They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don’t They?
The PGAs and WGAs and Their Impact on Oscar Nominations
By J. Don Birnam
January 6, 2016
BoxOfficeProphets.com
We have also updated our power rankings for all categories, as you can see here.
Producers Guild Nominees
Surprising no one, Spotlight received a nod from the PGA to go along with its SAG and Golden Globe nods. A Best Picture nomination is a mortal lock at this point. But there were two other movies that scored PGA nods as well as SAG and GG, so, like Spotlight, they must be considered near sure things for a Best Picture nomination: The Big Short, produced in part by the influential Brad Pitt, and Straight Outta Compton, produced in part by the popular Ice Cube. Both look to become Oscar nominees next Thursday.
Meanwhile, although fans of The Force Awakens continue to hold out hope that the latest Star Wars installment will take a blockbuster spot at the Oscars, it was the much-lauded Mad Max and The Martian that continue to bring up the fantasy rear, each with a PGA nod, and now also a likely Best Picture nomination.
Next, we have The Revenant, Bridge of Spies, and Brooklyn. The former looks like the most formidable candidate, with strong tech support and the Alejandro González Iñárritu/Birdman honeymoon to pull it through. I was definitely happy to see Brooklyn get the shot in the arm it needed, as its smaller-movie status made it seem uncertain. Also, Steven Spielberg should not yet be counted out.
It definitely has to be the producers of Sicario and Ex Machina, both nominated for the PGA, who must be the happiest. Both movies have been considered Oscar long-shots - they still are, but the PGA nod certainly may help in the last few days of voting.
Interesting stats: since their inception over 20 years ago, the PGA nominees have always included the eventual Best Picture winner. Thus, the obvious snubs here of Carol and Room do not bode well for those two’s chances of dethroning Spotlight. I still expect Carol to get a Best Picture nomination, but the miss here could prove fatal down the road. Moreover, the PGA has a better than 80% prediction rate for the Best Picture lineup, particularly since the expansion in 2009. However, given that the PGA has stayed at 10 nominees while the Academy has gone to the shifting amount, the PGA invariably ends up nominating movies that the Academy does not. Last year, Foxcatcher, Nightcrawler, and Gone Girl saw PGA love, but none from the Academy, while two late breakers (American Sniper and Selma) made it in with AMPAS. Neither Carol nor Room, of course, are late breakers, making their omission even more confusing.
Still, it is a wacky year with a lot of credible nominees. Some are going to miss out by definition.
PGA Winners: Brooklyn, Straight Outta Compton, Sicario
PGA Losers: Carol, Room, Star Wars
Other Developments: Editing and Writing Guilds
Other guilds have spoken, too. The Editors (aka ACE Eddie) Guild did give some love to Star Wars, nominating it for best edited dramatic feature, along with by-now staples Mad Max, Sicario, The Martian, and The Revenant. It seems like this guild went strong on action this year, but Star Wars still seems like the odd man out. On the comedy side, they went for Joy and The Big Short, as well as Trainwreck, Ant-Man, and Me, Earl, and the Dying Girl.
As we know, Birdman won Best Picture last year without an Editing nomination, a feat that hadn’t been achieved since Ordinary People did it over 30 years before that. Still, a miss with the Eddie does not mean that there will be a miss with the Oscar editing branch, but Spotlight sure would like a nomination in that category to shore up its chances.
Finally, the Writers Guild of America also announced their list of nominees. They named Bridge of Spies, Sicario, Spotlight, Straight Outta Compton and Trainwreck for original screenplay, and Carol, Trumbo, Steve Jobs, The Big Short and The Martian for best adapted screenplay. The correspondence between this list and the PGA list is uncanny - except of course Carol, Steve Jobs and Trumbo made it here, which helps all three after the PGA hit. Meanwhile, the repeated appearances of movies like Sicario and Compton really make them serious Best Picture contenders. I suppose there is the notable omission is that of Mad Max, but it was ineligible for a nomination. And where is The Revenant? Again, perhaps the script was not "talky" enough for them. I still think that movie is in for Best Picture.
WGA Winners: Sicario, Steve Jobs, Straight Outta Compton
WGA Loser: The Revenant
The Golden Globes are on Sunday, so we will have some predictions for who will win those awards, tomorrow.