They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don’t They?
Handicapping the Technical Races, Part Two
By J. Don Birnam
January 27, 2016
BoxOfficeProphets.com
While I will take into account the guild winners of those races by the time we make final Oscar predictions, guild wins in the tech area should be taken very lightly. For one, guild members only vote for those awards, as opposed to the entire Academy voting for the award at the Oscars. So, you have cinematographers voting on costumes for the Oscar, etc. This creates skewed incentives where guild members, particularly those who I presume are not Academy members, like to reward the movie they like the most regardless of the craft they’re voting. And thus, for example, last year Boyhood won the ACE Eddie award, and lost both that Oscar (to Whiplash), and Best Picture (to Birdman).
Oscar bloggers and movie nerds point out that Roger Deakins, for example, is on his 12th nomination for cinematography for Sicario, and that it is “finally his turn.” Do not buy it. Why didn’t Deakins win the previous 11 times? His name is not on the ballot. He has won the guild award several times, but has come up short at the Oscars each time and will again this time.
Ready for more Mad Max vs. Revenant handicapping?
Best Visual Effects
What to make of this category? Given the nonstop explosion of effects-driven movies, it is somewhat retrograde that this remains the only true space where the Academy recognizes the films that keep Hollywood employed. This year, at least a half dozen other movies from Jurassic Park to San Andreas had shots here. Instead, they went for the more prestigious pictures - they couldn’t help “me too”ing, the eventual Best Picture nominees, and gave nods to Mad Max, The Revenant, The Martian, Ex Machina, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens.
As I explained last year, this is a category where the presence of a Best Picture nominee trumps the non-nominees, going back nearly 20 years. But that happens when you have one Best Picture nominee (and sometimes none), in this race. It has never happened that three Best Picture nominees make the visual effects cut. That eliminates Ex Machina out of the gate. One theory for The Martian is that this will be the place where they reward a movie that they clearly liked, but I would not count on it - given the much showier craft of the other sci-fi movie in this year’s Best Picture race, there is a real chance that The Martian goes home empty-handed.
So is it between the animal-related special effects in The Revenant vs. the entire-movie is one special effect of Mad Max? Not so fast. For this one, I’d actually put The Revenant in third. Yes, the bear attack is infamous, and the inclusion of this movie shows it has wide and deep support among the Academy, but I doubt the entire membership sees this as an effects-picture. Its nomination here was, in fact, somewhat of a surprise. Instead, I think this is the obvious place for them to reward the popular Star Wars though some will, undoubtedly, resent having to reward the movie in the first place. Still, given that Mad Max will have plenty of Oscars, it is not a horrific guess.
Will win: Mad Max
Could win: Star Wars
Best Costume Design
You knew something big was afoot when past winner Jacqueline West’s The Revenant made the cut here. I don’t think they’ve ever gone for a movie like this, with its disheveled and tattered rags. They tend to like showy and prestigious costumes, like Crimson Peak’s or even Brooklyn’s. The Revenant was thus joined by - what else - Mad Max, and three non-Best Picture nominees, Cinderella, Carol, and The Danish Girl. Clearly, there were too many highbrow movies this year to leave room for what would have been shoo-in nominations any other year like Crimson or even Bridge of Spies. Indeed, Sandy Powell, past winner for The Young Victoria, The Aviator, and Shakespeare in Love, is a double nominee for designing Cate Blanchett’s outfits - as the titular heroine in Carol, and as the main antagonist in Cinderella.
Vote splitting does not come into play here, as Powell’s name is not on the ballot. And while the nomination for Carol is welcome and deserving, they’ve never rewarded what amounts to essentially a subtle, everyday wardrobe - for that reason, for example, Atonement’s beautiful gowns lost to Elizabeth: The Golden Age’s showy designs. They want actual costumes. For that same reason, I think The Revenant is out, as is Mad Max’s stunning nomination here.
I actually think this category is between the beautiful and obvious costumes of The Danish Girl, and the lavish gowns in Cinderella. Any other year, I would have no problem predicting Cinderella for the win - Alice in Wonderland, Marie Antoinette, and The Great Gatsby are examples of non-prestige films that have ousted even Best Picture nominees in this category in recent years. Still, with the spread the wealth approach likely even more a factor given the large number of respected movies, they may feel tempted to go for The Danish Girl. This will be a tough call.
Will win: Cinderella
Could win: The Danish Girl
Best Production Design
By now, you should know better than to ask. The nominees are Mad Max, The Revenant, The Martian, Bridge of Spies and The Danish Girl. The category formerly known as Art Direction, which is basically set construction and decoration, is a personal favorite. The ambiance of the movie is a key element to the atmospheric tone.
My “go for the Best Picture nominee when in doubt” theory runs into trouble here again. It was again stunning to see The Revenant show up here. Outdoor sceneries are rarely nominated here - and none has ever won. Still, while the entire Academy clearly loves The Revenant (and this may translate into a Best Picture win), I don’t think it will be the first outdoor ambiance movie to win here. True, The Revenant has those frontier cabin designs to prop it up; not so for Mad Max, set almost entirely outdoors or in caves. And while the designs of the vehicles are nothing to sneeze at, I would not count on it to win here.
This is another category where The Martian could win its token Oscar. After all, the key scenes take place in the Hab, and the construction of the potato field is a memorable part of the movie. Nevertheless, the art direction in The Martian is not showy enough, in my view, to win.
For the win, I’d go for the traditional, classic sets of Bridge of Spies or The Danish Girl. If you ask me (and you’re not asking me), the Copenhagen neighborhood and the apartment interiors in The Danish Girl are lavish and luscious and deserve the win. But to expect The Danish Girl to pull it off against Best Picture nominees in two categories seems risky (but, again, many movies have pulled off the double costumes/art direction win over Best Picture favorites - three of the last five winners of this category did so with a costumes win over Best Picture nominees). For that reason, I’m predicting the also marvelous office decorations, and the Berlin scenery to take it. It is square up the alley of past wins like Lincoln or The Great Gatsby.
It would be a shame, in a way, to see Mad Max or the Revenant show up in costumes and art direction - then you know members just blindly filled out their ballots.
Will Win: Bridge of Spies
Could Win: The Danish Girl
Best Cinematography
This year, the most memorable cinematography was that of Mad Max, which was joined by The Revenant, Carol, The Hateful Eight, and Sicario. The photography of a movie can be the difference between a memorable and a forgettable experience. This is one of those prestigious technical awards that has gone to a Best Picture nominee 20 times in the last 25 years. That does not bode well for Sicario or Carol’s interesting but at times muted cinematography. Sicario has some amazing panoramic and fast-action shots across the border and the caves, as well as the night shots, but I wonder if most members appreciated that. Carol’s cinematography is actually a character in the movie, alternating between blurry, somber and vivid, depending on mood. It is subtle like the movie’s emotions themselves.
The Hateful Eight has a beautiful cinematography that is up against and may compete with the votes for The Revenant - both outdoors, snow-ridden sceneries. Indeed, The Revenant has the most impressive cinematography in a way - the locations are simply stunning and memorable. The movie lives and dies by its scenery. Its cinematographer, Emmanuel “Chivo” Lubezski, has won two Oscars in a row - for Gravity and Birdman - and could become the only person ever to win three straight here.
I am actually betting against him not because of the statistical improbability (for the last time: his name is not on the ballot so most voters won’t notice it) but simply because the diverging and changing color palette of Mad Max sticks out in my mind. Then again, if most voters see Mad Max on screeners and The Revenant in theaters due to its later release date, no doubt the latter will win. Another close call.
Will win: Mad Max
Could win: The Revenant
Best Film Editing
We come at last to what many Oscarologists consider the most important of the technical races, given that 21 of the last 25 winners are Best Picture nominees and 13 of those are outright Best Picture winners. This year the nominees are basically the Best Picture frontrunners, Mad Max, The Revenant, Spotlight, The Big Short, and Star Wars. Although the times that a non-BP nominee has defeated leading movies have resulted in wins for intense action sequences—The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, The Bourne Ultimatum, etc. - I don’t think Star Wars is flashy enough in this context to win.
The obvious candidate here is The Big Short - it has the cut sequences and the fast moving scene cuts. In a way, however, a win for Editing for The Big Short would be somewhat embarrassing for the Academy, given there are at least two noticeable editing errors that result in items showed out of order (the Jenga blocks fallen over the table, then stacked up again) or twice over (Margot Robbie picking up the champagne glass and then again). Meanwhile, the much more methodically edited Spotlight seems to be in third place, particularly given that it missed a nomination at the Editors Guild awards. Mad Max, therefore, stands to benefit from its status as a Best Picture nominee plus action movie.
The award could be indicative of things to come later in the night - or then again maybe not. Gravity and The Social Network won here, only to lose the ultimate prize later in the evening. But, given that the Big Short only has a clear path to victory for one Oscar other than Best Picture (for screenplay), it's going to win that, it better win here too.
Will win: The Big Short
Could win: Mad Max