They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?: The Oscars After the Festivals
By J. Don Birnam
November 23, 2016
BoxOfficeProphets.com

Three movies together? People will start to talk.
The New York Film Festival closed last month with The Lost City of Z and Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. Neither seems to have wowed the critics in any significant way, although perhaps Annette Benning’s performance in 20th Century Women may gain some traction. Then, the AFI Fest finished in LA last week and though Miss Sloane, Patriot’s Day, and Rules Don’t Apply played generally well, none seem to have caused a major shift in the Oscars race. So, now we can draw some conclusions about the state of the Oscars race at the conclusion of the main film festivals of the fall season - Telluride, Toronto, and the aforementioned NYFF and AFI. It appears as if La La Land remains ahead for Best Picture, while we obviously have a very wide-open Best Actress race.

Little else seems mortally locked - some stuff remains to be seen widely, of course. There is always a chance that, later Denzel Washington’s Fences or Missing Pieces could make a late move. Both have received warm receptions from those who have seen them. And no one has seen Silence yet.

Let’s look at the main categories, noting I only list movies I’ve actually seen.

Best Picture and Director: Can La La Land be Jackied?

Here’s what we know: Jackie and La La Land are the strongest festival contenders so far, and they are basically guaranteed a nod. We also know what is not getting nominated, and that is Birth of a Nation. That will be the fastest rise and fall of an Oscar contender in recent memory, to be honest. The lack of box office success last month sealed the deal after the takedown job surrounding the rape allegations against the film’s director. Much will be said about that, particularly if it results in another #OscarsSoWhite debacle. We shall see.

From there, not much is clear. There is a lot of stuff we have talked about from the festivals, including Moonlight, Arrival, and Manchester by the Sea. But none is a surefire, slam-dunk nominee. A lot will depend on how strong some of the remaining films are. Moonlight, at least, continues its solid critic run, so it seems safer, and Arrival has had solid early returns as well.

Full Best Picture rankings here.

And Best Director looks out to shake along similar lines, with Damien Chazelle the obvious shoo-in for La La, and Pablo Larrain for Jackie. It is also possible to see Eastwood here for Sully, since he’s a perennial favorite, but don’t discount the technical prowess of Dennis Villeneuve with Arrival, particularly after last year’s near miss with Sicario, to make it in here as well.

Full Best Director rankings here.

Best Actor and Actress: No Clear Sense

Best Actor tends to be the crowded race every year, though this time around it is not as strong as its sister category. Still, watch out for Casey Affleck with his touching performance in Manchester by the Sea, and even Ryan Gosling could ride in La La Land’s coattails in a weak year. The same goes for Tom Hanks in Sully, though the Academy has surprisingly stayed away from him more often than not in his past savior-type roles. Joel Edgerton could sneak in for Loving, though it is Ruth Negga who steals the film. Overall, then, there is not much to talk about in this realm as of yet.

Full Best Actor rankings here here.

Best Actress, by contrast, is an embarrassment of riches. Start with the Best Picture frontrunner, Emma Stone for La La Land, and continue on with Amy Adams’ two superb roles in Arrival and Nocturnal Animals. There is the revelation of Ruth Negga in Loving, and last but certainly not least Natalie Portman for Jackie, who to me is currently the frontrunner. French diva Isabelle Huppert may also get in for her troubling turn in Elle, but that movie is going to be a challenge for American audiences. And, remember, this is without talking about Jessica Chastain. Yowza.

Full Best Actress rankings here here.

Best Supporting Actor and Actress: Same

Supporting races are rarely won by supporting players these days, and the slots can get filled out almost by accident as the lead tends to be a runaway of late. But the Supporting Actor race this year is not such a category - while Aaron Eckhart is nominally on top for Bleed for This, I have serious misgivings about the power of that movie. I’d more like to see Luke Hedges rewarded for his show-stopping performance in Manchester by the Sea, while the two rascals in Hell or High Water, Jeff Bridges and Ben Foster, are forces in this category as well. Some are also saying that Hugh Grant could score a career nod for Florence Foster Jenkins, but I have my doubts about that one if the race fills up. Another one where we are in a holding pattern.

Best Supporting Actor rankings here.

And Supporting Actress here.

At lot of the same can be said in the supporting actress race: some contenders but no clear consensus. If I had to pick I’d say Naomie Harris is ahead for Moonlight - she’s by far the best supporting turn I’ve seen this year. Michelle Williams will also likely get in for her moving performance in Manchester by the Sea. It’s really empty after that, though. Some think Nicole Kidman can make it if Lion is strong. I suppose. Or any of the talented women in Certain Women would deserve a nod, but that movie seems beyond the subtlety levels of the Academy. And then there is Fences again, with people saying Viola Davis is a shoo-in too.

Best Animated and Foreign Language Films: No Early Consensus Either

Unlike last year, when Inside Out was the runaway favorite, we don’t have any such powerhouse this year. Pixar’s Finding Dory, for example, was well received and did well with audiences, but does not feel as powerful. Meanwhile, the more artistic Kubo and the Two Strings seems like an easy artsy option, while Illumination Entertainment has a viable contender for a first ever prize here with the upcoming Sing. And the branch always throws in some wrenches here, so it is hard to know where this is going. Some people are even saying Moana may take it, though I don’t see it as strong as past November Disney releases.

For Animated rankings click here.

Similar to the Animated race, the Foreign Language race had a clear frontrunner last year, but no such consensus has emerged so far. In the lead is likely Germany’s Toni Erdmann, but the bloated run time and subtle message will pose a challenge for the Academy. The same goes for Romania’s Sieranevada, an undeniably smart film that will be hard for many to process. Meanwhile, Spain’s Julieta seems more accessible, though I have a hard time imagining that film winning. And France’s Elle is sure to raise some eyebrows, which may hurt it as much as help it.

Still, with a record 85 submissions this year, there is no lack of good options here, many of which people are still exploring.

And for Foreign Language check it out here.

Thoughts? Twitter: @jdonbirnam
Instagram: @awards_predix