Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
June 26, 2016
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Jason Barney: When something like this happens usually there are a lot of contributing factors. Obviously, the most significant of the reasons for this massive opening is that fact we are looking at a good film/very popular franchise. I'd argue that Finding Nemo is an animated flick that almost every parent or older sibling talks about in a positive way. It achieved nearly classic status as far as kids films go. Now, Finding Dory appears to be nearly as good, which is saying A LOT.
Another factor is that Finding Dory is actually a case of the much anticipated sequel. It is kinda hard to compare it with what happened to Jurassic World last year, but it certainly is similar. The newest installment is pretty much a beloved story. Jurassic World set huge records and now Finding Dory is doing the same. I think another factor was the timing. School is out, and most of the people who wanted to see Angry Birds already did. It has been out for five weeks. The other two kids flicks in theaters are Jungle Book and Zootopia, and both of them have been out for a long time. Families wanted something to do and Finding Dory became an option for a lot of people.
Finally, I believe people were just looking for something better at the box office. The last few weeks have been awful, with Now You See Me 2, Warcraft, X-Men, Teenage Mutant Turtles 2, and Alice Through the Looking Glass all underperforming. With social media affecting movie sales so quickly, people jumped at the chance to see something good.
Ben Gruchow: $135 million seems to be on the low end for multiplier; it points at somewhere between 2.48 and 2.5, which is lower than any recent Pixar sequel, including Cars 2. On the other hand, the number is so ridiculously inflated to begin with that a lower multiplier makes more sense here than it would if we were looking at an opening of $90-$100 million. And if we remove the Thursday night sneak previews, the multiplier jumps pretty significantly, to about 2.8. And unless I'm massively misreading the family-audience buzz for Independence Day 2: Independent Harder, it's got the next two weeks (ish) to itself until The BFG opens, and an over/under of $400 million domestic seems appropriate.
How this happened seems readily evident: Finding Nemo was the studio's biggest hit for seven years, and it's still the best-reviewed Pixar film without the word "Toy" in the title. In direct contrast with Monsters University or Cars 2, Finding Dory got to exploit the connection to an original that provides so many "reference moments" to Pixar in people's minds that the question of whether or not to see the film, I think, is much less "if" than "when"...and with a 94% Tomatometer, the "when" was always going to be "opening weekend". The movie would have needed to faceplant pretty hard in order to not be one of the biggest sure things of the summer. And it didn't faceplant.
Kim Hollis: I think several things played into this magical performance. First of all, as has been mentioned above, Finding Nemo is a very well loved film, and we've actually had a long enough time between films that some of the people who were teenagers and saw the film in 2003 might actually even have their own families to take to the movies now. At the very least, Finding Nemo was a multigenerational phenomenon, and a sequel to such a beloved project had a fantastic shot at strong success.
Then, when reviews came in strong, audiences had no reason to fear that their happy memories of Dory, Nemo and Marlin would be maligned by the sequel. Ellen Degeneres did a fantastic job of promoting the film, and people just love her across the globe. Having her as your film's spokesperson is certainly a boon.
Finally, I think that Dory being the central character here was key. People love that little Blue Tang, and to see her story, one that reinforces notions of family, was going to get parents and children into theaters. Even with the misstep of The Good Dinosaur, Pixar is still a trusted brand. There's no better way to regain that trust than to give audiences a movie about a group of characters they've been yearning to see more of.
David Mumpower: In addition to all the other points mentioned above, another one of our box office tenets comes into play here. Disney Animation is a brand, and the quality of their prior titles is an underrated factor. While Pixar had their biggest miss ever with The Good Dinosaur, Inside Out lingers in the memory of consumers. Combined with the impeccable quality of Zootopia, Disney's offered consumers a pair of strong family films over the past year. One of those was relatively recent and built goodwill for Finding Dory. Combined with the lingering fondness for Finding Nemo, audiences who don't ordinarily show up for opening weekend gave this one a chance. Since they're wildly satisfied overall with Finding Dory, that goodwill should continue for Moana later this year, too.
Kim Hollis: Central Intelligence, a buddy comedy featuring The Rock and Kevin Hart, debuted with $34.5 million. What do you think of this result?
Jason Barney: Warner Bros. has to be thrilled compared to what has happened to all of the other films released over the last couple of weeks. The budget was within the "safe" range, as we are talking about a comedy starring the Rock in the weeks just before July 4th weekend. $50 million was a big, but not excessive budget. Kevin Hart has a track record, and The Rock is at the point now where people expect to see a film or two out of him each summer. Did it break out? Not really. Is it going to make money and do a bit better than Hollywood's most recent offerings? Just look in the rearview mirror. This will play well enough and get a nice bump from July 4th.
David Mumpower: We're discussing a film that's going to earn money during its theatrical release. We sometimes have a tendency to take performances like that for granted, but we shouldn't. Look at the long list of box office disappointments we've witnessed during the first half of 2016. A lot of "name" films, sequels and original properties featuring popular celebrities, failed to entice consumers. This impeccably cast buddy cop movie doesn't try to reinvent the wheel. Instead, it offers the basic premise of an action hero and a sidekick for the sake of comic relief. Central Intelligence delivers exactly what it promises, which is sadly a refreshing concept this year. Too many films tried to sell more of the same without justifying their necessity. The strongest compliment I can give Central Intelligence is that it knows precisely what it is during an era of celluloid identity crisis. Audiences respect its honestly, and that's why it's succeeded.
Kim Hollis: The number is fine, but I can't help but feel that it's mildly disappointing. Kevin Hart has had several films open in this range, and even if his star has fallen off somewhat, Dwayne Johnson should have added more to the bottom line, in my view. Then again, maybe these Kevin Hart "buddy" comedies just have a threshold that they'll never break out from. Either way, Warner Bros. will be happy with the result, but probably realize that there's some money on the table.