They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
Final Predictions for the 88th Academy Awards
By J. Don Birnam
February 27, 2016
BoxOfficeProphets.com
We won't bore you with a full walk-through of the six-month Oscar season, but you can check out all our coverage here. At least there was less ennui this season. Normally, by now, the long slog of the Oscar campaign settles into a frothy mixture of inevitability and predictability. But, the variety of movies and the spreading of the wealth has kept it interesting, at least for Best Picture.
Aside from that, the tech races are also challenging. Normally there is one big tech movie - Avatar, Gravity - that is poised to take those easily. This year, we have two (Mad Max and The Revenant). So, basically, every tech category becomes an impossibly difficult question of Mad Max or The Revenant. It's funny that so many pundits are picking The Revenant to win Best Picture but Mad Max to sweep tech - that seems counter-intuitive to me to say the least.
My cardinal rule of predicting is always: Academy members vote for what they like. They don't vote for statistics or for history. Sure, they're aware of public scrutiny of their choices, but when they have a ballot they just want to reward that movie that made them feel good. Academy members are industry members but a lot do not have extensive specialized knowledge of how to actually make a film. Branches that themselves are not involved in physically making movies - producers, executives, and public relations people - are about 20-25% of the Academy. This means that the "Best" Costumes don't always win, but the more showy ones do. They simply vote for what they like. It's just another way of saying: go with your gut.
Below I list the "consensus" pick, which I derived from a survey of online compilations of predictions. If you go with the "consensus" pick, you are sure to get 17-23 categories correct. I try to go out on at least 2-3 limbs each year. This year I'm going out on even more - I don't find the consensus picks that logical and, if I just picked the consensus pick, why bother? I could just list the consensus for you and call it a day.
I'm also listing degree of confidence. "High" means complete lock, or maybe one other possible contender could win, but unlikely. "Medium" means any of 2-3 in the race can win. "Low" means the race appears wide open if you ask me, and basically four or five of the nominees have a chance at it. Finally, categories with power rankings have links to the final rankings of the year.
Check back after the show to mock how poorly I did. Enjoy the Oscars!