They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
Final Oscar Nominations Predictions
By J Don Birnam
January 23, 2017
BoxOfficeProphets.com

They'll be dancing on air tomorrow, we bet.
There is a new President, but the machine of Hollywood awards waits for no man. On Tuesday, the Academy will reveal the nominees for the 89th Academy Awards. Change is indeed afoot: voters were given an extra week to see potential films, so hopefully their horizons were broadened; the increase in membership by roughly 500 or so new people, aimed at diversifying the ranks of the Academy, also makes things harder to predict; finally, the nominations will not be done live, but by a pre-recorded video. I don’t think that is a good idea, but that is the future, I suppose.

So here are our final predictions for nominations, alphabetically by category. I’ll be reacting to the nominations on Twitter and Instagram, as usual. Our final power rankings are here and also linked below where relevant.

As you know, the Academy Awards nominations always have surprises. While the results themselves have been more and more predictable, the nominations always throw surprises because we haven’t really seen these voters speak more than on a handful of occasions in limited categories. The acting and directing categories seem to have four of their five slots locked, but expect surprises here on Tuesday.

Here are my nominees in 21 categories (all but the shorts). It is clear that La La Land, Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea will dominate the day, as they have since they were seen by the festival audiences in the fall. The open questions are whether La La Land can grab 15 nominations and break the record currently held by Titanic and Ben-Hur. It already broke Globes records. The other question is which director will take that fifth slot? There are many choices to pick from and that branch likes foreigners, so watch out. Something totally wacky can happen there and I’m going out on an insane limb and predicting I, Daniel Blake’s Ken Loach.

With no two tech heavy films like we had last year with Mad Max and The Revenant, it seems like the tech love is going to be spread out much more this year.

And there is the diversity question. Two years in a row, #OscarsSoWhite dominated the conversation and put a stain on the entire thing. This year, Moonlight is going to get several nominations, so it won’t be a lily white cast again. But the question will still be how much more do we see? Two other movies with African American stories - Fences and Hidden Figures - have shots. That’s not even discussing Loving. Will the Academy go there?

There are a lot of conversations one can have about how the election and events in 2016 may intersect and interact with what voters will or will not do. Will documentaries about the environment (The Ivory Game) and civil rights (The 13th, O.J.) dominate, or will they go for the more uplifting (Life, Animated)? The same can be asked about foreign films. Will they go for movies about current world anxieties and sexism (Toni Erdmann), or will it be their love for World War II/Nazi movies that dominates again (Land of Mine)? Overall (though of course there are exceptions), the Academy is usually very conservative and likes the kitten in the teacup more than the issues movies. The exceptions seem to arise when the political environment gets sufficiently bad for their tastes (i.e. the last Bush years), so maybe we are about to see a realignment.

For Best Picture I’m going to stick with eight, which is what they’ve had the last two years. Mathematically, it is clear that ten is very hard. I suppose I could see nine, if Hacksaw Ridge survives. But there is always a surprise or a miss, so the question is which one of these eight looks the most fragile? I think that is clearly Fences. This means we could even see seven nominees.

And, though it’s not over yet, my “top 5” list from last year is looking pretty bad. There, I had Birth of a Nation and Silence, as well as The Founder and Girl on a Train. Maybe Marty will help me save face.

We’ll dissect all of that following the announcements.

Best Foreign Language Film
Land of Mine (Denmark)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
The Salesman (Iran)
Tanna (Australia)
Toni Erdmann (Germany)
Alt: My Life as a Zucchini (Switzerland)

Best Documentary Feature Film
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th
Alt: Weiner

Best Animated Feature Film
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Alt: Sing

Best Make-Up And Hairstyling
Florence Foster Jenkins
Deadpool
A Man Called Ove
Alt: Hail! Caesar

Best Visual Effects
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Rogue One
Alt: Kubo and the Two Strings

Best Sound Mixing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One
Alt: Silence

Best Sound Editing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One
Alt: Hell or High Water

Best Original Song
“Audition” – La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls
“City of Stars” – La La Land
“How Far I’ll Go” – Moana
“Runnin” – Hidden Figures
Alt: “Faith” – Sing

Best Original Score
Arrival
Hidden Figures
Jackie
La La Land
Moonlight
Alt: Lion

Best Costume Design
The Dressmaker
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hail! Caesar
Jackie
La La Land
Alt: Hidden Figures

Best Production Design
Fantastic Beasts
Florence Foster Jenkins
The Handmaiden
La La Land
Nocturnal Animals
Alt: Jackie

Best Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
Silence
Alt: Lion

Best Film Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
Alt: Manchester by the Sea

Best Original Screenplay
Captain Fantastic
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Toni Erdmann
Alt: The Lobster

Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
Alt: Lion

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel – Lion
Alt: Aaron Taylor Johnson – Nocturnal Animals

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis – Fences
Naomie Harris – Moonlight
Nicole Kidman – Lion
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
Alt: Janelle Monae – Hidden Figures
This could be the first time three black actresses are nominated in one category

Best Actor
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington – Fences
Alt: Joel Edgerton – Loving

Best Actress
Amy Adams – Arrival
Annette Bening – 20th Century Women
Natalie Portman – Jackie
Emma Stone – La La Land
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
Alt: Isabelle Huppert – Elle
This is a crazy category. Emily Blunt could make it in.

Best Director
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Ken Loach – I, Daniel Blake
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneueve – Arrival
Alt: Garth Davis – Lion
If you’re trying to win predictions contests DO NOT predict Loach

Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Manchester by the Sea
Alt: Hacksaw Ridge