They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?:
Globes Boost Usual Suspects
By J. Don Birnam
December 13, 2016
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Expected Players: La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea
The three films that have won the top prizes from critics' groups ranging from the NYFCC to LAFCA and the National Board of Review had strong showings here, each of the three receiving Picture, Director, Writing, and some acting nods. Those three will continue to dominate the precursor awards - all three should get a SAG ensemble nod - but it is clear which one is ahead right now: the one with the seven nominations.
Biggest Globes Losers: Silence, Arrival, Sully
Meanwhile, three movies that have made various lists, including the Critics' Choice and the National Board of Review top ten, got completely or almost completely shut out here. It is hard to know when Clint Eastwood is going to be a hit with this group, and the same goes for Martin Scorsese, but perhaps these are accidents of schedule. Don't forget that Wolf of Wall Street and American Sniper both did rather poorly with the HFPA, only to land Best Picture nominations when all was said and done.
Still, late releases continue to do poorly with precursors, which may affect their overall Oscar chances.
Arrival, meanwhile, seems more hurt, as it's been around and clearly curried little favor. That said, they do not seem to like Denis Villeneuve's work that much, whereas the Academy has proven itself more resilient. Still, the futuristic film is in trouble.
Biggest Globes Winners: Lion, Hacksaw Ridge, Nocturnal Animals
Nocturnal Animals is clearly the biggest surprise here - with writing, directing, and acting nods from the Globes. It is also the least likely to transform that into Oscar gold, as the tastes of the groups seem divergent enough to prevent that.
It is hard to tell, meanwhile, whether Lion's success here is a sign of things to come or if it's a Harvey Weinstein induced fluke. Still, with Picture and acting nods, it has to be taken seriously. The same goes for Mel Gibson's Hacksaw Ridge, which has wowed some critics and got Picture, Writing, Directing and Acting nods here, something only the three main contenders managed to do. Other than a potential upset by Garfield, I can't see it winning Globes or above-the-line Oscars, but it will be a contender to do so.
Early Globes Predictions
When it comes to picking winners, some categories are cleaner than others.
Best Supporting Actress
This is an interesting race that seems to be shaping up in Viola Davis's favor, but you cannot count out Naomie Harris and Michelle Williams. The latter has a devastating “Oscar” type scene, while Davis has a couple that seem more staged. That said, Davis is criminally overdue for an Oscar (though she has Globes, which may make them less inclined here). Past winners Nicole Kidman (Lion) and Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures) are happy to be here but will not add another Globe to their total.
Best Supporting Actor
This category is quickly turning into a runaway at the Oscars, with Moonlight's Mahershal Ali racking up win after win with Jeff Bridges in distant second. The other nominees are still questionable in my mind for even getting an Oscar nod - Dev Patel for Lion, Aaron Taylor Johnson for Nocturnal Animals (they really liked that movie), and Simon Helberg for Florence Foster Jenkins are simply happy to be here.
Best Screenplay
Their five picks here almost mirror their selection of Directors, with Nocturnal Animals making a surprise appearance, except that Hell or High Water is here. This is perhaps a category where you can see something upsetting La La Land, which should dance off with the Best Score Globe but could have trouble in writing against the more cerebral Moonlight or Manchester by the Sea. If La La does win, then it's a sweep, but I'm predicting Manchester by the Sea for now.
Best Director
Here is where we are going to see what movie they really like, and it will be a close battle between Damien Chazelle for La La Land and Barry Jenkins for Moonlight. Yes, the three movies have basically split the early critics' awards, but Jenkins has pulled out ahead in most of the contests except the Critics' Choice. It will be close probably all the way until the Oscar, but look for the Globes for an early sign. Mel Gibson and the surprising Tom Ford are just along for the ride, while Manchester by the Sea's Kenneth Lonergan is respected but in the more muted movie.
I'm predicting Chazelle by a nose.
Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical
This is an amusing category that can go anywhere. Recall that last year they were famously mocked for awarding Matt Damon for The Martian. But with no clear Oscar frontrunner even present - Ryan Gosling is the closest thing and he could miss out entirely - they could have a lot of fun here. For example, their quirky foreignness may point to a win by Colin Farrell for the Lobster, though they may also want to be funny and go for Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool. Or this could be a lifetime achievement to Hugh Grant, though I doubt they feel like they owe him anything.
My current pick is Gosling but this is anybody's guess.
Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical
This should be another easy one to call, with Emma Stone the obvious favorite here, although I still have my doubts for Oscar. Meryl Streep is getting the Cecil B. DeMille award anyway, so she won't turn here, and while Annette Bening is criminally overdue for an Oscar win, I could see her missing out on a nomination entirely despite showing up here.
Best Actor in a Drama
This race can easily be called in Casey Affleck's favor, though Andrew Garfield is of course gaining ground for Hacksaw Ridge (and, when you add his good performance in Silence, it obviously helps). The rest, from Joel Edgerton to Viggo Mortensen and even Denzel Washington are along for the ride. Washington has won and received the lifetime achievement Globe last year, whereas the other two are probably here holding someone else's spot and will miss at the Oscars.
Best Actress in a Drama
This is proving to be the hardest category of the night both at the Globes and at the Oscars. Can indie darling Isabelle Huppert pull off what Emanuelle Riva and Charlotte Rampling could not do, with such a difficult and controversial movie? I actually doubt it. The obvious favorite, the one with the best performance, is Natalie Portman, but she has won before. So will they go for overdue? Amy Adams and Jessica Chastain both fit that bill, but the HFPA clearly did not like Arrival that much (it was snubbed in all other major categories except Score), and Miss Sloane is a middling movie. Ruth Negga meanwhile, gives a very quiet performance, so I doubt she has a chance.
Against my better judgment, I'm expecting a Natalie Portman repeat for now.
Best Musical or Comedy
This is your easiest call of the night. La La Land is going to win this in a cakewalk, making it the first movie since The Artist to likely take home this Globe and Best Picture. Wouldn't it be funny if Deadpool scored an upset? It's the kind of movie that would be a funny win if a formidable opponent were not present. The real potential spoiler threat (if there can be said to be one) is Florence Foster Jenkins, with Sing Street and 20th Century Women very long shots.
Best Drama
Here is where Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea will battle it out and try to establish themselves as the La La Land alternative. I think Moonlight will win here easily, but it is not a guarantee. Lion made it because the HFPA loves Harvey - I still have my doubts about whether it will get an Oscar nod - whereas Hacksaw Ridge and Hell or High Water are clearly in contention for one.
Next up: SAG nominations.
Thoughts? Twitter: @jdonbirnam
Instagram: @awards_predix