functionally equivalent to a Friday. It's an amazing, time-proven behavior that has boosted Titanic and Avatar into becoming the biggest films of all-time.
So, we're laughing at the unlikely combination of two box office trends people used to violently argue we were wrong about that are now commonly accepted butting heads. This IS the box office equivalent of the irresistible force versus the immovable object. I've run so many calculations on it that I'm frankly tired of seeing the numbers. I honestly didn't know which side would win until I finally settled on the user model I felt most comfortable in employing.
Oddly, I'm choosing the one that Ms. Hollis discarded above. I have every confidence that The Force Awakens will shatter the single-day box office record of $91 million. I expect somewhere around $100 million, and even 10 percent more wouldn't surprise me.
The true conversation lies in what happens the following day. The same issues that have historically caused films to struggle during their late December opening weekends still apply. Saturday and Sunday represent the final two weekend shopping days prior to Christmas, and that also means many parties with loved ones. The time crunch is brutal, and people don't have the onus of HAVING to watch the movie over the weekend. They can just as easily watch it any of the next 12 days. Even for Star Wars, that changes the calculus. I think it'd have a real chance at $250 million on 50 out of 52 weekends of 2015.
This weekend requires different calculations due to its complexity. We have to pick the correct model to apply to the most novel situation in recent box office history, and I believe that due to the sheer volume of the numbers Star Wars 7 will have to manage to break the record, it'll fall short. I expect about $54 million on Saturday and then $41 million on Sunday, which leaves it at $195 million. That's actually about $10 million more than I was thinking just yesterday, so I certainly don't rule out its chances of breaking the record. If it does, it's the equivalent of running three and a half minute mile while wearing arm and leg weights. It's that impressive.
Predictions from other BOP staff, friends and fans
Meghan H. - $210 million
Our good friend Ed D. – “It won't beat Jurassic World's opening, probably just slightly less.”
@LordCrom - $210 million
J. Don Birnam - $195 million