They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
Best Picture, Redux
By J. Don Birnam
February 24, 2016
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Although tallies of online experts show most of them coalescing around The Revenant as the pick (myself included), there could be group think going on here. To prove this to you, we’ve created a table that exemplifies just how split this year truly is.
We’ve gone back to the last 10 years of Oscar history until we found a year that was as divided as this one: it happened way back in 2006 when The Departed triumphed after critical and industry prizes were split all over. Here are our findings:
Findings by Columns (aka, by Groups)
First, let’s state the obvious, what we have been saying all along: critics are not Oscar voters. The early critics groups are A) not trying to predict the Oscars and B) have their awards occur way too early, before any sense of consensus has formed, and so they are all over the place. The New York Film Critics somehow do better than their L.A. brethren, but only marginally. This year, their pick wasn’t even nominated.
L.A.'s pick was nominated this year - it was Spotlight. But Los Angeles is one for nine over the last several years. Ditto the National Society of Film Critics - they're one for nine over the past years, and they went for Spotlight. Ouch, Spotlight.
The Golden Globes, as we have always known, are not much better as Oscar predictors, despite the fanfare around them. This is probably a result of both their composition - 80 or so foreign reporters - as much as their schedule: they definitely are trying to predict the Oscars, but vote way too early to be able to do that effectively.
The Critics’ Choice is, surprisingly, much better at it. They are seven for nine in the last nine years, perhaps because they vote by the time Oscar voting is happening as well. They picked Spotlight, so there is hope for that movie yet.
Of the Guilds, as we know, the Producers and the Directors are the best of the best. They are both eight for nine over the last years, although the Producers did cheat by declaring a tie the year of 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. Moreover, the Directors only missed the year that it was “agreed” that Gravity would win Director and 12 Years a Slave Picture. The DGA is the only one that got The Departed right in that crazy year. Those two, of course, are split between The Big Short and The Revenant, hence our problem.
BAFTA was not very good before the switch to preferential ballot - they liked to pick British-centric films back then. Since the 2009 switch, they were on a roll until last year, when they tried to stop the Birdman swell.
Findings By Row (Aka, By Year)
2006 really was the wackiest year in recent memory. The critics were split amongst themselves, as were the industry groups. Then, DGA triumphed. That would mean Revenant wins this year except…say it with me now… “The preferential ballot.”
2008 was the last year of a complete and utter juggernaut, with Slumdog Millionaire sweeping every single guild group and a couple of critics as well. No Country for Old Men was equally formidable, but it did lose at least BAFTA.
Juggernauts in the industry are increasingly common: the King’s Speech and Argo swept the table, and The Hurt Locker, Birdman, and The Artist nabbed all but one of the major industry awards. Not this year, where The Revenant has two but the others have one apiece.
2010 is the clearest year of an absolute divide between critics and industry. Then, The Social Network swept every single critical group and The Kings’ Speech every single industry group. I doubt we will ever see something so stark again. This year, there is something somewhat close to that. Spotlight did actually very well with critics, but has lost most industry awards.
2014 is arguably similar, with Boyhood winning a significant number (even if not all) of critics groups, but losing resoundingly to a near Birdman sweep in the industry.
This year stands out for an interesting fact: The Big Short has won only a single one of these awards, the PGA. For all the stats that people throw out there about The Revenant not winning because of no screenplay nomination, because of no SAG ensemble, etc., The Big Short would be the first movie of late to win with just one major precursor under its belt. Sure, it’s won tech guilds, but those are mostly meaningless to Best Picture.
Confused even more? Not sure about you, but this analysis actually did shore up my The Revenant pick, somewhat.
Legend:
NYFCC: New York Film Critics’ Circle
NBR: National Board of Review
LAFCA: Los Angeles Film Critics Association
NSFC: National Society of Film Critics
PGA: Producers Guild of America
DGA: Directors Guild of America
SAG: Screen Actors’ Guild
BAFTA: British Academy of Film and Television Arts
* Indicates that the movie did not receive a Best Picture nomination
Bold: Indicates an industry voting group, as opposed to a critical voting group
Italics: Are for years in which the preferential ballot was not yet in play.