They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
Guild Weekend Brings Oscar Race Into Focus
By J. Don Birnam
January 30, 2017
BoxOfficeProphets.com
The Eddie Awards’ Split Decision
As we mentioned during our predictions post, and many times before, the Editors are one of the most important branches of the Academy. In the last 26 years, 20 of the winners of an ACE Eddie for editing went on to win Best Editing at the Oscars. Ten of those also won Best Picture.
But with two categories here, it is not entirely clear what the awards mean this year, particularly since the frontrunner, La La Land, was in the easier comedy category. So, just as we predicted last week, La La Land took home the prize for Best Edited Comedy, while Arrival walked home with that statuette in Best Drama. Are those necessarily the best edited movies in their races? Perhaps not, but the Editors know they are important, so they normally will go for their favorite films, not necessarily the Best Edited, like some guilds may be more willing to do.
So what does it mean? Well, for starters, it of course means La La Land is cruising to the win. And what does it mean for the Best Editing Oscar? That is harder to tell. Arrival certainly has a chance to upset the frontrunner there, and it may be the only place they find to reward that very respected movie. But watch out for those surprise years, like when action movies such as The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo came out of nowhere. I still think Hacksaw Ridge has a shot, but we analyze this more fully in future posts.
Meanwhile, in other categories, the Editors went with Zootopia and O.J.: Made in America as the Best Edited Animated and Documentary Features, respectively. Get used to those two names also, as we will be hearing and reading a lot about them.
The Producers Seal It?
Then, on Saturday, the ever important Producers Guild of America spoke and they also went for - wait for it - La La Land, of course. Are we surprised? Not really. I called it, sure, but then again so did everyone else. Does it mean that the Oscar race is over? I mean, to the extent it wasn’t already, yes. Sure, The Big Short won here and still lost the Oscar, but that has only happened once since the move to the preferential ballot.
Remember that under that ballot people rank their choices, not just vote for their favorite film. The only other guild to go this way is the PGA. So, to the extent they are an experiment for how a movie does under this system, their predictive value cannot be understated. I think it would take a cataclysm of historic proportions in this awards race to see something else triumph at this point.
Oh, and by the way, Zootopia and O.J. won also in their categories. It’s that sealed, it seems.
The bigger story of the night, apparently, was the politicization of the event, with several actors speaking out against the Executive Order regarding refugees and immigrants from certain countries. After the Globes politicization, one wonders how much steam this train is going to have. It is possible that by February 26th the industry will be sick of it. Then again, with everything happening, maybe not.
Hidden Figures Stuns at SAG
Last but not least of course were the SAG Awards on Sunday. The big story of the night of course was that Hidden Figures triumphed there, which seemed to be a fitting end to a show that contained political speeches all night. An emotional Taraji P. Henson stood up along her fellow cast members to celebrate inclusion, diversity, and achievement. It was a moving and touching moment, though one that is unlikely to be repeated this awards season. With no BAFTA nod and no Best Director nomination at the Oscars, it just doesn’t seem “highbrow” enough for them. Not that La La Land is, but whatever. The win for the feel-good movie reminds me of when The Help won here. It was a true ensemble, a liked movie, and one that had no chance at the Oscars. I expect this same pattern to hold.
The other acting races went more or less as expected. Emma Stone triumphed for La La Land, and some will try to say that she only won because this was the only space they could reward the musical, but don’t believe it. She has won the Globe and now this, and is very likely to triumph at BAFTA too, where the portrayal of an American First Lady is unlikely to resonate. Her path to the Oscar is clear and free of any impediment.
Slightly surprising was Denzel Washington’s win for Fences. Casey Affleck was the favorite but with the allegations of sexual harassment, his tepid campaigning, and the fact that Washington had never won here, all combined to make it a problem for the Manchester by the Sea actor. Can this happen again at the Oscars? It will be harder to tell. Washington has two Oscars already, so he’s not overdue. But the temptation to have three black actors win for the first time ever may be enough to make the Academy go for him, and it would be deserved. He’s very good in Fences. It will be the only interesting race left to watch this year.
Viola Davis and Mahershala Ali triumphed early for Fences and Moonlight, respectively, as both continue their pretty unstoppable march to the podium at the Academy Awards. Both gave overtly political speeches, particularly Ali with respect to religion and tolerance. All of this was in keeping in line with the political speeches of the TV winners earlier in the night.
Next Up: The Directors
The Directors Guild of America is the last of the important trifecta, and they will hand out their awards this coming Saturday. There, the nominees are the main three - Damien Chazelle, Barry Jenkins, and Kenneth Lonergan for La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea. respectively. They are joined, as they are in the Oscar race, by Denis Villeneuve for Arrival, and by Garth Davis, who directed Lion but did not get an Oscar nomination.
Do you have any doubt as to who is going to win? Not really. Yes, the splits have become much more common in recent years, but there are arguably reasons for that, most of which have to do with the nature of the movies in the race. For example, there have been masterful directorial technical achievements that didn’t quite carry the “prestige” title to push them through to the very top.
That is not the case this year. There is no Revenant or Gravity and, indeed, arguably La La Land is that story. It took Chazelle a lot to make and it is mostly a fruit of his imagination. I’m not sold on the La La Land Best Picture train, but if it deserves one award it is likely this one for its immensely talented young director. I predict he will win this Saturday, and then again on February 26th.
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