They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
SAG Stuns La La Land
By J. Don Birnam
December 19, 2016
BoxOfficeProphets.com

It looks so much warmer there than it is here.
On the heels of the Golden Globe nominations, the Screen Actors Guild had a few doozies of their own. The biggest, of course, is that they snubbed La La Land for Best Ensemble. No movie has won Best Picture without this nod since Braveheart did it in the very first year of SAG. So, it's sort of a big deal. Let's see what else they told us.

Expected Players: Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea Alone this Time

It is now only Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight that have run the gamut, and they're doing just fine. The former is doing great with the actors - netting four nods overall from SAG, including finally some recognition for Lucas Hedges in the supporting race. But Moonlight is no slouch, with three nominations, including the two supporting ones it's been netting so far.

It will be a tough race between the two - Manchester is an acting clinic, but Moonlight is very beloved while the other is respected.

Biggest SAG Losers: Silence, Loving, La La Land

Martin Scorsese and Clint Eastwood continue not to do well, and this time Mel Gibson missed out too, with Hacksaw Ridge having space only for Andrew Garfield. I still think it has a Best Picture nod sewn up, but it's a problem.

And an even bigger problem faces Scorsese's Silence. No recognition from Globes or SAG is a huge problem. The Academy has an extra week to vote this year and they may still get to it in their screeners, but it's hanging by a thread at this point. Again, late releases continue to do poorly with precursors, which may affect their overall Oscar chances.

Oh, and whatever happened to Loving? With no recognition here, it appears dead in the water across all fields.

But of course the bigger mystery is La La Land. Can a movie win Best Picture without this? Of course it can. I've always advocated that it's very silly to say that a statistic can stop a movie from winning. Voters don't vote like that. And don't get me started on presidential politics.

On the other hand, people that wanted Gravity, Avatar, The Revenant to win Best Picture dismissed the lack of a SAG Ensemble nod as not important because those are not acting pieces. All those movies lost Best Picture - some of them to movies that actually won the Ensemble prize. And while it's fair that Gravity, for example, isn't an acting movie - La La Land sort of is. It's not just Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone - there's a supporting cast. And a cast of two has never stopped SAG if they like the movie. Just ask the cast of Fences, which received three nods.

Biggest SAG Winners: Fences, Viggo Mortensen, Meryl Streep?

So, Fences has shown up in nearly every precursor and with the SAG ensemble nod, that is solidified. It has a Best Picture nomination in the bag. The question is whether Meryl Streep and Viggo Mortensen, who showed up at SAG and the Globe, can turn that into an Oscar nomination?

It's very strange to see Streep here - no one saw this coming. Meryl has never been nominated for Globe and SAG and missed out on the Oscar nomination. But I think this will be the first. The Globe nod is comedy, and the category is just too packed.

Mortensen, on the other hand, seems solid in a weaker race. I fully expect him to be nominated for Captain Fantastic, which is a true delight.

Early SAG Predictions

Best Supporting Actress

So this race netted us the same exact five as the Globes race, so you can pretty much count on them being the Academy final five. There really is no one else to challenge them. So it seems like Viola Davis's race still, and like with the Globes you cannot eliminate Naomie Harris, who is more transformative but misses the Oscar-worthy scene. Michelle Williams could be an overdue winner since Davis has won at SAG. And, like with the Globes, past winners Nicole Kidman (Lion) and Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures) will not add another SAG to their total. The interesting question here is whether one actress will win both of the precursors. If the does, it's game over. If not, then it's a horserace.

Best Supporting Actor

This was the weird category at the Globes, but SAG did it better. Frontrunner Mahershal Ali showed up alongside Jeff Bridges, who remains in second. The beneficiary of category fraud this time continues to beDev Patel, who now seems like a lock as well. SAG moved Hugh Grant here, where he will probably end up at the Oscars if he makes it in, and finally Lucas Hedges of Manchester got some recognition.

If I had to guess I'd say this is the Oscar five, though Ben Foster from Hell or High Water could steal one here. Still, it's Ali's all the way to the bank right now, though I'd vote for Hedges.

Best Actor

This race is again gelling up in the same place more or less. They matched four of the Globes' five drama races, giving Casey Affleck, Andrew Garfield, Viggo Mortensen and Denzel Washington a repeat from the Globes. It's hard to see any of these missing and it seems like Garfield is definitely not getting in for Silence. The fifth slot at SAG went to Ryan Gosling, bumping Edgerton from Loving. I can't imagine Edgerton getting in at the Oscars as Loving fades, and Tom Hanks for Sully seems out as well. So again, this very well could be the final five.

Best Actress

The Globes had a weird supporting actor race, the SAG has - again - a weird Actress race. Remember Helen Mirren and Sarah Silverman last year? Yeah, neither do they.

So, the repeat players are Natalie Portman, Emma Stone, and Amy Adams. I can't imagine any of these missing. The surprises here were Emily Blunt and Meryl Streep. I don't think anyone respects SAG for these strange choices. Simply put, neither is meritorious, certainly not over Isabelle Huppert, Jessica Chastain or Ruth Negga. So the final Oscar five remain a mystery, but I remain convinced that Portman is going to triumph again. It's just a meatier, more transformative role. They love it if you play a real life person, etc. If Stone or Adams start winning precursors I'll change my mind but for now, this is my pick.

Best Ensemble

So again, the big story here is in the main category, where it's anybody's game, sort of. Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea made it in and this time are accompanied by Fences, Captain Fantastic, and Hidden Figures. The last of these makes sense because it's a true ensemble and a very touching, moving movie. Fantastic is, well, Fantastic, and is also an ensemble piece like Little Miss Sunshine. A win is not out of the question but I can't imagine they pass up a chance to recognize the main contenders.

Could Fences pull it off? Yes, absolutely. It's an acting clinic. It has two of the best performances of the year by far.

But I still think it's between Manchester and Moonlight. Logic says Manchester will win - it has more nominations here and it is an actor's showcase. Moonlight is more a director's movie, the acting is more muted. Against my better judgment I'm going to say Moonlight for now, but this could change.

The question that will continue to weigh on our minds is…will the lack of that pesky Ensemble nomination somehow sink La La Land? Tune in to find out.

Thoughts? Twitter: @jdonbirnam
Instagram: @awards_predix