Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
April 19, 2016
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Ben Gruchow: First and foremost, they had a good project on their hands. The movie is thoughtful and well-realized without letting anything get out of balance on the screenplay level. Then they brought in Jon Favreau to direct, which is as clear a sign of confidence as I can think of. You look at his resume as director, and you can pretty easily grasp how well-suited he is to guide the audience through a new world with clarity and consistency of tone. They took the visual effects obligation seriously, and the overall feeling that emerged was one kind of similar to the first Iron Man in 2008; here was an event picture that was almost certainly going to be worth prioritizing and going out and seeing.
John Hamann: To achieve a result like this, so many things must fall in to place. Just to get to $70 million, Disney needed the full on Disney Marketing Machine, and it churned out another winner. Add to that trailers before both Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Zootopia and awareness was higher than realized. Mix in those fabulous reviews, A and A+ Cinemascores, and the opening is likely pushed to $90 million. Add to that the sweet spot Disney found in the release schedule (four weekends after BvS, and four before Marvel’s Civil War) and the vacuum created by The Boss and Batman cratering last weekend, and The Jungle Book was pushed beyond any expectations.
Jason Barney: I am not surprised that the result was strong, although this is well above expectations and a big win for Disney. I was surprised by the price tag associated with The Jungle Book, but really all they needed to do was hit the $70 million mark or so and have a good film, and the numbers would have eventually added up to profitability. With an opening north $100 million, this is money in the bank. With glowing reviews, the holds are likely to be very strong, so Disney, once again, is going to have a nice hit on their hands.
How did they do this? Well, I think in the grand scheme there is a certain appeal for people seeing the cartoons of their childhood actually made into live action films. Disney has had success with this lately, and it is sorta like the conversation geeks (I was one of them) used to have in the '90s about super hero films....would special effects eventually be able to deliver comic book stories? Well, that question has been answered, and now I think we are seeing that same dynamic work well for Disney and older cartoons.
I saw the film this weekend. It is pretty good. I have to admit, I sat there thinking/wondering when Disney will come out with a live action Little Mermaid or Lion King? One final point: perhaps the The Jungle Book achieved a bit of buzz in its first weekend because it is worth seeing, the type of buzz that Batman vs Superman was unable to garner. Going back four weekends now, imagine the money WB would have been able to make if they had given a better product...
Ryan Kyle: The Mouse House has been building themselves a perfect storm on all of their major titles lately and here is just another example of their dream team marketing department with quality content triumphing. They have been doing a great job of selecting older titles in their library to adapt in a new and exciting context that makes audiences flock to theaters rather than just rewatch the original on DVD. The Jungle Book's Friday to Saturday jump is much more significant than Cinderella's, so it'll be interesting to see if this translates into greater legs overall. But a 3x multiplier seems to be almost certain.
Felix Quinonez: I think a lot of the credit should obviously go to the marketing, but I think this is also a culmination of Disney's recent success in adapting their classics into live action movies. They've all been successful and that got people more excited for Jungle book. And of course, we can't forget the fact that, based on reviews and audience reaction, Jungle Book seems to be a great movie. We've all seen with Batman/Superman that if a movie isn't good it can lead to a lot of money being left on the table.
Kim Hollis: With regards to Disney's live action adaptations, do you think this is a turning point, or do you think The Jungle Book is an exception that just broke out huge?
Ben Gruchow: It really depends. For me, the 1967 Jungle Book was one of Disney's lesser offerings, and I think they're playing a smart game by remaking those properties that aren't on the level of their biggest hits. Look at Pete's Dragon, due out later this year. The original is fun, but it's aged worse than the Disney movies around it, and it was a diversion more than a classic. The director of the remake has a promising early career, and there's every chance we could again wind up with a superior live-action version. Disney is brand control at its most finely-honed; when the source material is middling-to-fair, what they produce is almost certainly going to be more tonally consistent and confident.
John Hamann: Disney is using those warm and fuzzy feelings we have for the classics and are turning those feeling into cash - look at how audiences embraced The Jungle Book this weekend. I used to rail against this type of unoriginality, but in this case, by combining the real with superior technology, Jon Favreau makes a breakthrough film, as Disney gets the hit they manufactured. I would spit further on Disney for this, but they keep making really good films, movies that don’t pale against their predecessors, only add to their legend. With this result, this universe can only grow. Films like Dumbo and Pinocchio could be just as big or bigger, if they continue to create good feelings about the brand, as they have carefully done both with Cinderella and The Jungle Book. How far away is the crossover flick where Mowgli, Ariel and the reindeer from Frozen have to save the world from the evil James Franco? It’s only a matter of time.
Jason Barney: Actually, I think this might be an "Iron Man" moment in that I don't think we understand the money making potential of the retelling of some of the older cartoon stories. Iron Man burst out as a blockbuster and historically can really be seen as the moment when the Marvel Universe beyond X-Men and Spider-Man became viable.
I'm wondering if Jungle Book just might be the marquee moment where we look back and think that is when support really came together and was noteworthy for these projects. Imagine the stampede scene in the Lion King or the climax of the Little Mermaid in a live action film. I think Disney is onto something big here.
Ryan Kyle: I wouldn't necessarily call this a 'high point' as all of the film's in Disney's animated-to-live action series have been monstrous successes, proving that Alice In Wonderland wasn't just a fluke. But I do see this opening as a sign that Disney might begin moving from March to the more competitive (and possibly more lucrative) summer months with these titles.