Monday Morning Quarterback Part III
By BOP Staff
April 21, 2016
BoxOfficeProphets.com
John Hamann: Didn’t this just come out and was called Self/Less? Ryan Reynolds can’t seem to stay in one body these days. Reviews killed Criminal. It aimed at older adults - so it couldn’t do a Batman/Superman, and just blow through bad reviews. Kevin Costner should support other actors now until better scripts come along – he’s not making Deadpool 2. The bigger story here is the umpteenth consecutive dud for Lionsgate, as they are having an awful, awful year.
Jason Barney: I agree with the earlier comments about this being sad territory for Lionsgate. Their most recent run is pretty dismal and The Criminal is not going to help much.
On a personal level, I was hoping this one was going to break out a little bit. It is the homer in me, but I enjoy seeing the actors (Kevin Costner) of my youth remaining relevant at the box office. He had a decent and somewhat successful run at the box office over the last couple of years. McFarland USA, Black or White, Draft Day, and 3 Days to Kill were all smaller projects that at least made a little money for the studios involved. Under the radar type successes.
The Criminal will not do as well, unfortunately.
Ryan Kyle: The fact that Costner's quiet Oscar-hopeful drama, Black or White, opened to bigger numbers than this rollicking action thriller with some major stars really shows how bad of a job Lionsgate did to sell this film (as well as how bad the reviews really are). I think everyone involved will come out unscathed and it will be forgotten about until it is on Netflix in nine months.
David Mumpower: I had the same thought as Hamann. I don't understand why Ryan Reynolds would take two projects so similar in story in such a short period of time. The actual performance reminds me of All About Steve, the in-between movie for Sandra Bullock that she sandwiched with The Proposal and The Blind Side. Reynolds is coming off a very recent mega-blockbuster. The fact that there was little studio support and virtually no media appearances for the lead actor tells me that everybody knew this was a bomb. So, everyone involved politely agreed to let this one die, leaving it as a tax write-off disguised as a thriller.
Kim Hollis: Now that we've had a few weeks to observe the behavior of Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, what are your thoughts on the project and the future Justice League films?
John Hamann: I’ve been all over this in the wrap, but will sum up: box office-wise, Batman v Superman has behaved like Josh Trank’s Fantastic Four all the way, just with bigger numbers. This mistake will haunt future releases – if the tone and critical reaction continue through to Suicide Squad, the Justice League movie might as well carry the subtitle Quest for Peace, and fold up shop after. This example will be held up for eons as what not to with a franchise.
Jason Barney: I think the course can be corrected, but it certainly feels like the DC Universe is floundering a bit right now. I finally saw the film this weekend, and it wasn't as bad as I had heard. However, walking out and saying, "well, that didn't suck as much as I thought it would," is not a ringing endorsement either. I think $1 billion worldwide is now out of the picture, but I wouldn't be surprised if Batman vs Superman chugs along and passes $900 million. It will be tight, and at the end of its run it is going to need much better holds. Of course, much smaller numbers are involved now.
In the end, the difference to WB will be in the details. If it was truly mega expensive and it needed to get over $1 billion worldwide to make a profit then the future of the brand has some questions. If it was a bit cheaper than some are speculating, then it is already approaching profitability. If that is the case, the effort of expanding the DC universe will continue.
I think the best way to look at this though is such a missed opportunity. If you think of box office potential here, Batman vs Superman failed miserably. When a film creates significant buzz - like Star Wars did, Jurassic World, like The Jungle Book did this weekend - then the support from movie goers can bring a studio A LOT of money. Here we are, Batman v Superman has been in theaters for four weekends and it is already below $10 million dollars for the weekend? Ouch. Think of it...two of the most iconic comic book characters, and this is the result? Maybe I am being critical, but the final result could have been so much better. It could have earned so much more money.
Felix Quinonez: I think that DC/WB definitely left a lot of money on the table. I really believe that this should have been a way bigger movie. I think that it is insane that a Deadpool movie will most likely outgross a Batman/Superman movie domestically.Up until a couple of months ago most people hadn't even heard of Deadpool. But Batman and Superman are icons. People who have never even picked up a comic book know these characters, yet somehow their first time on the big screen together won't outgross Deadpool.
And as far as the future of the DC Cinematic universe goes, I definitely think that they are losing audience interest. Their situation is by no means a disaster, but I believe DC definitely needs to make some changes.
David Mumpower: I called it a disaster weeks before anybody else since the underlying math of it was so pointed. This is the box office equivalent of jumping off Mount Everest sans a parachute. The audience reception to Batman v Superman on opening weekend was harshly negative (a B Cinemascore from superfans might as well be an F), and the situation has only degraded from there. Worldwide, its box office performance is as consistent as it is stunning. The film sits at $95 million in China, and it won't reach $100 million since it's dying at such a historic pace.
Putting a bow on this one, many of us expressed disappointment over the performance of The Dark Knight Rises. That film debuted four years ago and was promptly met with headline-grabbing tragedy. Despite all its struggles, it's going to surpass Dawn of Justice by more than $100 million domestically AND internationally. That's despite four years of box office inflation plus international theatrical expansion. It simply shouldn't be possible, and that's before we factor in the introduction of a second iconic intellectual property in Superman. Three years ago, I repeatedly stated that Man of Steel was a much larger failure than anybody appreciated. Man of Steel 2 bears the onus of its infrastructural failures. Audiences wanted to see a more engaging, less oppressive and - let's be honest - LESS STUPID version of Batman and Superman. Zack Snyder couldn't even clear a hurdle that low.
I've maintained for the body of a year that the most important WB/DC film this year is Suicide Squad. That's because I saw Dawn of Justice's disappointment as a foregone conclusion. The story of DC villains can redeem the brand a bit if it's good and, most importantly, less oppressive. Then, they can follow with Wonder Woman, the only DC character that wasn't damaged significantly by Batman v Superman, even if her introduction was lacking overall (my non-comic reading brother asked me after the movie who she was...that's how poorly Snyder handled her character). If Suicide Squad AND Wonder Woman are both good movies, they can regain the momentum they've lost here. Should either of those films bust, the WB/DC slate of movies that they're promising will each face a difficult uphill struggle to excel.
To a larger point, if I sat on the Time Warner board of directors, I would have wanted everybody involved with this fiasco's resignation on my desk two weeks ago. A failure this total on a project this seminal to the short term future of the company is wholly unacceptable.