Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
December 23, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Ben Gruchow: So, I have this vow that I made on Facebook about a month ago that if Force Awakens does $1 billion in domestic business I'll eat my shirt...and, uh, I would really rather not eat my shirt. So if you were planning on seeing the movie at any point in the future...don't. Now is the time for quiet solitude. Nice, contemplative solitude. Says the guy who saw it on Tuesday night, but still.
The default response here is that Disney did a brilliant job with the marketing of the thing. And they did; no argument there. They created an atmosphere of "see it now, right now, before everyone else spoils it" to an insane degree: more than Jurassic World, Avengers, anything. And people bought in. Not for nothing did this movie, in a month known for lower openings and longer legs, produce a 2.0 multiplier on opening weekend. This was heavily front-loaded, fairly atypically for a December release, which creates a lot of intrigue about what happens over the next few days and weeks. The skill with which Disney kept spoilers and details under wraps, and the cultivation of an idea that there was perhaps no other movie in history with this degree of sensitivity to plot secrets, is what's primarily responsible for this blowing up as much as it has. This is irrespective of The Force Awakens as a film itself.
Jason Barney: The first and obvious answer is that in the age of huge opening weekends, with films being so front loaded, that The Force Awakens benefited from the rush to the theaters. Let’s face it, all of the largest openers of all-time are recent films, so the trend has a bit of history.
What happened here was the cultural icon that is Star Wars and the fact this was is apparently a very good film. Add to that Disney agreed to throw a film out there that relied heavily on the established continuity and characters, and it was a very powerful mix. I think The Force Awakens’ achievement is a combination of multiple factors, the last of which is the quality of the film. If this had been a subpar entry of the franchise, I think it would have lost steam during the weekend and the buzz would have been off. As it turns out a lot of people heard how good it was, and the initial rush became a stampede.
This opening is massive. It will only be a matter of time before speculation about Avatar type totals starts.
Michael Lynderey: This opening is entirely appropriate, because it was Star Wars: the Phantom Menace that gave birth to what I used to call Decade of the Fanboy, a term that is now essentially irrelevant, because it's becoming Century of the Fanboy. From Phantom Menace's May 1999 opening until now, Hollywood studios learned that fans eagerly anticipating their favorite genre property's arrival or return to the big screen on message boards everywhere would absolutely turn out, often in droves, if the studios were to just finally go ahead and make the films. So we got a new Star Wars trilogy, which was huge at the time, and Freddy vs. Jason, and a Batman prequel (that's what Batman Begins was billed as at the time, though no one calls it that anymore), and a Watchmen adaptation, and a Star Trek reboot, and Iron Man and Thor and the Hulk sharing the screen! It's what their many fans had dreamed about for decades, and, as opposed to appealing only to a niche element of the movie-going population, most of these films turned out to be more profitable than I suspect many studios had previously thought.
Most recently, we've seen big numbers for nostalgia movies like Creed and Jurassic World, and when it comes to nostalgia, no one takes the cake higher than Star Wars. Of course, the Phantom Menace was massively anticipated as a return to this world, but what I suspect fans really wanted to see are those three actors - Carrie Fisher, Harrison Ford, and Mark Hamill - on screen again, playing the same roles like nothing had changed at all in 32 years. During the prequel years and up to the (underrated) Revenge of the Sith, their dream seemed to be gone and done. But the Disney purchase of Lucasfilm and the subsequent production of this film brought that fan fantasy back to life, and putting Han Solo and Chewbacca in one of the first big teasers sent the message that the filmmakers had heard the call of fans everywhere.
The Force Awakens was released six years to the day of Avatar's opening, which is also appropriate because it'll probably be the biggest movie of the decade, all time, etc. Sorry, Jurassic World. You gave it the old college try. But the force awakened.
Edwin Davies: The brilliance of Disney's marketing effort cannot be underestimated here. The first trailer debuted a year ago and immediately dominated the discussion by showing almost nothing of the plot, but showing everything when it came to tone and feel. Rewatching that first teaser now, it's striking how well it managed to suggest the feeling of the old Star Wars films, while only introducing the new characters. The subsequent advertising brought in the old guard and hit people in their nostalgic pleasure centers, but I think part of what was key to the success was that it promised something old and something new at the same time, while also revealing very little about the actual plot until very late in the game.
That sense of mystery - which reached fever pitch in the last few weeks as people started asking why Luke Skywalker was absent from the poster and the ads - is unique to blockbuster filmmaking these days, and I think that fueled the excitement. Anecdotally speaking, everyone I work with was planning to see it this weekend, with many going on Thursday because they did not want it to be spoiled. That desire to experience the film fresh without anything ruining it drove the rush, and so made it even more essential for people to see it as soon as possible before they accidentally found out details of the plot, either online or (as happened to my dad) by having someone just blurt out a major plot point while they were at work. Spoilerphobia has been a big part of Internet culture for a while now, but the idea of having the first new Star Wars movie in a decade (and the first one in three decades that wasn't just filling in backstory) ruined may have added some urgency to the usual fanboy rush.
Jason Lee: As Reagen astutely pointed out in his Weekend Forecast (and as confirmed by my own memories at the time), the consensus leading up to The Phantom Menace was that the prequels would be AWESOME. So one cannot attribute the result to the widely held sense that "things will be different this time around." I believe we saw something very similar this time around, but a few factors led to a very different box office result. First, the film turned out to be "good" (though that's not my own personal opinion). Second, you had a Star Wars superfan director - the type of person who fans and geeks could trust with the franchise. Third, as noted by everyone, a great marketing campaign by Disney (geez, that film was EVERYWHERE). And fourth, one cannot ignore the impact that social media had on fan anticipation, which built on itself like waves before a tsunami.
David Mumpower: I stated the other day that if it broke the record, it would be the equivalent of wearing leg and arm weights while running a three-and-a-half minute mile. It...actually ran the mile in three minutes flat. What resonates with me about this entire turn of events is how desperate Star Wars fans were to feed a hunger that had festered for 32 years. For all the then-love directed at the release of each prequel, people eventually came to their senses about the quality of those titles. Still, their passion for the original trilogy remained undamaged by the ravages of time.
The promise of those original characters returning, no matter how large a role they'd take in The Force Awakens, enticed virtually everyone even passingly familiar with Star Wars as a franchise to take an interest in the project. For this reason, it didn't just break the record but out and out destroyed the previously amazing Jurassic World numbers. This is one of the ultimate examples of delayed gratification. The failures of the Star Wars concept, George Lucas, more than doubled demand over time by failing to satisfy people in 1999, 2002, and 2005. A decade later, one of his disciples, JJ Abrams, steps in and instantly does something that many Star Wars fans would argue hadn't occurred since 1980. He made a great Star Wars film.
Kim Hollis: Star Wars: The Force Awakens behaved like no other major December opener has before. In fact, it really didn’t follow typical blockbuster trending at all, as its Saturday increased from its true Friday number and Sunday didn’t deflate significantly, either. And I don’t really know how to explain what happened other than to say there was a “feeling” surrounding it. People who denigrated the prequels were still eagerly anticipating The Force Awakens, and that includes a lot of people who generally don’t go to see movies in theaters. The ubiquity of the marketing was practically unnecessary. It self-marketed. With the return of Han, Chewbacca, Leia and Luke, there was a nostalgia factor and excitement that you simply couldn’t capture with the prequels. People were just ready for a movie that they could unite around – I’ve never seen as much discussion for a movie (with a relatively simple plot) as I have for this one. It’s all about recapturing that moment when you saw one of the original films in the theater, or if you didn’t see them in the theater, truly experiencing it for the first time. People wanted to be part of that communal experience.
Kim Hollis: What do you think was different about Star Wars: The Force Awakens that made people respond to it more positively than the prequels?
Ben Gruchow: Nostalgia played a huge part in the enthusiasm for the movie both in the lead-up and in the opening weekend. That nostalgia wasn't just tapped in the raw materials of the movie itself; it was in the claim by the producers that they were shooting on film (in diametric opposition to George Lucas trumpeting HD video for the prequels), with as many practical effects and props as they could get away with (in opposition to the prequels' tendency to only build physical sets to the top of actor's heads, and create the remainder digitally). It was no mistake that all of the vehicles highlighted in trailers, posters, and marketing were things like the X-Wing, the TIE Fighter, that crashed Star Destroyer, etc. Just about every non-human participant in each image said, "This is not just Star Wars; this is the Star Wars you grew up with." The most out-of-the-box effect or prop displayed in materials, other than BB-8, was Kylo Ren's crossguard lightsaber, and that got some derision when it first popped up last year.
The next big thing that Abrams, Disney & co. did to engender the reaction was mesh that nostalgia with a thoroughly informal look to the film itself. They basically ditched the quasi-formal (in some cases, stilted) look and rhythm of all six of the other films in the series, and went with a contemporary, readily-identifiable look and rhythm that basically matched up with what the modern-day effects fantasy looks like: lots of tracking shots, computer-aided "you-are-there" crash-zooms and re-focuses. The other Star Wars films were never what you'd call particularly emotional in their approach, and this one was. Clearly, it was a stylistic move that worked.
Finally, they amped up the one big reason that everyone would've had to see a new Star Wars film, superfan or not: the mystery. Everyone knew what was going to happen in the prequels, and Episodes I-III functioned as an embryonic version of the book-splitting approach we see studios doing now: one movie's worth of story stretched into three separate installments. Nobody knew what was going to happen after Return of the Jedi, and unless you were committed to looking up fan theories and weeding out the less-plausible/less-marketable ones, that was something you were going to go into the movie not knowing anything about...assuming, of course, that you went Thursday night or opening day or opening weekend.
Edwin Davies: I think it's a little early to say whether or not The Force Awakens will be remembered positively; The Phantom Menace got positive reviews and strong word-of-mouth when it came out and it took a while before the consensus that it was terrible dominated the discussion. There's always a backlash to a film that has this much hype driving it and which is seen by so many people.
However, I can say what I liked about it more than the prequels, and that can boiled down to three things: character, story and style. The old characters coming back was nice and warm and fuzzy and everything, and they were deployed well, but what really impressed me was how great the new characters were. It helped that they picked some phenomenal actors to play them, but Rey, Poe Dameron and Finn already feel more defined and interesting than Qui-Gon Jinn or Mace Windu did.
The story had a greater drive to it, and even if it felt like it was retreading familiar ground (it's being called the series' greatest hits collection for a region), it hit the familiar beats with real energy and enthusiasm. It wasn't an original story, but it wasn't boring. It delivered on swashbuckling space adventure and no one mentioned the taxation of trade routes once.
Finally, the film just looked fantastic. It used physical effects wherever possible, which marked a sharp break from the prequels and seemed to help the actors - it's a lot easier to get a decent performance from someone acting against a puppet on an actual set than against a ball on a stick - and it tried to make the world of the film look believable, rather than like a cut scene from a bad video game.
Jason Lee: I completely agree with Edwin's first point--I think it's too early to know what the long-term view of Force Awakens will be. For my part, I came away from the movie theater angry that I'd basically watched a thin, two-hour retread of A New Hope. My own sense is that a lot of people's opinions are colored by a relieved, "at least Disney didn't f* this one up" hue that may not hold up over time, but it would not surprise me at all to be wrong.
Jason Barney: Ultimately, what matters most about the Force Awakens is the presence of the original cast. With the prequels, there was a sense early on that a decision had been made by Lucas to try and market the new direction specifically to children. The presence of Jar-Jar and his goofy actions, the youth of the protagonist, even the droids were all devoted to marketing the product to younger audience. I think a lot of fans of the original three brought their kids, maybe told friends about the experience, but the films really were not embraced. It was Star Wars, but Han and Luke were not there.
In this case, it is a blessing the original actors were able to reprise their roles, and it has a lot to do with the excitement and enthusiasm for this product. Think about it. All three of the Star Wars movies were huge box office draws....with A New Hope at the top of the all-time list for a long time. And now, 30 years later, people are given the chance to revisit that group again. The prequels did not allow that.
Kim Hollis: I would agree that the return of Han, Leia and Luke is critical to people’s reception of the film, but I think it goes beyond that. Rey and Finn (and Poe) are terrific new characters that can now help to propel the franchise forward to new places. A central female character is important, too. All kinds of kids can relate to the primary (good) characters in the film. I’d also argue that Kylo Ren is a much more interesting antagonist than Darth Vader ever was – and the prequels suffered from the fact that the story they were telling was Vader’s. We know where his story ends. We have no idea what may happen with Ren, but his inner conflict is intriguing.
I also think that The Force Awakens did a really great job of setting up future mystery that has people guessing and speculating. The prequels just couldn’t deliver on that. My feeling is that George Lucas was so in love with the idea with telling Vader’s story that he felt like he had to move forward with it, but the honest evaluation is that it probably wasn’t the best story to tell, or one that audiences needed or wanted.