They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
Golden Globe Predictions
By J. Don Birnam
January 7, 2016
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Hollywood Foreign Press: Predictive Value Diminished
The Golden Globes have always been of small Oscar predictive value. The members of the Hollywood Foreign Press are, well, foreign reporters that number around 100. Their overlap with the Academy is probably exactly zero. Worse still, they have two categories for movies - musical and comedy - which allows them ten nominees in acting racings that only allow five at the Oscars. Many years you see the two front-runners win - last year both Eddie Redmayne and Michael Keaton took home Globes, or Viola Davis and Meryl Streep - which does nothing to clarify the situation in a two-horse Oscar race.
And their obvious desire to be an Oscar harbinger has proven fatal to them. In the last 11 years, only three Golden Globe Drama winners went on to win Best Picture (awards juggernauts Slumdog Millionaire, Argo, and 12 Years a Slave). That’s it. Other years, the Globe voting closed too early, when the race was elsewhere, before it had shifted. I’m repeating myself, but The Social Network, Avatar, Boyhood, Atonement and Babel all won Globes, only to lose on Oscar night.
This year, the Globes’ influence is even more diminished, as their awards are being handed out after nominations voting closes.
On the Musical/Comedy side of the ledger, their predictive value is even worse. In the past 12 or so years, only The Artist has won the Golden Globe Musical Comedy Award and gone on to win Best Picture, and there was a streak where films such as Sweeney Todd, Vicky Cristina Barcelona and The Hangover won at the Globes and did not even receive an Oscar Best Picture nomination.
Everything about the Golden Globes this year is off kilter, and their predictive value truly is diminished.
So why do they matter for the Oscars and why should we care?
Well, for one, a good Globes speech can boost an Oscar race significantly. After all, many of the audience members are AMPAS members, and the nominations will come out when Golden Globe speeches are fresh in their minds. It is said that Kate Winslet finally won her Oscar when she gave two strong speeches for her Globes wins for The Reader and Revolutionary Road.
Conversely, a Globes win can “feel” wrong and lead to another outcome come Oscars night. When James Cameron ousted his ex-wife, whom he had cheated on, by winning the Globe for Avatar, a narrative emerged that she was more deserving, which ended, arguably, with the six Oscars for The Hurt Locker.
And the results of the awards matter to a degree in any case, because they remind us what people respond to.
So, I'll move on to prognosticating them.
Final Golden Globe Predictions
I’ll list my predicted winner in italics with explanations as necessary.
Best Picture Drama
Carol, Mad Max, The Revenant, Room and Spotlight are the nominees. Only the last one really has a chance - Carol missed out on screenplay, Room on director, and Mad Max is too much of a genre picture. I suppose they could go for The Revenant to atone for missing Birdman last year, but I don’t expect that to happen. The question, again, is whether the win for Spotlight will be the kiss of death for that movie.
Best Picture Musical or Comedy
It looked as if Joy could eke it out from The Martian, Trainwreck, and Spy, but it has since become clear that it is The Big Short, a legitimate Oscar contender, that will end up victorious.
Best Director
This is a tough one because the conversation amongst Oscarologists is that it is a career year for either George Miller or Ridley Scott for Mad Max and Martian, respectively. They could also easily go for Haynes as a way to reward Carol, or shore up Spotlight with a win for McCarthy here. But I do wonder, again, if they will play catch-up to Birdman and award Alejandro González Iñárritu for The Revenant, despite them giving him a screenplay globe last year.
Best Actor Drama
They rewarded Redmayne last year, and Will Smith’s performance isn’t that great. Leonardo DiCaprio isn’t overdue at the Globes - he’s won here before, so they may take a chance to reward someone more beloved. I’m thinking Bryan Cranston pulls it off over a probably more deserving Michael Fassbender.
Best Actress Drama
The Carol ladies will likely split the vote, and while Alicia Vikander is happy to be in lead here, the one who has really been campaigning is Brie Larson for Room. I do wonder whether Saoirse Ronan has a chance - the movie is more up the HFPA’s alley, but Room remains a crowd-pleaser.
Best Actor Musical or Comedy
Although Steve Carell and Christian Bale could both conceivably win for The Big Short, they will likely split votes. Al Pacino and Mark Ruffalo are happy to be here for movies that aren’t going anyway, so this is a clear win for Matt Damon as the easiest place to reward The Martian.
Best Actress Musical or Comedy
At times it seemed as if Jennifer Lawrence would walk away with this as the popular nominee, and both Lily Tomlin and Maggie Smith are respected veterans. By contrast, Melissa McCarthy is beloved but her role is too hooky. I’m actually thinking they reward Trainwreck here with a win for Amy Schumer.
Best Supporting Actor
I’ve said that this race is Mark Rylance vs. Sylvester Stallone all the way. Mike Shannon was a surprise nominee, and Paul Dano’s movie has faded from contention. Idris Elba could, to be sure, pull off the upset, but I think we will see the first of Rylance’s many trips to the podium on Sunday.
Best Supporting Actress
With the exit of Vikander and Rooney, this will be the most fun category of the night. All are plausible and deserving, from Winslet to Jane Fonda to Vikander in Ex Machina to Helen Mirren. I actually have a feeling that Jennifer Jason Leigh will pull it off as a way to reward her movie but also her participation in the beloved Anomalisa.
Best Screenplay
They love Quentin Tarantino (Hateful Eight) and Aaron Sorkin (Jobs) but neither movie is up for best picture. Room is also popular but does not seem to me a strong screenplay. It’s between Spotlight and The Big Short and respect for the book alone may boost Adam McKay to victory.
Best Original Score
Of the nominees, Carol, The Revenant, and Steve Jobs all have great but perhaps too subtle scores. Alexandre Desplat won the Oscar for The Grand Budapest Hotel last year and could repeat for the beautiful score for The Danish Girl, but it is, in all fairness, the powerful, emotional scoring of The Hateful Eight by the master Ennio Morricone that stands out and that will likely be rewarded.
Best Original Song
The mismatch between this category and the Oscars is almost always very wide, given their different rules. This year, One Kind of Love from Love and Mercy and Writing’s on the Wall from Spectre seem out of it. Simple Song #3 from Youth is likely an Oscar nominee, but I doubt it will win here. It’s between the pop hit Love me Like You Do from 50 Shades of Grey and See You Again from Furious 7, with the former being attached to too disrespected of a movie to have a chance.
Best Animated Feature
These last two are gimmes, with Anomalisa and the others playing bridesmaids to unequivocal winner Inside Out.
Best Foreign Film
Of the Globes nominees, only France’s Mustang is in the Oscars short-list aside from the putative winner, Son of Saul. Although critics did like the story about the Turkish girls that Mustang tells, there is no reason to be against the Hungarian Holocaust entry.
Happy Globes - next week: Oscar nominations final predictions!!